The Afghan Eye

On 1st December 2023, the Taliban's ambassador was greeted by an official at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Bilal Karimi formally presented his credentials to and was received by Hong Lei: the Director General of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Protocol Department.

The picture was shared triumphantly by the Taliban on X (formerly known as Twitter) and thereafter quickly circulated across social media as it was reported by various global outlets. Analysts and commentators quickly jumped onto the discussion, debating whether the meeting and reception of the Taliban's ambassador constituted Beijing's official recognition, by extension, of the Taliban's government. If so, it would make China the first country to recognise the Taliban, and would mark a huge victory for the group in their hitherto unsuccessful quest for international acceptance.

In this episode, Ahmed-Waleed Kakar examines the meeting and the underlying context behind the widely perceived official recognition of the Taliban by China. Did this meeting really mean the official recognition of the Taliban and if so, what did it mean for Afghanistan and the region? What was the larger context of the Taliban's control over foreign embassies staffed by the previous regime's diplomats? What is the nature of the bilateral relationship between the Taliban and Beijing, and the various factors and common interests influencing these?

Links/references:

China formally receives Afghan (Taliban) ambassador: https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-say-afghan-embassy-in-india-set-to-resume-operations-soon/7377115.html

Taliban 'handed keys' to embassy in India: https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/afghan-embassy-delhi-taliban-zakia-wardak-b2456762.html

Trilateral summit statement: https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202305/t20230509_11073522.html

Taliban open to joining the Belt and Road Initiative: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-says-plans-formally-join-chinas-belt-road-initiative-2023-10-19/

Taliban sign mining contracts: https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-taliban-mining-contract-dfd109247a44e46a9d41d8e1db76e541

Mullah Hassan welcomes newly appointed Chinese ambassador: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/taliban-gives-a-warm-welcome-to-chinas-new-ambassador-to-afghanistan

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On 24th November 2023, a conference was convened in the Russian capital of Moscow. Attendees included Russian politicians and an Iranian government representative. The conference was also attended by a number of exiled Afghan politicians: Shukria Barakzai, Fawzia Koofi, Muhammad Muhaqqiq, Ahmad Wali Massoud, and Ahmad Massoud.

The event follows months of conflicting statements made by Russian officials about Afghanistan. In particular, Russian Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov has repeatedly reprimanded the Afghan government and highlighted its lack of ethnopolitical inclusivity. At the same time, Kabulov has stressed the need for engagement with Kabul and praised its counter-narcotics efforts as well as its ongoing campaign against Daesh (ISKP).

What is driving Russia's seemingly mixed signals to Kabul? Ahmed-Waleed Kakar examines the conferences, and assesses what it reveals and signifies about Russo-Afghan relations.

Links/references:

Massoud’s speech at the Moscow Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsUL230Px3c&t=4s

Kabulov: The Afghan government is currently not inclusive. Link: https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-183805

Kabulov: The Taliban must ensure ethnopolitical inclusivity for recognition. https://tass.com/politics/1681639?

Kazan Declaration: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1906997/

Kabulov: Ethnic minorities are over half of the Afghan population.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/ties-with-afghanistan-should-not-be-hostage-to-taliban-recognition-russian-president-s-envoy/3017031#

Russian Ambassador meets Afghan Foreign Minister. https://twitter.com/HafizZiaAhmad/status/1728399725706281378

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On 6th November 2023, senior and former American diplomat Annie Pforzheimer wrote an article for World Politics Review. In the article, Pforzheimer, who has previously worked extensively as an American diplomat in Afghanistan, highlighted the signs that the Biden Administration was mulling widening and upgrading its ties with the Taliban, now the government of Afghanistan. Pforzheimer argued that, based on lingering concerns regarding human rights as well as the Taliban's perceived ties to terrorist organisations, that Washington ought to desist from improving its ties with the Taliban.

In the second episode of Season 2 of The Afghan Eye Podcast, Ahmed-Waleed Kakar dissects Pforzheimer's article, the references it sources, and the arguments presented within it.

Are improved American-Afghan relations really on the horizon?  What does this mean for Afghanistan?

(Thumbnail photo of Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani by AHMAD SAHEL ARMAN/AFP via Getty Images. Instagram @a.sahel_arman)

Articles referenced:

The article:
 https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-afghanistan-taliban/

Annie Pforzheimer's biography:
 https://www.csis.org/people/annie-pforzheimer

CSIS’ funding and donors:
 https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information

The UN's 2023 report: https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/125/36/PDF/N2312536.pdf?OpenElement

The UN's 2022 report: 
 https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N22/333/77/PDF/N2233377.pdf?OpenElement

The Doha Agreement:
 https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Afghan Ministerial Visit to Islamabad:
 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/14/taliban-minister-raised-refugee-assets-issue-during-pakistan-visit-embassy

Afghan goods held in Karachi:
 https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2387031/pakistan

Peace in Afghanistan a 'nightmare':
 https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-185983

Regional recognition of Taliban to be 'simultaneous':
 https://www.voanews.com/a/regional-countries-mulling-simultaneous-taliban-recognition-pakistani-envoy-says/7357983.html

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On 2nd October 2023, Pakistan's Interior Minister Sarfaraz Bugti announced that illegal immigrants residing in the country would be given  one month to return to their home countries.  Whilst not explicitly aimed at Afghans, the majority of projected deportees, roughly numbering 1.73 million, would be Afghans. Since 1st November, with the passage of a month's deadline, deportations have been carried out in earnest. Disturbing reports have surfaced; Afghans have been subject to physical abuse in addition to having their wealth seized by Pakistani police at border crossings. Afghans legally registered and residing in Pakistan have also reported harassment from the country's notorious security apparatus.

Pakistani Caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar on 8th November stated that the deportations were down to Kabul's refusal to cooperate with Islamabad on curtailing the increased activity of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), widely considered to be under Kabul's influence. Afghan refugees, Kakar also claimed, were largely responsible for Pakistan's perilous security situation.

Ahmed-Waleed Kakar analyses the motivations behind the drastic decision by Islamabad, explaining the larger context of Afghan-Pakistani relations since 2021 and what effects could be expected going forth.

Articles referenced:

Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-pm-says-expulsion-afghans-response-taliban-non-cooperation-2023-11-08/

Al Jazeera English: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/3/pakistan-wants-undocumented-migrants-to-leave-by-november-1-or-get-deported

Al Jazeera English: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/2/7/afghan-refugees-status-extended-until-end-of-year

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In the beginning of April 2023, the Taliban notified the United Nation mission in Afghanistan that Afghan women are no longer permitted to work for the U.N. There are approximately 400 Afghan women who work for the U.N mission in Afghanistan. This decision was condemned by the international community and the U.N. is currently assessing whether to continue or halt all aid activities in Afghanistan.

In this episode, Sangar is joined by seasoned conultant and academic Sepi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam. She was one of the foreign aidworkers in Kabul when the Taliban took over the country in the 1990's. Sepi has in total, more 29 years of experience in conflict and post-conflict countries, especially in Afghanistan. 

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A flurry of diplomatic activity over the past months has seen Afghan embassies and consulates in Iran and the UAE handed over to the new Afghan Taliban government. 

As this diplomatic momentum increases, reports circulate that Tajikistan, initially hostile to the Taliban government, is poised to follow suit and submit control of Afghan consular premises to the Taliban.

What does this mean for the new Afghan government and its lack of recognition so far? What does it mean for Afghanistan? What opportunities do a greater diplomatic presence overseas present for Kabul?

In this episode of The Afghan Eye podcast, Sangar Paykhar hosts Afghan political analyst and scholar in international relations, Abdul Hai Qanit, to dissect these questions further. 

Abdul Hai Qanit on Twitter: @AQanit

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In this episode of The Afghan Eye podcast, Sangar hosts Jeff Rigsby. Jeff Rigsby was a US military contractor and aid worker during the occupation who is currently living in Afghanistan. Jeff sheds light in the lack of transparency in the Western NGO industry and details his experiences as an American living in the new, post-occupation, and Taliban-governed Afghanistan. 

Jeff Rigsby on Twitter: @JeffRigsby2

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What is liberalism? What makes liberalism an aggressive ideology that motivates the militarism of Western states? How can dissecting liberalism help us understand the American occupation of Afghanistan?

To answer these questions further, Ahmed-Waleed and Sangar dive into The Great Delusion by the renowned political scientist Dr. John J. Mearsheimer.

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The Afghan Eye is back!

In 2023's first episode, Sangar interviews Ahmed-Waleed on his recent article on the history and legacy of politicised education in Afghanistan. Amidst increasing Taliban restrictions on Afghan women's right to work and a ban on female secondary and university education, the duo discuss predictions for the directions that could be taken by Afghanistan under the Taliban's government.

The article: https://afghaneye.org/2022/12/21/afghanistan-girls-education/

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This episode of The Afghan Brief focuses on the three day long 'Scholar's Conference' gathered by the Taliban in Kabul and its 11-point Declaration. Ahmed-Waleed and Sangar discuss the assembly's Declaration, its lack of political inclusivity and the Declaration's reference to women's rights and modern education. and analyse why it wasn't labelled, as per national custom, a 'jirga'.

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