On 24th November 2023, a conference was convened in the Russian capital of Moscow. Attendees included Russian politicians and an Iranian government representative. The conference was also attended by a number of exiled Afghan politicians: Shukria Barakzai, Fawzia Koofi, Muhammad Muhaqqiq, Ahmad Wali Massoud, and Ahmad Massoud.

The event follows months of conflicting statements made by Russian officials about Afghanistan. In particular, Russian Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov has repeatedly reprimanded the Afghan government and highlighted its lack of ethnopolitical inclusivity. At the same time, Kabulov has stressed the need for engagement with Kabul and praised its counter-narcotics efforts as well as its ongoing campaign against Daesh (ISKP).

What is driving Russia's seemingly mixed signals to Kabul? Ahmed-Waleed Kakar examines the conferences, and assesses what it reveals and signifies about Russo-Afghan relations.

Links/references:

Massoud’s speech at the Moscow Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsUL230Px3c&t=4s

Kabulov: The Afghan government is currently not inclusive. Link: https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-183805

Kabulov: The Taliban must ensure ethnopolitical inclusivity for recognition. https://tass.com/politics/1681639?

Kazan Declaration: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1906997/

Kabulov: Ethnic minorities are over half of the Afghan population.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/ties-with-afghanistan-should-not-be-hostage-to-taliban-recognition-russian-president-s-envoy/3017031#

Russian Ambassador meets Afghan Foreign Minister. https://twitter.com/HafizZiaAhmad/status/1728399725706281378

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