Talking Europe

France's public debt is very much in the spotlight. The country's recently appointed prime minister, Michel Barnier, calls it a "sword of Damocles" hanging over future generations. Indeed, for many countries, paying interest on the national debt deprives them of investing in education, healthcare, research and so on. Similar debates are happening across the EU, as the European Commission asks member states to submit their debt reduction plans. We ask Jean-Claude Trichet, former president of the European Central Bank (ECB), for his read on the debt situation, and on prospects for an overall European recovery. We also touch on EU-China relations, as a tensions come to a head over the issue of China subsidising the electric vehicles that it exports to Europe.

On China and the EU, Trichet says: "Overall, it seems to me that the position of the Europeans is not the position of the US, and rightly so, because we have absolutely no interest in embarking in a drama at that level. We are much more open than the US. We depend much more for our growth on external trade. That being said, of course we have to defend our interests in the best fashion possible. There are nuances between the various European countries because they don't have exactly the same relationship with China. But it seems to me that we all agree on the fact that we should not have any dramatic break in our relationship with China. That would be a big, big mistake."

Asked whether the European Central Bank should cut interest rates to stimulate the eurozone economy, Trichet replies: "As a former president of the central bank, I never give advice to my colleagues. I would only mention the fact that the market, which considered that it was extremely unlikely that the central bank would decrease rates, is now considering that it might be more likely, particularly after we had the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) figures, because the PMI figures were not good. The figures for September signal some kind of contraction of the economy."

On the other hand, Trichet notes that there is relatively good news on inflation. "We are now below 2 percent as regards headline inflation. Core inflation is also going down. It's doing so slowly, but it's going down. So it means that the ECB is on the right road towards stability."

Asked about the French prime minister's debt reduction targets, Trichet states that they are "not only realistic, but absolutely necessary, because the situation is grave. We have the highest level of public spending as a proportion of GDP in the euro area. And we have a level of outstanding debt which is number three in Europe, after Italy and Greece. So this says a lot, and things have to be tackled very resolutely."

Trichet is upbeat about Barnier's chances of getting a budget through a partly hostile parliament, however.

"It seems to me that there is a change in French public opinion; a rediscovery that we have to take our debt very seriously. You can see that, for example, in the editorials of major newspapers. There is a change in the psyche of France. From that standpoint, I think the prime minister is now more likely to get a majority [in parliament], or at least to not to face a motion of censure."

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown

It has been one year since Israel suffered its worst ever terrorist attack, with Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups killing more than 1,000 Israelis and taking more than 250 hostage. Israel's response has devastated Gaza, displacing most of the population and killing more than 41,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities. Meanwhile, Lebanon has been hit hard by the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel eviscerating the Hezbollah leadership, in response to which Iran launched a massive missile strike against Israel. The EU has recognised Israel’s right to defend itself, while also warning against an "uncontrollable regional escalation". But beyond such statements, and besides providing financial or humanitarian aid, what can the EU actually do? We discuss this with two MEPs.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Isabelle Romero

Talking Europe sits down with one of the most high-profile EU Commission presidents of modern times, Jean-Claude Juncker, who was in office from 2014 to 2019. He shares his thoughts on Ursula von der Leyen's second European Commission and the challenges facing Europe, from migration to Ukraine and the Middle East. Juncker, who had plenty of one-on-one time with Vladimir Putin, says he is "deeply disappointed" by the Russian president, but that it is still important give peace a chance, with the aid of "skilful diplomats".

On Ukraine, Juncker says: "I think that the time has come to put all the cards on the table and to try to bring the situation on the ground to a peace-oriented solution. Because the war is leading nowhere."

"It's difficult, but peace has a chance, if diplomats, foreign ministers, prime ministers and presidents all play their part."

"I had many, many, hours of private eye-to-eye meetings with Vladimir Putin," Juncker continues. "He's fluent in German, so we didn’t need interpreters. I’m deeply disappointed by his behaviour – and that's the least one can say. But nevertheless, I do think that we need skilful diplomats to try to bring this awful war to an end."

Juncker insists skilful diplomacy is needed in the Middle East as well.

"We (Europeans) should produce more noise. And we should visit the parties to the conflict and ask them to consider it from a different point of view. To put themselves in the situation of the victims of these wars. To put themselves in the place of the children who are losing their lives. Perhaps then they would behave in a different way."

Juncker says that Michel Barnier, a man he knows well, "will be an excellent prime minister" of France. "He was an EU commissioner. He was a minister of foreign affairs, of agriculture. And he was the negotiator of the European Union when it came to Brexit. And there he was showing that he has talents that others don't have. He was speaking to everyone: prime ministers, national parliaments, trade unions, the European Parliament and all the countries involved."

Speaking about the new French interior minister's hardline rhetoric on immigration, Juncker affirms that a government minister "cannot change the migration pact which was adopted by 27 EU governments two or three months ago. And the French prime minister can make a point of order, if he feels that is necessary. So I'm not worried about that. But I am concerned by the fact that some of the representatives of the classical parties are echoing the extreme-right parties. Because the general public cannot really make the difference between what is said by the extreme-right parties and by the more centrist parties. So I don't like the wording used by some."

Asked about the new EU Commission line-up and the apparent loss of French influence – Stéphane Séjourné managing fewer portfolios than his predecessor, Thierry Breton – Juncker states: "This happens from time to time. Sometimes the commissioner of the same country had very different competencies and portfolios. There is no rule that the French commissioner – the so-called French commissioner – has to have the same competencies and attributions as his predecessors. Commissioners are not the representatives of their country."

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats and Elitsa Gadeva

One in four adults in the EU have a disability, according to Eurostat. That's more than 100 million people. And while this summer's Paralympics no doubt drew attention to the issue in a visible way, the daily struggles of so many people remain largely invisible. Indeed, access to employment and healthcare is not equal, and neither is the risk of poverty and social exclusion. In the portfolios unveiled in Ursula von der Leyen's new European Commission, there is now no longer a specific mention of disabilities. We delve into the issue with two MEPs.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats and Elitsa Gadeva

The new French government faces many challenges, including questions about its democratic legitimacy, and a public debt which has worried France’s EU partners. We discuss the economic outlook with former Spanish foreign minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya, who is now dean of the Paris School of International Affairs. We also look at Ursula von der Leyen’s new line-up at the European Commission, and the current geopolitical challenges that the EU is facing including migration and the conflict in the Middle East. 

France's debt 

France's public debt is likely to rise this year to up to 5.6%, instead of falling, according to finance ministry figures. For Gonzalez Laya, debt needs to be well managed to avoid “handicapping future generations from progressing economically.”  

She adds that, to get the debt under control, “everyone needs to behave on the budget side, on the deficit side, on the fiscal side.” She warns that if France fails to do so, “it will limit the ability of France to be very offensive in the budget discussions that will open in 2025 for the future European budget.”  

French influence in the EU commission  

The new French commissioner, former foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné, will control fewer portfolios in Ursula von der Leyen’s new Commission than his predecessor, Thierry Breton. Asked if France has lost influence, Gonzalez Laya jokes that, for the French, “it’s a national sport to consider themselves belittled.” She notes that Séjourné’s portfolio “is the central priority of this European Commission, which is the economic recovery of Europe,” adding that he still has “two big chunks: macroeconomics and also microeconomics. The entire industrial portfolio.”  

Séjourné “will have to work hand in hand with the Spanish commissioner, Teresa Ribera, who will be in charge of aligning the economy with Europe’s decarbonisation objectives and social justice,” she says.  

“The two commissioners have the very important task of reigniting the European economic engine, because there is no geopolitics in Europe if we are not strong economically,” Gonzalez Laya states.   

The progressive agenda   

Asked if the progressive agenda has been pushed back in the new, more right-leaning EU Commission – with previous roles on jobs and social rights, equality, and the Green Deal seemingly being watered down – Gonzalez Laya says, “If social justice is not at the heart of the European project, the European project will not have legitimacy. The last five years showed that we need a better dosage between competitiveness, decarbonisation and social justice. Without this social justice piece, we will have trouble advancing competitiveness and decarbonisation.”  

Border control & migration  

As Germany reintroduces border controls and the Netherlands asks to opt out of common asylum rules, immigration is once again at the heart of the debate in Europe.  

“We have to tackle the problem of irregular migrants,” affirms Gonzalez Laya. “We have to be very clear that whoever is rejected asylum has to leave the European space.”  

But she adds that migration must remain “one of the key factors of our competitiveness. If we do not integrate the topic in our discussions, we are going to have big legitimacy trouble again in Europe.”  

Gonzalez Laya concludes that Europe “should stay firm on irregular migration and give ourselves the means to control our borders better,” but that “we should also talk about migration for what it is – an enormous necessity in Europe.”   

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown, Elitsa Gadeva and Isabelle Romero 

Few EU presidencies have rocked the bloc as much as the current one, held by Hungary. European leaders, many MEPs, and EU Commissioners, were rattled by what Prime Minister Viktor Orban called his peace mission in July, which included a meeting with President Zelensky of Ukraine – but also with Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.  And at the beginning of September, several European governments publicly questioned whether the Hungarian leadership respected European values. Meanwhile, a row continues to brew between Brussels and Budapest over the issue of migrants. We take stock of Hungary’s rotating presidency at its half-way point.

 

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Perrine Desplats

Socialist veteran Elio Di Rupo has an unusual CV. He was an MEP back in 1989; he then held many high-level jobs in Belgium, including that of prime minister from 2011 to 2014, before returning to the European Parliament in this new five-year mandate. We ask him how the role of an MEP has changed since his first stint at the European Parliament, and what his priorities are for this next term. We also touch on the latest migrant-related tensions in the EU and the political and economic challenges in Belgium, which, like France, is under surveillance from the European Commission over its public debt.

Asked why he decided to stand for the European Parliament after holding top jobs nationally, including prime minister of Belgium and minister-president of Wallonia, Di Rupo responds: "Because now the European Parliament has a very crucial role; a role of co-decision [with the EU Council]. It's also the place where MEPs represent the European population. And we need a place where people can speak not only about politics, but about the reality of the lives of our population. In Europe, there is a lot of poverty and a lot of problems. Sometimes one has the impression that the European institutions are far away from that reality."

Like France, Belgium is under surveillance by the European Commission over its excessive public debt. Di Rupo does not see an easy way out. "In general, I am for a balanced budget," he states. "But the situation in Belgium is also due to Covid; the floods; and a lack of investment. We can do better in balancing the budget. But my feeling is that a four to seven-year period for dealing with the debt or deficit is a very short time. And there is another big problem. We have to construct European defence. We have to invest in cutting-edge technology. We have to face climate change and the decarbonisation of our economy. How are we going to match these priorities with the budget? Because if you look at Europe globally, it has fallen behind its competitors."

Di Rupo touches on the standoff between the EU and the Hungarian government, which is threatening to sending buses of asylum seekers to Brussels, in retaliation for fines that the EU has slapped on Prime Minister Viktor Orban's administration over the latter's non-compliance with common asylum legislation.

"Orban is one of the main problems in Europe now, especially with the war in Ukraine. You know, the far right is always provoking the situation, to show that they are the strong men or women, capable of solving problems. But that's not the reality. So I understand the reaction of the mayor of Brussels [who has called for the buses to be blocked at the Belgian border]." At the same time, Di Rupo concedes that "migration is very difficult. There is no simple solution. We have to take into account the suffering of the population and we cannot say, 'OK, we fully open the border and that’s it.' So we have to find a middle way; a just way."

Asked about the current attempts to form a coalition government in Belgium, Di Rupo says: "We have to be patient because they are talking, discussing. And we also have a municipal election on October 13. The negotiators may be waiting for this election before setting up the government. When I was prime minister, we had six political parties, and we did institutional reforms with eight political parties. That's the way Belgium solves problems."

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown

Ukraine is continuing its ground offensive in Russia's Kursk region, and pursuing drone attacks deep inside Russian territory – signaling a more assertive approach. At the same time, Russian forces have advanced in eastern Ukraine, piling pressure on the country's war effort. We ask how the EU should respond to this situation, and whether the limits imposed on Ukraine's use of Western long-range weapons should be lifted. Plus, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz moots peace talks that would include Russia, we weigh in on the timing and meaning of his remarks.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown

The nomination of Michel Barnier, a veteran of both French and EU politics, to the post of French prime minister, is “a surprise and a delicate gamble” by French president Emmanuel Macron. That’s according to our guest in Talking Europe, economist and political analyst Jean Pisani-Ferry. He tells Armen Georgian that the new French government will not be able to avoid difficult decisions, especially when it comes to the country’s alarming budget deficit. “We can’t afford to navigate with a short-term perspective,” Pisani-Ferry says.

“Barnier doesn’t have the support of a majority in parliament. He’s been appointed with the promise that the (far right) National Rally will not introduce a vote of no-confidence immediately. And obviously the left is absolutely furious. So he’s in a precarious situation,” Pisani-Ferry asserts. “But from a European standpoint, it’s different. There must be relief in European capitals and in Brussels because Barnier knows Europe. He’s pro-European. He’s experienced. So there is an element of stability.” 

But there isn’t likely to be a honeymoon for the French government led by Barnier. “It will have to tackle the issues that are on the table, otherwise not only will the EU object, but markets will object too,” Pisani-Ferry says. “There was not much effort by Macron to rein in public spending. And there was a taboo on raising taxes. Actually, there was a lowering of taxes. The bet was that this would eventually be balanced out by higher economic productivity, and that that would generate revenue. But that bet failed. Businesses actually become less productive; the level is down some five percentage points compared to the pre-Covid trend, which is huge! So Barnier is facing a major adjustment.” 

Pisani-Ferry agrees that there is a major challenge in terms of Franco-German leadership in Europe, given the political turbulence in France and the recent gains by the German far right AfD in regional and state elections. 

“The Franco-German ‘motor’ may not be over, but it is not functioning at full speed,” Pisani-Ferry affirms. “On both sides, you have a significant lack of leadership. You have a lack of support domestically, that will necessarily impact on the initiatives that can be taken at the European level. That’s a first. Because in the past, each time one of the two partners was weaker, the other was stronger. And now they are both weak at the same time. And so the big challenge for the EU institutions is, can they live without this Franco-German motor?” 

 

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Elitsa Gadeva and Luke Brown 

It hasn’t been smooth sailing this summer for Ursula von der Leyen, who was voted in as EU Commission president for a second term in July.  She had asked national capitals to put forward two candidates for her new Commission, one female and one male, so that she could ensure full gender parity in her 27-member college. But some governments have flat-out ignored her request, as other factors are more important to them – renewing a trusted heavyweight who’s already in place, or respecting national party-political traditions or conventions. In addition to this challenge to her authority, von der Leyen will have a major political in-tray to manage once her commissioners are eventually confirmed this autumn. Indeed, she herself says that the decisions taken in this new five-year EU mandate will determine Europe’s place in the world for the next fifty years. 

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Elitsa Gadeva, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown