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Tesla fan boys destroyed: Part 4 - why internal combustion will dominate


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Internal combustion, dudes: It’s going to underpin transportation for decades to come. If you think internal combustion is dead, it’s time to get on the plane, leave Fantasy Island, and return to the real world.  

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Many fan-boys use that term ‘Legacy carmakers’. (To describe the manufacturers of internal combustion vehicles.)   Legacy: Like EVs have won the battle. And the dinosaurs are dead - they just don’t know it yet.   ‘Legacy’ means (as an adjective): superseded but difficult to replace because of its wide use. I’m not seeing that, in respect of internal combustion.   There is a giant industry operating worldwide - the oil industry. It produces roughly 100 million barrels of oil per day. That’s 16 billion litres per day. 16 million cubic metres. That’s a box of crude oil 40 metres by 40 metres at the base, and stretching 10 kilometres into the air, which is 10 or 12 per cent taller than Mt Everest. And about half of that oil becomes gasoline. Eight billion cubic metres of gasoline - per day.  And it’s cheap. Now, I know climate change is real, but when you look at the sheer size of the oil industry, and the incredible economic edge - combustion versus electric - tht top is not going off, nor being throttled back any time soon. It’s just not.  In fact, the Coronavirus has done more to reduce oil consumption than Tesla could conceivably hope to. (Between 2019 and 2020, crude oil production dropped roughly nine million barrels per day.) These oil data are according to the US Energy Information Administration.  And that alone should convince you of the security of internal combustion as the fundamental means of transportation for decades to come. Here’s another reason, if one’s not enough.  Also in the pesky domain of ontology: Global vehicle production in 2019 was 92.8 million vehicles. That’s global vehicle production, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.  That’s a lot of cars. If you parked them all in a conga line, it would encircle the planet. Twelve lanes wide...  Global EV production 2019: 2.1 million EVs. That’s according to the International Energy Agency. Of those EVs, roughly one in six was a Tesla. (365,300 Teslas were produced in 2019.)  Therefore, total EVs were about 2.3 per cent of global automobile production. That’s not the proportion of EVs actually on the road, in service, which is far less. It’s the latest full-year new vehicle production data. 2.3 per cent of new cars are EVs.  Tesla makes roughly four cars for every thousand cars currently produced globally. This is a very curious position from which even a devoted advocate for the brand could hope to declare dominance.  If, over the next 10 years, EVs grow 10-fold, they’ll represent a quarter of global vehicle production. We might actually see that. And in cities, this would be a really good thing.   What we will certainly see is: increasing choice in the energy mix of cars available new. More hybrids and plug-in hybrids, more full battery EVs, and a smattering of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also. Underpinned by a foundation of internal combustion vehicles.

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AutoExpertBy John Cadogan

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