Recording date: 24th February 2026

The nickel market is experiencing a structural shift as Indonesia and the Philippines move toward coordinated supply management, driving prices above $18,000 per ton in late February 2026. This represents a nearly 5% single-day gain and marks a significant departure from the price pressure that has characterized the market over the previous three years.

The most dramatic development involves Indonesia's aggressive quota reduction for Eramet, one of the world's largest nickel producers. The Indonesian government slashed Eramet's ore quota from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, effectively removing approximately 300,000 tons of nickel from the market—roughly 10% of global supply. This action demonstrates Indonesia's commitment to supply discipline and may signal a pattern of targeting publicly reporting Western companies that must disclose such cuts, while reductions affecting private Indonesian operators remain invisible to markets.

Indonesia and the Philippines have formalized their cooperation through the Indo Nickel Corridor, a working group established between the mining associations of both countries. While not officially a cartel, this coordination between the world's two largest nickel ore suppliers represents a fundamental shift in market dynamics. The Philippines supplies over 300,000 tons annually, and joint coordination aims to ensure producers can achieve profitable returns rather than oversupplying a limited resource.

Physical market indicators are confirming the price rally's sustainability. Philippine ore prices to Indonesia have increased notably, and the Philippine rainy season running through March typically constrains ore availability, supporting expectations for prices in the $18,500 to $20,000 range through the first quarter.

Additional supply disruptions, including Sherritt International's operational curtailments in Cuba due to fuel shortages, are adding marginal tightness. Meanwhile, improved investor sentiment is evident in successful capital raises by junior nickel companies and Vale's sale of its Thompson asset to Exiro Minerals, which has committed several hundred million dollars to revive production at the long-declining operation.

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Recording date: 5th February 2026

The nickel market is establishing a more constructive outlook in early 2026, supported by Indonesian supply discipline and robust demand fundamentals. In a recent market discussion, Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby outlined the key factors driving nickel prices and provided updates on the company's flagship Crawford project.

Nickel prices have settled into a $16,500-$18,500 per ton trading range after briefly exceeding $19,000 in early January. The strength is underpinned by Indonesia's commitment to flat-to-down ore production targets of 250-260 million tons for 2026. This supply discipline, combined with prices for nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel all reaching three-year highs, indicates genuine market tightening rather than speculative positioning.

Selby expects nickel to move toward $20,000 per ton within the coming month as production data confirms Indonesian adherence to its targets. The country's strategy balances maximizing royalty revenues and improving trade balances while preventing prices from rising high enough to incentivize significant new global production. Indonesia has latitude to manage supply up to the $22,000 per ton range before triggering meaningful supply responses.

Electric vehicle demand continues driving market growth, with underlying expansion of approximately 20% annually. Europe posted 30% growth, China 17%, and the rest of world 48%, as the lithium supply chain completes its destocking phase. Combined with stainless steel demand, the nickel market requires approximately 200,000 tons of new annual supply—equivalent to seven Crawford phase-one projects—just to meet 6-7% demand growth.

Canada Nickel announced two significant milestones: appointing Ausenco as lead engineer for the Crawford project's process plant and infrastructure, and securing expanded bridge financing from Auramet. These developments position the company to target construction commencement by year-end 2026, subject to finalizing government partnerships. The limited pipeline of new nickel districts globally makes projects like Crawford increasingly valuable as Indonesian grade constraints emerge toward decade-end.

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Recording date: 14th January 2026

The nickel market experienced significant volatility in early 2026, with prices climbing $2,200 per ton to reach $18,650 following Vale's announcement of mining permit delays at its Indonesian operation. This development provided concrete evidence that Indonesian export restrictions represent material operational impacts rather than regulatory posturing. The publicly traded company's disclosure requirements made it an effective vehicle for authorities to demonstrate commitment to supply constraints.

The price movement's legitimacy was confirmed through corresponding increases across the entire supply chain. Nickel pig iron prices rose 8-9% over two weeks, while stainless steel increased 6%. Most notably, mixed hydroxide precipitate payable levels remained at 88.5% despite volatility, indicating processors remain confident in demand fundamentals. These coordinated movements suggest genuine supply-demand dynamics with consumers actively restocking inventories after a period of restraint.

The timing of Indonesian restrictions coincides with seasonal weakness in alternative supply sources. The Philippines, which produces half its annual nickel ore output in Q3, generates only one-quarter of that volume during Q1. This eliminates the most obvious alternative precisely when Indonesian restrictions take effect. Market observers anticipate prices could reach $20,000 per ton during the January-March quarter as Chinese processors face mounting pressure to secure material amid declining ore inventories.

Against this backdrop of supply concentration risk, Ontario moved decisively to support domestic production. Canada Nickel's Crawford project received "One Project, One Process" designation, making it the only Canadian project with both federal Major Projects Office endorsement and provincial accelerated permitting. Ministers Stephen Lecce and George Pirie emphasized moving at "lightning speed" and "full-tilt" to develop what they called critical infrastructure for ending China's critical mineral dominance.

The political support extends beyond rhetoric to practical financing assistance, with officials acknowledging these projects require public capital to reach construction. The government's commitment includes developing not just a mine but an entire domestic supply chain encompassing processing and downstream alloy production.

Canada Nickel reported a 46% increase in contained nickel at its Reid deposit, bringing the total resource to 5 million tonnes. Reid demonstrates superior economics compared to Crawford, featuring nearly half the strip ratio, one-third less overburden, and 15% higher chromium grades. The deposit remains open in multiple directions with over 40% of geophysical targets still unexplored, representing one of nine resources identified in the Timmins Nickel District.

This district-scale opportunity positions the region as a long-term production center. While Crawford will serve as the initial project advancing toward year-end construction, the company believes several other deposits, including Reid, may prove even more valuable.

Corporate activity has accelerated alongside strengthening prices. Nickel 28 announced an 8% share buyback, while South Korea's Sphere Corp acquired 10% of Indonesia's Excelsior Nickel Cobalt project at a $2.4 billion valuation. However, internal analysis reveals 99% of public mining equity raised over the past two years concentrated in gold, silver, and copper, leaving just 1% for other minerals. This capital constraint underscores the importance of government participation in financing critical minerals development as governments increasingly view these projects through a national security lens rather than purely economic terms.

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Recording date: 4th December 2025

The global copper market is approaching a critical supply crunch as electrification and decarbonization drive unprecedented demand growth while new mine development stalls, according to analysis by Merlin M Johnson, CEO of Fitzroy Minerals. Despite nominal copper prices appearing strong above $5 per pound, real prices measured in gold have declined 80% from historical peaks, reflecting nearly two decades of subdued demand and robust mine supply following the 2008 financial crisis.

The outlook has transformed dramatically as electrification accelerates. Global electricity demand grew 4.3% in 2024, substantially exceeding overall energy demand growth of 2.2% and GDP expansion of 3.2%. Electrification and decarbonization now represent approximately 30% of total copper demand, with electric vehicles requiring two to three times more copper than conventional vehicles. The International Energy Agency projects copper demand growth at 2.6% annually through 2035, requiring 600,000-700,000 tons of new supply each year.

However, new project approvals have fallen dramatically short, averaging under 300,000 tons annually for three consecutive years - roughly half of requirements. The industry lost 500,000-800,000 tons of capacity in 2024 through various disruptions, while social license issues, indigenous rights concerns, and permitting challenges constrain development across multiple jurisdictions.

Chile, producing 5.4 million tons representing 24% of global output, exemplifies the industry's mature economics. Despite $83 billion in planned investment through 2034, Chilean production is projected to increase by only 100,000 tons. BHP's Escondida mine will see production decline 20% from 1.2 million to 1.0 million tons despite $5-6 billion in spending.

These dynamics point toward sustained deficit conditions beginning in 2026, with prices projected to reach $20,000-30,000 per ton (above $9 per pound) from current levels around $11,000-12,000 per ton to incentivize necessary supply additions and offset extreme capital intensity in modern copper mining.

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Recording date: 30th December 2025

The nickel market is experiencing a fundamental transformation as Indonesia's coordinated supply management strategy drives prices from $14,200 to $16,500 per ton since mid-December 2025, with further advances toward $18,500-$20,000 expected . Indonesia, which controls approximately two-thirds of global nickel supply, has implemented multiple policy measures including reducing mining licenses from three-year to one-year terms, closing mines for forestry violations, and banning new HPAL and NPI processing plants . These measures respond to declining saprolite ore grades that have dropped by double-digit percentages year-over-year, representing a calculated effort to maximize value from finite resources .

Global electric vehicle sales reached 18.5 million units through November 2025, up 21% year-over-year, with Europe growing 33%, China 19%, and rest-of-world surging 48% . North America's 1% decline reflects policy reversals under the Trump administration, though strengthened Chinese content restrictions benefit North American and European nickel suppliers . The underlying EV growth rate of 20-25% supports long-term nickel demand, particularly for premium and long-range vehicles requiring nickel-intensive battery chemistries .

Prime Minister Mark Carney designated Canada Nickel's Crawford project as a National-Building Project in December 2025, targeting year-end 2026 construction start with dedicated federal financing and accelerated permitting support . The company has expanded to eight resources in the Timmins Nickel District containing over 20 million tonnes of nickel, creating district consolidation potential as Crawford alone is valued at several billion dollars against the company's C$300 million market capitalisation .

The International Nickel Study Group forecasts a 300,000-ton surplus for 2025, yet exchange inventories increased only 100,000 tons during the year and just 10,000 tons in November-December despite reported monthly surpluses of 60,000 tons . This persistent disconnect suggests official forecasts substantially overstate surplus conditions as Indonesian ore grades decline faster than models capture . The combination of Indonesian pricing discipline, underappreciated demand fundamentals, and advancing North American projects signals materially different market conditions for 2026 compared to the Chinese-controlled price suppression that characterised 2024-2025 .

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Recording date: 29th October 2025

Nickel prices have stayed steady within a narrow range of $15,000 to $15,500 per ton but are poised for upward movement as ore supply from the Philippines tightens through the rainy season in late 2025 and early 2026. At the same time, electric vehicle (EV) demand is robust, with global sales up 24% over the first nine months of 2025. This growth is especially pronounced in China, which led with 32%, while Europe and North America posted 24% and 11% increases, respectively. High-nickel battery chemistries are seeing increased use, fueling further nickel demand and pushing North American requirements alone higher by 300,000 to 400,000 tons.

In response to strategic resource needs, G7 nations are launching a Critical Minerals Initiative to collectively finance and accelerate critical mineral projects, particularly in resource-rich countries like Canada and Australia. In Canada, the Crawford project by Canada Nickel stands out as a major economic force, expected to contribute $70 billion to GDP and $15 billion in taxes over 40 years. The project is also notable for carbon sequestration technology capable of storing up to 15 million tons of CO2 annually. This opens the potential to create zero-carbon industrial hubs, producing hydrogen, fertilizers, and other products that are vital for the transition to a low-carbon economy.

The national focus on critical minerals is crystallizing through Canada’s forthcoming National Priority Projects list, with selection based on economic scale, Indigenous participation, near-term timelines, and decarbonization impact. Canada Nickel’s Crawford is well positioned, while new government-backed initiatives and industry partnerships hint at significant support for similar ventures. Meanwhile, investors are rotating capital from precious metals into battery metals, seeking exposure to growth driven by the EV sector and critical minerals demand. This backdrop underscores the strategic importance of projects like Crawford to economic growth, clean industry, and advancing a secure, decarbonized supply chain for the future.

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Recording date: 16th October 2025

The global copper market faces an unprecedented supply crisis that savvy investors cannot afford to ignore. With prices already pushing $5 per pound and heading toward $12,000 per tonne by end-2025, the red metal has become the most critical commodity play of this decade. Recent catastrophic failures at major mines have removed over 500,000 tonnes from near-term production—equivalent to an entire year's demand growth—while recovery timelines stretch into 2027. The Grasberg mud rush in Indonesia and El Teniente seismic events in Chile aren't just temporary setbacks; they represent the increasing fragility of global copper supply as miners push deeper underground into more complex geology.

Meanwhile, demand acceleration shows no signs of slowing. Artificial intelligence data centers, electric vehicle adoption, and renewable energy infrastructure are creating copper consumption patterns that dwarf traditional industrial use. Each hyperscale AI facility requires as much copper as a small town's electrical grid, while EVs need four times the copper of conventional vehicles. The math is unforgiving: the world needs the equivalent of a new major copper mine every year just to maintain 2% demand growth, yet the industry hasn't discovered a tier-one deposit in over a decade.

Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, exemplifies the industry's struggles. Starved of capital by government raids on its balance sheet, the company has shifted from growth to mere "optimization"—a euphemism for stagnation. With development timelines now stretching beyond 16 years and capital costs exceeding $35,000 per tonne of installed capacity, new supply cannot materialize quickly enough to prevent a structural deficit. For investors, this creates a generational opportunity. Whether through major miners, junior explorers, or physical copper exposure, the supply-demand fundamentals point to sustained price appreciation that could define the next decade of commodity investing.

00:00 - Introduction to Copper Market Trends
02:48 - Copper Price Dynamics and Forecasts
05:43 - Supply Disruptions and Their Impact
08:35 - Copper Demand Growth and Future Needs
11:24 - Challenges in Chile's Copper Production
14:44 - Block Caving Techniques and Challenges
17:23 - Future Production Plans and Market Outlook
20:21 - Investment Opportunities in Copper Projects
23:20 - Exploration Updates and Company Highlights
29:05 - Conclusion and Future Prospects

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Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/copper

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Recording date: 7th October 2025

The critical minerals sector is experiencing a fundamental transformation as direct government equity participation drives substantial stock revaluations while nickel prices test multi-month trading range resistance. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, recently outlined how these converging factors represent a potential inflection point for the industry.

Nickel prices have been range-bound between $15,000 and $15,500 per tonne for three to four months but are now pushing against resistance levels, with brief breakouts to $15,600. Ore prices increased $0.50 to $1.00 per tonne during China's recent October holiday, providing price support as markets return to full operation. Selby stated that "this fall is when we're going to see the first move," suggesting the breakout may be imminent.

Indonesian supply management is emerging as a critical factor for market balance. Government representatives at recent International Nickel Study Group meetings outlined plans for more aggressive supply discipline through year-end and into 2026. Key policy changes include reducing mining licences from three-year to one-year terms and implementing forestry crackdowns, with officials pointing to tightness expected in the first quarter of 2026. Indonesia now controls two-thirds of global nickel supply, making these policy shifts materially significant.

Government funding is creating dramatic stock revaluations. The US government has taken equity stakes in Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals, with companies receiving support experiencing 2-10x stock appreciation. Lithium Americas has doubled in a month, MP Materials has tripled in three months, and The Metals Company is up tenfold since December. Canada is developing similar programmes, with priority project lists identifying large-scale, advanced-stage projects for direct government support.

Capital rotation from precious metals into critical minerals is accelerating as gold approaches $4,000 per ounce. Investors are positioning ahead of government funding announcements rather than chasing already-revalued stocks, creating opportunities in underappreciated projects meeting strategic criteria for government support.

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Recording date: 24th September 2025

The global nickel market is experiencing a critical inflection point as multiple supply and demand dynamics converge to potentially end the prolonged period of range-bound pricing between $15,000-$15,800 per ton that has persisted since April 2025.

Indonesia's strategic shift represents the most significant development in nickel markets. After a decade of flooding global markets with supply, the country now controls more nickel market share than OPEC commands in oil markets. This dominant position creates powerful economic incentives for price support rather than suppression. With nickel prices returning to $18,000-$20,000 per ton levels, Indonesia could generate an additional $4,000 per ton revenue that would completely eliminate the country's current account deficit.

Seasonal production patterns are amplifying supply pressures. Philippine nickel output, which produces nearly half its annual volume during the third quarter, will drop by 50% entering Q4. Simultaneously, Indonesia's regulatory crackdowns have removed 190 companies from operations, including 36 nickel producers, while transitioning mining licenses from three-year to one-year terms.

Robust electric vehicle adoption continues supporting fundamental demand. Global EV sales increased 15% year-over-year in August 2025, with Europe demonstrating particularly strong 30% growth despite previous pessimistic forecasts. The shift toward hybrid vehicles, now targeting 50% of manufacturer production versus 20% previously, maintains nickel consumption through 60% nickel battery chemistry requirements.

Nickel deployment in batteries has grown 13% annually, with monthly tracking indicating consistent demand increases across both full electric and hybrid vehicle applications. This growth trajectory supports long-term demand fundamentals even as lithium iron phosphate batteries gain market share in certain applications.

Canadian government policy has evolved dramatically in response to US trade tensions, creating unprecedented federal-provincial cooperation for critical mineral development. National priority project designation provides fast-track approval processes and enhanced funding access, with experienced financial executives appointed to key implementation roles. This framework specifically targets projects with scale, feasible development timelines, and Indigenous community support.

The convergence of supply discipline, sustained demand growth, and supportive government policies suggests the nickel sector may be emerging from years of investor skepticism toward a more balanced market environment capable of supporting sustainable higher pricing levels.

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Recording date: 12 May 2025

The global nickel market is experiencing a fundamental shift that presents compelling investment opportunities as supply constraints tighten and governments recognize the metal's strategic importance beyond electric vehicle applications. Current market dynamics suggest investors should consider exposure to this critical commodity as geopolitical factors and Indonesian market control reshape the industry landscape.

Indonesia has emerged as the dominant force in global nickel supply, with the metal now representing the country's largest export sector. The government has demonstrated both capability and willingness to influence prices through sophisticated mechanisms, including environmental enforcement and RKAB licensing quotas. Recent actions illustrate this control, with Indonesia halting production at four projects in Raja Ampat affecting 1-2% of global supply. Despite nickel prices remaining in the $15,000-$15,800 range, ore prices have reached two-year highs, creating margin pressure that forced even industry leader Tsingshan to announce production cuts.

Supply chain vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly apparent across the value chain. Ore imports from the Philippines are running significantly ahead of last year's levels, preventing typical inventory buildup before the rainy season. Grade deterioration in medium and high-grade deposits affects nickel pig iron production efficiency, while weather disruptions in key Indonesian regions create additional pressure points. Industry experts predict prices reaching $16,500 by late summer, with potential for $18,000-$20,000 per tonne by year-end.

The strategic importance of nickel has escalated beyond electric vehicles to national security priorities. Recent US negotiations with China over rare earth access highlight Western dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains, reinforcing government support for domestic alternatives. Canada has placed nickel projects on its Priority Projects list, backed by $500 million in critical mineral processing funds.

Exploration successes demonstrate significant value creation potential. Talon Metals delivered exceptional drill results with 34.9 meters grading 14.86% nickel and 15.37% copper, while Canada Nickel defined over one billion tonnes containing 2+ million tonnes of nickel at Mann West. These discoveries represent rare new sources outside Indonesia, highlighting supply scarcity.

The convergence of Indonesian supply control, geopolitical priorities, and structural constraints creates an attractive investment environment for nickel exposure before supply limitations drive substantial price appreciation.

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