Recording date: 12 May 2025

The global nickel market is experiencing a fundamental shift that presents compelling investment opportunities as supply constraints tighten and governments recognize the metal's strategic importance beyond electric vehicle applications. Current market dynamics suggest investors should consider exposure to this critical commodity as geopolitical factors and Indonesian market control reshape the industry landscape.

Indonesia has emerged as the dominant force in global nickel supply, with the metal now representing the country's largest export sector. The government has demonstrated both capability and willingness to influence prices through sophisticated mechanisms, including environmental enforcement and RKAB licensing quotas. Recent actions illustrate this control, with Indonesia halting production at four projects in Raja Ampat affecting 1-2% of global supply. Despite nickel prices remaining in the $15,000-$15,800 range, ore prices have reached two-year highs, creating margin pressure that forced even industry leader Tsingshan to announce production cuts.

Supply chain vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly apparent across the value chain. Ore imports from the Philippines are running significantly ahead of last year's levels, preventing typical inventory buildup before the rainy season. Grade deterioration in medium and high-grade deposits affects nickel pig iron production efficiency, while weather disruptions in key Indonesian regions create additional pressure points. Industry experts predict prices reaching $16,500 by late summer, with potential for $18,000-$20,000 per tonne by year-end.

The strategic importance of nickel has escalated beyond electric vehicles to national security priorities. Recent US negotiations with China over rare earth access highlight Western dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains, reinforcing government support for domestic alternatives. Canada has placed nickel projects on its Priority Projects list, backed by $500 million in critical mineral processing funds.

Exploration successes demonstrate significant value creation potential. Talon Metals delivered exceptional drill results with 34.9 meters grading 14.86% nickel and 15.37% copper, while Canada Nickel defined over one billion tonnes containing 2+ million tonnes of nickel at Mann West. These discoveries represent rare new sources outside Indonesia, highlighting supply scarcity.

The convergence of Indonesian supply control, geopolitical priorities, and structural constraints creates an attractive investment environment for nickel exposure before supply limitations drive substantial price appreciation.

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Recording date: 5th August 2025

The global nickel market stands at a critical juncture as prices hover around $15,000 per tonne, positioned at the lower end of the established $15,000-$15,800 trading range. Despite recent inventory increases of 6,000 tonnes on the London Metal Exchange, underlying market fundamentals suggest potential upward momentum driven by strategic supply management and policy shifts across key producing regions.

Indonesia's dominance as the world's primary nickel supplier continues to shape global pricing dynamics, with the country effectively acting as "an OPEC of one country" for nickel markets. Indonesian producers have successfully pushed ore prices up approximately $3,000 per tonne, creating significant cost pressures throughout the supply chain. However, this aggressive pricing strategy, facilitated by Chinese company Tsingshan's high-output, low-price approach to squeeze competitors, appears to be reaching sustainability limits as market participants recognize the need for broader industry profitability.

China's implementation of "involution" policies - designed to reduce excess industrial capacity and improve profitability - represents a fundamental shift in industrial strategy with direct implications for nickel demand. These policies specifically target steel production, including stainless steel manufacturing, where overcapacity has created deflationary pressure. Early signs of this policy impact are already visible, with recent upticks in both nickel pig iron and Chinese stainless steel prices indicating genuine demand recovery rather than speculative positioning.

The next few weeks prove crucial for market direction, as all major mines operate at near-full capacity while Chinese efforts to pressure ore prices continue. The seasonal element becomes particularly significant with anticipated Philippine mine shutdowns during winter months, potentially creating substantial supply constraints during the fourth quarter.

Government support for critical mineral projects has accelerated dramatically, exemplified by MP Materials' Department of Defense contracts and Torngat Metals' $100+ million Canadian government financing. This shift addresses supply chain security concerns, particularly given Chinese control of approximately 80% of global nickel processing capacity.

The convergence of these factors - Indonesian supply management, Chinese capacity rationalization, seasonal constraints, and government intervention - creates conditions supporting price recovery toward the $18,000-$20,000 range by year-end.

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Recording date: 21 May 2025

The nickel market is presenting compelling investment opportunities as supply-side constraints converge with accelerating demand from both traditional and emerging applications. Recent market developments indicate a sector positioned for potential price appreciation driven by geopolitical supply concentration and robust consumption growth.

Nickel prices have stabilized in the $15,000-$15,800 per tonne range following recent volatility, with exchange inventories declining despite earlier surplus concerns. This inventory drawdown suggests underlying consumption is absorbing available supply more effectively than anticipated, indicating a market transitioning toward supply-demand balance.

Indonesia's dominance of approximately two-thirds of global nickel supply provides significant price leverage through regulatory control mechanisms. The country operates mining quotas through the RKAB licensing system and maintains discretionary enforcement of environmental regulations, creating multiple tools for supply management. Industry experts note that Indonesia has clear economic incentives to push prices higher, as the country generates more revenue at $18,000 per tonne than at $15,000.

Demand fundamentals are exceeding analyst expectations across key sectors. Chinese 300-series stainless steel production, representing up to half of global nickel consumption, has surged 12% year-over-year through early 2025. Electric vehicle battery applications are contributing additional growth of 10-15% annually, supporting increasing nickel intensity in the global economy.

Western governments are responding to supply chain security concerns with enhanced support for domestic nickel projects. The Trump administration has fast-tracked permitting for critical mineral projects, while Canadian funding programs are addressing traditional capital constraints. Automotive manufacturers specifically seek "clean green nickel" for EV production, creating premium opportunities for sustainably produced Western supply.

Recent exploration successes, including Talon Metals' exceptional drill results showing 12% nickel and 14% copper grades, demonstrate continued discovery potential in established mining districts. Combined with innovative financing structures involving government and strategic capital, these developments suggest Western nickel projects are approaching a development inflection point that could reduce global dependence on Indonesian supply while capturing premium pricing for sustainable production methods.

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Recording date: 22nd April 2025

Nickel prices have demonstrated remarkable recovery in recent months, rebounding from $14,000 to approximately $15,750 per ton following Trump's reversal of the Liberation Day tariffs. This represents a recovery of about two-thirds of the $2,800 per ton loss experienced when tariffs were initially announced.

The market's resilience is supported by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply front, Indonesian production slowed during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, while domestic smelters were already operating with low inventory levels. Although the Philippine rainy season is ending, the supply chain will take time to replenish, creating temporary constraints that support pricing. The benchmark 1.5% Philippine ore has reached its highest price level since October 2023.

Demand remains robust, particularly from China's stainless steel sector, which has grown at double-digit rates through the early part of the year—exceeding most analyst expectations. This strong performance, combined with anticipated growth in the electric vehicle sector, could potentially drive nickel prices toward $20,000 per ton by year-end, according to industry executive Mark Selby.

Nickel's critical mineral status positions it favorably in the current geopolitical environment. With countries seeking to secure essential material supply chains amid US-China tensions, nickel producers outside the Chinese-Indonesian supply network stand to benefit from increased government support and funding.

Recent industry developments further reinforce investment interest in the sector. The Metals Company has seen its stock price triple after announcing plans to apply for mining permits under existing US legislation. Turkish industrialist Robert Yildirim announced plans to invest approximately $2 billion in nickel, while companies like Ardea Resources, First Atlantic Nickel, and Talon Metals reported encouraging drilling results.

The convergence of different nickel product prices indicates a maturing market where products are increasingly valued based on their nickel content rather than product-specific factors, creating a more stable pricing environment for investors.

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Recording date: 8th April 2025

Recent trade tensions have sent ripples through the metals market, with nickel prices retreating to 2020 levels around $14,000 per ton. Despite this 15% decline from recent highs, nickel has demonstrated greater resilience than other base metals such as copper, which has experienced losses exceeding 20%. This relative outperformance hints at nickel's stronger fundamental position in today's complex commodity landscape.

The market is approaching what industry experts call the "grand convergence," where production costs across different technologies are aligning. This convergence is creating a more stable cost floor for nickel, limiting potential downside even amid trade uncertainties. Current prices have already fallen well into the cost curve, suggesting limited additional downward pressure as production economics begin to constrain supply growth.

Indonesia's dominance in global nickel production continues to shape market dynamics. Environmental concerns surrounding "blood nickel" and challenging production conditions create persistent supply constraints despite Indonesia's expansion plans. Seasonal factors in key production regions like the Philippines also contribute to cyclical supply tightness, with evidence suggesting that structural supply limitations may outweigh these seasonal patterns going forward.

Government support for critical minerals has accelerated dramatically, creating unprecedented funding opportunities for strategically positioned nickel projects. As one industry leader noted, tariff tensions have paradoxically reinforced commitments to domestic supply chain development, with funding "going to show up much more vigorously and much more quickly than it had before." This support extends across political lines, with projects receiving endorsements from both governing and opposition parties in various jurisdictions.

Companies with the flexibility to sell into multiple markets hold significant advantages in navigating current trade disruptions. Those positioned outside the U.S. market may actually benefit from redirected supply chains and heightened domestic support. As revealed in the transcript, for development-stage projects, this environment represents "some short-term pain, but perversely super helpful for any of us in the critical mineral space who can sell our stuff anywhere in the world outside the United States."

Recent project developments across the sector illustrate both progress and challenges in expanding supply. New discoveries like Molga Tank in Australia and advanced projects like Kabanga in Tanzania represent significant nickel resources, but complex development requirements create barriers to rapid production growth. Companies have increasingly recognized that simpler development plans focused on mining rather than complex processing facilities offer more practical paths forward.

For investors, the nickel market presents an opportunity to position for longer-term structural trends despite near-term volatility. The demonstrated challenges in developing cost-effective new supply, combined with accelerating demand from energy transition applications, create a compelling fundamental case. Companies with advanced projects receiving strategic government support offer particularly interesting exposure to this critical mineral. While current market turbulence requires patience, the strategic importance of nickel continues to grow as global supply chains adapt to new trade realities.

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Recording date: 28th March 2025

Nickel prices have rebounded to $16,500 per tonne ($7.50/lb), marking a 10% gain since the start of 2025. This recovery is primarily driven by significant price increases in Indonesian and Philippine ore, with Indonesian ore prices rising by $1.50-$2 per tonne (3-6%) in the latest week.

Industry experts consider the Indonesian ore price the key indicator for nickel's market direction this year. The price increases are cascading through the entire supply chain, affecting ore, nickel pig iron (NPI), and stainless steel prices, with several price points reaching levels only briefly seen in late 2024.

On the corporate front, Canada Nickel Company has established a RoyaltyCo holding a 1% royalty on most of its land package, enabling it to raise $8 million while maintaining 62% ownership. The company expects to publish six additional resource estimates by mid-year, potentially creating a resource endowment comparable to the Sudbury basin.

Other significant developments include Centaurus receiving a construction permit for its Brazilian nickel project, positioning it among the few projects that could begin production before 2030. EV Nickel reported promising drilling results from its Gemini North target, with one hole showing 280 meters of mineralization at 0.32% nickel. First Atlantic Nickel announced results from its Newfoundland project and a partnership with the Colorado School of Mines to investigate natural hydrogen potential.

Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange was recently fined £9.2 million ($11.9 million) for its handling of the 2022 nickel trading crisis, which resulted in $12 billion in canceled trades when prices spiked to nearly $100,000 per tonne.

Government policies are increasingly supporting critical minerals projects, particularly in Canada where the Ontario government announced a $500 million fund for critical minerals processing. This shifting landscape, coupled with tariff implementations and growing emphasis on secure supply chains, is creating potentially favorable conditions for nickel investments, especially for projects in stable jurisdictions with lower carbon footprints.

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Recording date: 14th March 2025

Elbows Up, Canada & The Nickel Market

What a difference 2 weeks makes – up $2,200 a tonne since we last spoke breaking out of range $15,000-$15,800 range that we’ve been in the last 3 months.  

Multiple reports of ore availability being tighter than expected this week – but first week since Chinese New Year didn’t see an increase in Indonesia ore price – but Indonesia talking about increasing royalty rates from 10% to 14-18% which will flow through to costs.  Though, Philippine ore prices were up $1/t and we continue to see NPI prices/stainless prices tick up each week in China which is supportive to nickel prices. This royalty rate change should underscore point I’ve been making that Indonesia wants to ensure it captures additional value from its finite ore resources. 

LME nickel inventories continue to move higher as refining capacity additions in Indonesia and China are allowing any surplus to be converted into LME deliverable units – this will ensure that final stage of “Great Compression” is completed.

While have seen significant increases in LME stocks – need to remember still low on weeks of inventory basis and still a fraction of reported surpluses over last 3 years  

In sharp contrast to year ago, EV sales looking robust – YTD February up 30% globally – China up 35%, Europe up 20% (with BEV up 29% and hybrid up 2%).  Is crazy how much negative hype last year when was just impact of Germany cancelling incentives which saw big surge in sales in advance in late 2023.  These numbers are now getting the benefit of low base in Europe – underlying numbers still growing at 20-25% ! 

Some interesting company news 

Talon Metals announced earn in by Lundin minerals to its Michigan properties where they’ve seen some excellent results.  Land package they picked up about 2 years ago.  Great move by both sides – keeps Talon from having to dilute its main property to explore and Lundin is running out of ore at its Eagle mill which is short distance away from this land package.   

Canada Nickel released more exploration results from the “Three Giants” – Mann West, Reid, and Midlothian – each have bigger geophysical footprint than Crawford.  Highest grades to date at Mann West, continued solid results at Reid, and good longer higher-grade intervals at Midlothian.

Chalice Resources had big news for PDAC – announced updated flowsheet – got rid of hydromet and making concentrates.  Nickel concentrate hydromet particularly for complex concentrates hard. Concentrates great – but will run into the “oligopoly’ if producing a Ni-Cu-PGM concentrate that has to go to one of the smelters. Doesn’t produce much nickel is really a PGM with Ni, Cu byproducts at this point. 

First Atlantic Nickel – awaruite property in Newfoundland – finally released some DTR results which were long overdue. Second hole yielded similar DTR grades to FPX – leading awaruite deposit. Explanation for long delay also in this press release as DTR results from first hole they drilled had much lower grades than FPX.  Ultramafic deposits typically have variability in mineralization and most importantly for these awaruite deposits need to look at grain size as FPX work showed change in recoverability based on grain size.  So interesting result, but a lot more drilling and mineralogy work to go.

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Recording date: 18th February 2025

The copper market has seen moderate price strengthening in early 2025, with prices reaching $4.20-$4.30/lb despite LME inventory increases in late 2024. Major producers including BHP, Rio Tinto, Freeport, and Capstone are taking a conservative approach, focusing on brownfield expansions rather than new greenfield developments due to capital intensity concerns.

The sector is witnessing a clear dichotomy in the exploration space. Companies with large-scale potential, strong news flow, and reliable access to capital are gaining market favor, while junior explorers with limited resources or challenging deposits struggle to maintain momentum. Notable performers include ATEX Resources, which has grown to a $600M market cap with five active drill rigs, and NGEx Minerals, reaching a $2.5B valuation with a 75% share price increase over the past year.

Mid-tier producer Capstone Copper exemplifies the sector's growth potential, projecting an increase from 184kt Cu in 2024 to 220-255kt in 2025. The company aims to reach 400ktpa longer-term through its Santo Domingo project, though financing remains challenging due to capital expenditure concerns.

Several emerging players are making significant strides. Element 29 reported impressive results in Peru with a kilometer-long intersection of 0.39% copper. Power Nickel has seen its share price increase sixfold, while Marimaca Copper plans to expand production from 50ktpa to 75ktpa, supported by strategic investors including Assore Holdings and Mitsubishi.

The supply landscape faces significant challenges, including major miners' reluctance to invest in large-scale greenfield projects. This hesitancy is evident in developments like Rio Tinto's Winu project, which targets modest production of 33ktpa copper and 80koz gold from a 600Mt resource.

Key investment themes emerging in the sector include oxide copper developments, which offer lower capital intensity alternatives to traditional projects, and increased interest in stable jurisdictions amid growing geopolitical concerns in traditional copper-producing regions. Companies with strong ESG practices and those exploring copper-gold deposits are attracting premium valuations.

For investors, opportunities exist across the risk spectrum, from established producers to exploration companies. Success factors include management expertise, asset quality, and jurisdiction risk management. The market particularly favors companies that can demonstrate scale potential while maintaining strong balance sheets and consistent news flow.

The sector's outlook remains positive, driven by anticipated demand growth from the clean energy transition, though careful selection of investment opportunities is crucial given the varying performance across the sector.

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Recording date: 13th February 2025

The nickel market has maintained remarkable stability, trading between $15,000-15,800 since December 2024, with London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories showing only modest increases of 4,000 tons despite analyst predictions of significant surpluses. This stability through the Chinese New Year period suggests underlying market strength.

Indonesia's strategic decision to maintain ore supply at 200-220 million tons indicates a measured approach to market management. This comes as the Philippines introduces legislation for a five-year ore export ban, though industry experts suggest limited impact due to decades of high-grade ore depletion. According to Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, the Philippines' move comes too late: "They should have probably done this 20 years ago, when they still had some higher grade material left."

The global nickel landscape is significantly influenced by China's approximate 70% beneficial ownership of Indonesian nickel projects, creating supply chain concerns for Western manufacturers. This concentration has prompted Western nations, particularly the US, to seek alternative supplies for their aerospace, defense, and automotive industries. Selby emphasizes that "China is still Enemy Number One," noting that Western car manufacturers are actively avoiding dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains.

In response to potential tariff scenarios, companies are diversifying their market exposure. European markets, especially those prioritizing low-carbon materials, present viable alternatives to US markets. Middle Eastern interest in nickel projects has also increased, broadening market opportunities.
The sector has attracted significant investment, with notable transactions including Power Nickel's $40 million raise, Magna Metals' $25 million financing, and several smaller deals. Canada Nickel secured $3 million in government funding for IP carbonation work, highlighting growing public sector support for strategic nickel projects.

The investment thesis for nickel remains strong, driven by several factors: secure supply concerns as China dominates Indonesian production, Western manufacturers seeking non-Chinese supply sources, anticipated supply pressure from the Philippines' export ban, and growing demand from EV, aerospace, and defense sectors. Premium pricing for low-carbon nickel production and alternative markets in Europe and the Middle East provide additional upside potential.

As the nickel market undergoes this transformation, investors are advised to focus on companies with assets in stable jurisdictions, proven management teams, and clear paths to production, while maintaining awareness of the broader geopolitical context affecting the sector.

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Recording date: 29th January 2025

Kung Hei Fat Choi – Happy New Year

Over the past 2 weeks, nickel made a strong break of over 16,000 per tonne off the $15,000 low set earlier in the month but couldn’t escape the Trump turbulence, which dragged metals prices back down, although nickel has dropped less than some other metals like zinc.  Over the last 2 weeks, we have seen NPI prices and stainless prices edge higher in China, suggesting the production chain is tightening up despite Trump turbulence – today is the Chinese New Year – so we will get a better view over the next 2 weeks.  Chinese are trying to talk down the market while supply is tightening. Remember, Tsinghsan got it wrong 3 years ago, and prices moved higher quickly last year in the first quarter. I still think we will see a higher squeeze.

The latest INSG data supports the market that Indonesia took the foot off the brake, showing mine production back up about 15% in October/November – government talked about a 200 Mt quota for 2025, so we will see in January/February what happens – have a case about why Indonesia should want to see prices higher back towards $20,000 earlier.
INSG data also showed global demand for the year now at 4.9%, with China up 3.8% - like last year, expect both numbers to be upgraded as Chinese 300 series stainless steel production was reported to be up 9.5% in 2024 – this is the largest single use of nickel globally – SMM (china agency) reporting global demand growth up 6.3%

Company News

Good news from Centaurus Metals – significant increase in nickel concentrate grade to 34% nickel from 12% nickel – a huge shift in downstream costs, particularly as the amount of nickel relative to zinc and fluorine content (which smelters don’t like) has increased significantly. 

Canada Nickel – more news on the regional program – best overall regional drill hole at Midlothian – highest grade drill results – 0.29% over the entire core length and multiple holes with grades at the upper end of 0.2-0.3% range.  Announced results from 3 other targets as well and added an additional resource to be published this year – eight regional resources and nine total, including Crawford.

Crawford permitting is progressing well – public consultation phase for this part of the process – the first meeting only had ten people attend and three questions // tribute to our team who have actively consulted communities from very early on in the project. A report in Timmins Today on one group talking about the impact on North Driftwood River – we welcome comments during this period – is the purpose of this phase.  This is an issue we studied extensively – a cheaper and easier option for us would be to discharge in the much larger Mattagami River, but as they said, North Driftwood is “small stream”, and we are impacting a higher proportion of flow in this watercourse so we are taking the steps to be able to discharge in this stream.

Aston Minerals announced merging to create a gold-focused company – two companies with gold assets in Australia and Canada merging – nickel asset seen as the future option value. 

Vale announced the sale process for Thompson assets – these assets used to produce 40ktpa of nickel and are now producing 10ktpa nickel.  These are assets our team knows well, and our knowledge of ultramafic nickel deposits and processing can add significant value.

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