TechCheck

AI startups are continuing to raise money by the bucketful. This time, it’s the chatbot maker Anthropic, which is reportedly in talks to raise $2 billion from Google and other companies, giving it an eye-popping $20 billion to $30 billion valuation. Plus, two of Biden’s top antitrust regulators gave an update today on the administration’s efforts to hold big tech accountable, just a few weeks into the DOJ’s landmark case against Google. The DOJ’s Jonathan Kanter said he’s been surprised about how many comments in his case are coming from ordinary workers, and the FTC’s Lina Khan talked about the failure to push back against corporate consolidation. 

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Shares of Apple are up fractionally today despite a rare downgrade from KeyBanc - laying out an alternative view from what most analyst have been saying going into Apple's most important quarter of the year. The analyst joined Tech Check, describing his concerns including rich valuations nearing all-time-highs, U.S. iPhone sales softening, and international growth under pressure. 

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Nvidia’s new strategy to dominate the future of AI might lie in the cloud. A report from The Information says Nvidia talked to at least one data center owner about leasing space to power its own cloud service - requiring major investment but could also be a big source of new revenue. Plus, Microsoft will soon try to generate meaningful sales directly from AI with the launch of its new AI assistant Co-Pilot for business customers. It costs nearly $30 per user per month, but some customers testing an early version say they’re seeing a big boost to productivity. 

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After a big September selloff, megacap tech stocks might be cheap again. P/E ratios have fallen steeply and are at their biggest discount since Jan. 2017 as analysts continue to boost their earnings estimates for the next fiscal year, according to Goldman Sachs. Plus, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella today took the stand in the DOJ’s antitrust trial against Google, and explained why it’s so hard to compete against the tech giant’s search engine dominance. 

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President Biden signaled an aggressive new agenda to curb the power of companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta when he appointed Lina Khan, Jonathan Kanter, and Tim Wu – a trio of the toughest antitrust regulators to hold them accountable. Instead, two years in, big tech is bigger and more powerful than ever. This week on Tech Check, we dive into the toothless regulators and their upcoming showdowns that could be make-or-break for them, and for the dominance of big tech. 

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As Q3 inches to a close, tech stocks have had a rough end to the summer and a rough ride lower in September. But Apple is really the culprit, because of its oversized weighting in broader. Plus, though China has been a key overhang for the market, there are signs beneath the headlines that American companies are still making inroads, as Nike reports tailwinds from Chinese consumers, and Chinese internet regulators propose relaxing rules on data flows abroad.  

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The FTC is now targeting Amazon in a new antitrust suit, alleging it’s running an illegal monopoly, with Lina Khan saying the e-commerce giant’s tactics deprive rivals of the ability to gain customers. But Amazon might actually now be facing more competition than ever - including from upstarts like Shopify, which just announced an investment in wholesale platform Faire, further entrenching Shopify as an Amazon alternative for sellers. 

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The FTC and 17 states filed a antitrust suit today alleging Amazon inflates online prices and overcharges sellers. The agency and FTC chair Lina Khan’s credibility are at stake in this massive case. Khan badly needs a win -- she made her name in law school by targeting the tech giant, but during her tenure, she’s only allowed the Prime ecosystem to get stronger and more entrenched. 

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Amazon is investing up to $4 billion in startup Anthropic as it looks to stake a claim in the AI arms race. Both stand to benefit: Amazon, with a buzzy customer for its custom AI chips and a minority stake in one of the early applications of generative AI, while Anthropic gets a big backer and AWS’ compute power. This isn’t, however, the exclusive partnership with Microsoft and OpenAI inked earlier this year, since Anthropic already received a partnership and investment from Google in May. 

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