Recording date: 7th November 2024

The often overlooked tin market is poised for a potential supply crunch in the coming years as strong demand from the electronics and electric vehicle sectors collides with increasing disruption risks from dominant producers Myanmar and Indonesia.

Over half of global tin consumption goes into soldering for circuit boards and semiconductors, making it a direct play on the rapid growth of 5G smartphones, IoT devices, data centers, renewable energy and electric vehicles. The ongoing boom in these technologies is set to underpin healthy tin demand through the late 2020s. As Andy Home, Senior Metals Columnist at Reuters, explains, tin is "the metal that holds - that glues - the internet together."

However, the tin market faces major near-term supply risks due to the shutdown of Myanmar's Man Maw mine, which accounts for 7% of worldwide output. The mine was ordered to suspend operations in August 2022 by the United Wa State Army, one of Myanmar's largest ethnic militias, and there is no timeline for when production will resume. The disruptions have caused Chinese tin concentrate imports from Myanmar to collapse over 90% year-to-date.

"Our best gauge of what's going on, since we don't get any production figures, is to look at how much raw material China is importing from its neighbor. That tells me that whatever is going on there, no one's actually mining again," Home states. The longer the Myanmar shutdowns persist, the more likely it is that tin prices react to the loss of supply as Chinese smelters face "genuine distress" and are forced to cut production.

The other key supply risk is Indonesia's ambitions to ban exports of tin and other unprocessed metals, emulating its success in nickel. As the world's largest shipper of refined tin, any restrictions on Indonesian cargoes could significantly tighten the global market. However, tin faces unique challenges in trying to force electronics and semiconductor firms to invest downstream in Indonesia compared to nickel's more straightforward stainless steel supply chain.

While near-term supply risks remain elevated, tin also has a bullish long-term fundamental outlook. The pipeline of new tin mines is limited and over 80% of global reserves are controlled by just five countries - China, Indonesia, Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil. The surging demand from electronics, EVs and renewable energy could leave the tin market facing structural deficits by the end of the decade.

For investors looking to gain exposure to these tin dynamics, the options are buying physically-backed tin ETFs, shares of major listed producers like Yunnan Tin and Malaysia Smelting Corp, or investing in diversified miners with some tin output like Rio Tinto and Glencore. When allocating to tin equities or futures, it's key to have a multi-year time horizon and be prepared for volatility given the small size of the market at just 400,000 tons annually.

The critical applications, Myanmar disruptions and Indonesian export policy risks mean tin could fly under the radar to be one of the best performing metals of the coming years. As Home concludes, "If you want to know why tin's outperformed on the futures markets this year, it's that - that's the risk premium. Everyone knows there's a problem here, and we all know that we have no idea when the problem's going to be resolved."

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Recording date: 4th November 2024

The nickel market is on the cusp of a major inflection point. Prices look poised to surge back towards $20,000 per ton by year-end and could have much further to run as a structural supply deficit emerges.

The key driver is the rapid electrification of the global auto fleet. Electric vehicle sales are defying skeptics, soaring 22% through September to hit a record monthly high. Demand for nickel-bearing batteries is getting a further boost as hybrid vehicle sales take off, jumping 45% this year. With auto giants rapidly shifting production to EVs, securing adequate battery metal supplies is becoming a strategic imperative.

On the supply side, Indonesia, which now controls nearly two-thirds of global nickel output, is weaponizing its position, restricting ore exports to China in a bid to maximize prices and margins. The impact is already showing up in the data, with Chinese nickel pig iron production declining and ore imports from the alternative supplier, the Philippines, surging. But with the Philippines heading into the rainy season, ore supplies look set to tighten meaningfully.

The current low inventories on the London Metal Exchange, equivalent to less than two weeks of consumption, suggest the market is much tighter than the analyst consensus, which is still calling for surpluses. The potential for Indonesia to take a page out of OPEC's playbook and exert more control over nickel supply is a major wildcard that is underappreciated by many market participants. For investors, this backdrop creates opportunities in nickel explorers and developers. Projects that can deliver scalable, battery-grade supply from stable jurisdictions look particularly well positioned to fill the looming supply gap and benefit from government efforts to build homegrown supply chains. The US is kickstarting this trend, allocating $4 million for engineering studies at Canada Nickel's Crawford project in Ontario, with billions more earmarked to build out domestic critical mineral capacity.

Other junior miners are also making promising discoveries. Power Nickel hit 40 meters of high-grade mineralization in Quebec. Talon Metals intersected nearly 100 meters of nickel in Michigan. FPX Nickel is advancing a major new nickel deposit in British Columbia. Each success increases the odds that the battery industry can diversify supplies beyond Indonesia.

The next few months could provide a lower-risk window to build positions ahead of the expected upturn in nickel prices. Selby points to the 1970s, when investing in oil projects outside of OPEC after the embargo proved to be a winning strategy for the next two decades. While near-term volatility is likely, the long-term supply-demand fundamentals for nickel look highly compelling. As Selby sums it up: "Being investing in a commodity that's being managed effectively by a group is a generational opportunity to make a lot of money."

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Recording date: 17th October 2024
Interview with Andy Home, Senior Metals Columnist, Reuters

The global metals market is experiencing significant volatility and transformation, driven by the ongoing energy transition and geopolitical tensions. This dynamic landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on the critical minerals sector.
Lithium, a key component in electric vehicle batteries, has seen dramatic price fluctuations. After reaching record highs, prices have plummeted due to increased supply and slower-than-expected EV sales growth. However, the long-term outlook remains bullish, as evidenced by Rio Tinto's recent $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium. This deal, which will make Rio Tinto the world's third-largest lithium producer, signals confidence in the metal's future and highlights the importance of innovative technologies like direct lithium extraction (DLE).

Copper, often considered an economic bellwether, has shown resilience with prices recently breaking above $10,000 per metric ton. Despite projections of supply surpluses in 2024 and 2025, the metal's crucial role in renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles underpins its long-term demand prospects. Investors should note the current tightness in the raw materials segment, with near-zero treatment charges for copper concentrates indicating potential supply chain bottlenecks.
The zinc market faces a supply deficit in 2024 due to declining mine production and smelter output reductions. This situation has led to negative treatment charges for zinc concentrates, squeezing smelter margins. While a recovery is anticipated in 2025, ongoing volatility in the supply chain presents both risks and opportunities for investors.

Lead has seen an unexpected shift in trade patterns, with China becoming a net importer for the first time since 2020. This change, triggered by a squeeze on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, highlights the potential for regional imbalances to impact global markets despite overall supply adequacy.
Geopolitical considerations are increasingly shaping the metals market. The United States and its allies are pursuing strategies to develop domestic battery supply chains and reduce dependence on Chinese imports. These efforts include significant government investments, tariffs on Chinese imports, and international partnerships to develop new resources. For investors, these initiatives could create opportunities in companies positioned to benefit from government support and shifting supply chains.

Recycling and technological innovation are emerging as critical factors in the metals sector. The potential for increased "urban mining" in China could significantly impact global copper supply, while advancements in extraction technologies like DLE could reshape the competitive landscape in lithium production.

Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for critical minerals remains strong. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for these materials could increase by up to six times by 2040 in a scenario consistent with meeting Paris Agreement goals. This growth trajectory presents compelling opportunities for investors willing to weather short-term fluctuations.

To navigate this complex landscape, investors should consider a balanced approach that includes exposure to established producers, innovative junior miners, and companies developing new technologies in extraction and recycling. Staying informed about policy developments, technological breakthroughs, and shifting market dynamics will be crucial for identifying opportunities and managing risks in this rapidly evolving sector.
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On prices, First half of the month, nickel briefly touched prior lows around $15,500 per tonne but bounced back up into $16-$16,500 range, where they have spent the bulk of recent time, but saw a big rally where prices moved more than $2,000,$1/lb over $18,000 per tonne (Now at $17,600) as concern about ore supply keeping market tight despite demand weakness.  Nickel inflows into inventory a little heaver –but consistent with seeing additional exchange deliveries before market balances.  One of the key themes from LME week was some optimism from Chinese participants as the latest dose of stimulus is having a change in sentiment – good because Chinese macro issues have an impact on both stainless and battery markets.  Sulphate prices have come off a bit, and ore squeeze driving prices have paused and have seen prices for ore/NPI/stainless come off a little bit.   Continued weakness in lithium prices is dampening any need for the battery supply chain to order raw materials, and they are happy to continue to destock. 

Monthly INSG report – global mine supply only up 1.5%, most notably seeing no growth in Indonesia supply – has stayed flat now for the last 9-months and with announced mine closures, ROW mine supply has declined.   In terms of nickel output, Indonesia has also been flat for the last 9-months (1st half year still had 15% growth, but unless the pace of output picks up, it will show almost no growth in 2nd half).  Demand growth has slowed to 5.5% for 1st half of 2024 – lack of restocking in the battery sector and macro weakness in China having an impact.  Things will improve into year-end, but may not get to a double-digit forecast.

INSG also had a bi-annual meeting. World primary nickel production was 3.360Mt in 2023, and is forecast to reach 3.516Mt in 2024 and 3.649Mt in 2025. The estimates do not include an adjustment factor for possible production disruptions.  World primary nickel usage was 3.193Mt in 2023. The INSG forecasts an increase to 3.346Mt in 2024 and 3.514Mt in 2025.  Therefore, the implicit market balances are surpluses of 167kt in 2023, 170kt in 2024 and 135kt in 2025. NOTE: THIS FORECAST does NOT have disruption allowance in supply (typically 3-5%), which would put 2025 in deficit – particularly with only 5% forecast demand growth (has been slow in 2024, which should mean stronger in 2025).

The critical number to watch is ore imports into Indonesia from the Philippines – up another 66% month-over-month and now representing 5% of global supply.  Some funny numbers in reported Chinese ore inventory levels (remember China needs to stock ore in advance of the Philippines rainy season) – The top 7 ports have been shrinking to flat for the last 6-weeks, but total port inventories have been magically reported to continue to climb up magically – remember that they fiddled with stainless production numbers!!

Chinese participants showed optimism at LME Week due to recent stimulus measures.
Sulphate prices have decreased slightly, along with ore/NPI/stainless prices.
Lithium price weakness is causing battery supply chain destocking.

INSG Report Highlights:
Global mine supply up only 1.5%, with Indonesian supply flat for 9 months.
Demand growth slowed to 5.5% for H1 2024.
2023 production: 3.360Mt; forecasts for 2024: 3.516Mt, 2025: 3.649Mt.
2023 usage: 3.193Mt; forecasts for 2024: 3.346Mt, 2025: 3.514Mt.
Projected surpluses: 167kt (2023), 170kt (2024), 135kt (2025).
Note: Forecast doesn't include typical 3-5% disruption allowance.

Key Trends:

• Indonesian ore imports from Philippines up 66% month-over-month.
• Possible supply squeeze expected in November/December.
• EV market grew 20% in Jan-Aug 2024 vs. 2023 (BEVs +10%, PHEVs +46%).
• European EV market declined 4%, while Chinese market grew 33%.

Company News:

• Canada Nickel (CNC) - LOI from Export Development Canada for $500 million USD.
  New advisory board and senior management appointments.
  Positive exploration results and Environmental Impact Statement filing.
• Magna Mining - Acquired Sudbury assets from KGHM.
  Crean Hill underground mining startup with positive NPV and IRR.
• Western Mines Group - Reported good bulk ultramafic grades and high-grade intervals.
• Perseverance Metals - Confirmed high-grade drilling at Lac Goyot project in Quebec.
• SPC Nickel -  Positive exploration results from Muskox project in Nunavut.
  Good infill drilling results at West Graham.
• Power Nickel - Widest interval to date with significant Cu-PGM values.

Overall, the nickel market is experiencing supply concerns and price volatility, while the EV sector shows mixed growth across regions. Several mining companies reported positive exploration results and strategic developments.

Recording date: 4th September 2024

Nickel continuing back into range of $16-$16,500 per tonne after flirting with $17,000 per tonne last time we talked 2 weeks ago. Exchange inventories continue to tick up at 2-3kt per week and expect to see another 20-30kt of nickel delivered before market comes back to balance.

The “R” word is pummeling the equity markets, and it remains to be seen whether banks will cut interest rates quickly enough to prevent an economic slowdown. Given the macro overhang, nickel prices may have a further test of prior downside, but I think the downside is limited as it is still pushing deep into cost support. We’ll see prices rise to $20K by year-end as we should see a stronger fall market for the EV supply chain and stainless squeezed by ore supply tightness.

In the China/Indonesia markets, the main stories continue to be ore tightness, with ore prices for key grades increasing $1/tonne each week over the last 2 weeks. We are seeing some improvement in stainless and battery sulphate prices, but we are not seeing strong demand in either market. However, we see restocking in the battery sector as we head into the traditionally strong fall season.  It will be interesting to see how ore imports from the Philippines have continued to trend and what happens when the Philippines’ rainy season comes into view later in the year.

INSG stats for 1st half 2024 – mine supply up 2.8%, refined output up 5.8%, demand up 7.5%. 1st half surplus of 35kt (70kt annualized-just over 2%).  Please remember that at the start of the year this number a lot of analysts had 250kt+ forecasts for this year

Quiet few weeks on the news front as typical at the end of August in terms of company news, but some important news:

Canada Nickel published the first of seven additional resources from its Deloro project, which it expects to publish by mid-next year, and is going to give an update on the regional exploration program.

It was good to see news from FPX that the Province of British Columbia has identified the Baptiste nickel project as a project to be included in the province's newly established Critical Minerals Office concierge service initiative, a foundational strategy action to enable the prioritization of critical mineral projects in B.C.

I think you’ll see more initiatives like this in more countries. Jurisdictions tried to have wide-open processes but realised that to prioritize limited resources. It is best to focus on a smaller set of priority projects. 

The big news was about price support from the U.S. government for critical minerals.

An official from the Energy Department told the publication that the new policy would involve setting a price floor and agreeing to pay the difference when market prices fall below that threshold for critical minerals produced in the US.

More importantly, it would lessen America’s reliance on China, which dominates the global supply chain for critical minerals. “If we move forward on anything like this, the intent would be to give the nudge needed to set off the flywheel, versus create a permanent subsidy or cushion for a particular sector or company going forward,” the Energy Department official told POLITICO.

Other big news underscoring the strategic importance of domestic supply chains was antimony.

US Geological Survey data showed that China, the world's largest producer of antimony, a strategic metal used in flame retardants, batteries, munitions, and photovoltaic equipment, accounted for 48% of global antimony mine production last year.

The limits, effective from September 15, apply to six kinds of antimony-related products including antimony ore, antimony metals and antimony oxide, the ministry said in a statement.

The US government had provided a substantial funding package to Perpetua Resources who is building a gold-antimony mine.

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Interview with Mark Richard Gasson, Executive Chairman, and Paul Anthony Barrett, CEO of Rome Resources PLC

Recording date: 30th August 2024

Tin, often overlooked in discussions of critical metals, is emerging as a key player in the global transition to advanced technologies and renewable energy. With demand projected to double over the next two decades, tin presents a compelling investment case worthy of attention.

The fundamentals of the tin market are shifting dramatically. Historically stable at around 200,000 tons per year, global tin consumption has risen to 400,000 tons annually, driven primarily by growth in electronics manufacturing. Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency projects a doubling of tin demand by 2040, even in conservative scenarios.

This surge in demand is fueled by several key factors:

Electronics and Semiconductors: Tin remains irreplaceable in soldering applications, serving as the "connective tissue" of electronics.
Artificial Intelligence and Data Centers: The rapid expansion of AI and computing infrastructure is driving increased tin consumption.
Renewable Energy: Solar panel production, currently accounting for 5% of tin usage, is expected to grow significantly.
Electric Vehicles: Each electric vehicle requires approximately three times more tin than a conventional car.

On the supply side, constraints are evident. With limited new mines in development and challenges at existing operations, meeting the projected demand growth could prove challenging. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to exert upward pressure on tin prices in the coming years. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is emerging as a significant player in tin production, offering high-grade deposits and potentially faster development timelines compared to other jurisdictions. Despite historical perceptions of risk, the DRC's mining code is considered stable and supportive of responsible mining operations.

For investors, gaining exposure to tin currently presents challenges due to limited public market options. Most major tin producers are private companies or tin is produced as a byproduct of other mining operations. However, as exploration companies advance their projects and attract institutional interest, investment opportunities are expected to expand.

Risks to consider include the relatively small size of the tin market, which can lead to price volatility, geopolitical factors in key producing regions, and the usual risks associated with mining project development. Additionally, while currently limited, the potential for technological substitution in certain applications cannot be entirely ruled out.

Despite these challenges, tin's critical role in technologies driving the green energy transition and the digital revolution positions it as a metal of increasing strategic importance. The long-term outlook for tin demand and pricing appears favorable, supported by its diverse applications ranging from traditional uses to cutting-edge technologies.

For investors seeking exposure to the materials powering our technological future, tin represents an intriguing opportunity. As the market evolves and public investment options potentially expand, keeping a close eye on developments in the tin space could prove rewarding. Whether through diversified mining companies, specialized explorers, or future pure-play producers, tin's growing importance in the global technology landscape makes it a commodity worth serious consideration in forward-looking investment strategies.

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Recording date: 28th August 2024

The Battery Show (Copper Bottomed, Episode 17)

The copper market has seen significant volatility in recent months, with prices ranging from $3.92 to $5.25 per pound before settling around $4.25. This fluctuation was driven by Chinese housing market weakness and fund positioning, rather than fundamental demand. While Chinese demand remains soft, ex-China demand, particularly from the US, has been strong. Most analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook on copper due to supply constraints and growing demand from electrification and decarbonization trends.

A major development in the sector was the $3 billion joint venture between Lundin Mining and BHP to acquire Filo Mining, highlighting the premium value placed on high-quality copper assets. This deal could have positive implications for Argentina's mining sector.

Several reports, including from Wood Mackenzie and S&P Global, emphasize the looming copper supply deficit. Wood Mackenzie projects a 75% increase in copper demand by 2050, reaching 56 million tonnes annually. However, new major copper discoveries have become increasingly rare, with the average timeline from discovery to production now stretching to 18 years for mines in general, and potentially 25-30 years for large copper projects.

Major producers like Freeport-McMoRan and BHP are struggling to show significant production growth. Both companies are heavily investing in leaching technologies to extract more copper from existing operations, but the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of these new methods remain uncertain. BHP, for instance, is projecting only modest production growth over the next decade despite substantial investments.

In the junior mining space, two companies stood out. Arizona Sonoran Copper Company released a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for its Cactus Open Pit Project, showing promising economics with a 24% IRR. However, the presenter noted potential underestimations in operating costs and capital expenditures that investors should scrutinize. American Eagle Gold, despite a recent share price decline, continues to report encouraging drill results from its NAK project, demonstrating a large copper-gold system with good grades near the surface and excellent infrastructure.

The overall narrative for copper remains bullish, driven by increasing demand from population growth, urbanization, rising living standards, and the energy transition. However, supply growth is constrained by the scarcity of new discoveries, long lead times for project development, and the challenges of extracting copper from lower-grade or more complex deposits. For investors, this suggests potential opportunities in both major producers investing in efficiency improvements and junior explorers with promising projects, particularly those with high-grade, near-surface mineralization and good infrastructure. The sector may require patience, as the market sometimes expects linear improvement in exploration results, but the long-term fundamentals appear strong for well-positioned copper assets.

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Recording date: 22nd August 2024

Nickel prices bounced around $16-$16,500 for the last 2 weeks – popped up yesterday to $16,800, and flirted with $17,000.

Ore prices have marched higher and increased each of the last 2 weeks – 1.5% Philippine ore key benchmark has climbed by $6/tonne or 12.5% to $54/tonne – flows right through to the cost floor. This is even with demand not quite as strong as we expected at the start of the year as Chinese economy weakness and lithium weakness slowing restocking in the EV segment (still good 8% y-o-y but not at double-digit rates).

As of June, Indonesia now imports 3% of its global ore supply from the Philippines (some good charts from Macquarie). This underscores the theme that Indonesia doesn’t have an unlimited supply of ore and is facing real ore grade is seen high-grading three ways: nickel grade, Fe/Ni ratio, and slag chemistry. Given that weakness, NPI and stainless prices haven’t followed suit with ore prices. Price compression is still happening as NPI discounts narrowed again and sulphate at a small discount.

A little bit of news, but generally, it is a quiet summer:

Electra Battery Metals - $US20 million from DOD – restarting and expanding existing cobalt refinery. They will be processing material from the Congo into finished cobalt products - which underscores the government’s focus on this stage of processing – one of the key drivers as to why Canada Nickel is setting up a downstream business.

Canada Nickel - We continued with good regional exploration news: Best Reid interval to date – 661m of 0.29% nickel, including 100m of 0.42% nickel and 40m of 0.51% nickel in REI-24-35; all eight holes targeting the Reid central core intersected core lengths greater than 620m, with average grades of 0.21% to 0.29%.

SPC Nickel released more in-fill holes from West Graham, with some good, shallow intervals - Hole WG-24-092 intersected 1.15 per cent nickel and 0.29 per cent copper over 12.0 metres from 15m to 27m. This interval is part of a wider interval that returned 0.75 per cent nickel and 0.24 per cent copper over 34.85 metres from 1.15 to 36.0 metres.

Power Nickel (may be renamed to Power Copper-PGM) last few holes from winter program – some more good copper-PGM intervals N-24-060 returned: 10.39 metres (m) of 0.19 gram per tonne (g/t) gold (Au), 14.17 g/t silver (Ag), 2.12 per cent copper (Cu), 2.08 g/t palladium (Pd), 0.4 g/t platinum (Pt) and 0.14 per cent nickel (Ni); Including 4.05 m of 0.31 g/t Au, 18.64 g/t Ag, 2.75 per cent Cu, 2.81 g/t Pd, 0.75 g/t Pt and 0.14 per cent Ni; With 1.7 m of 0.58 g/t Au, 38.61 g/t Ag, 5.95 per cent Cu, 4.54 g/t Pd, 0.95 g/t Pt and 0.19 per cent Ni; PN-24-050 returned 5.45 m of 0.13 g/t Au, 4.2 g/t Ag, 0.61 per cent Cu, 1.32 g/t Pd, 0.52 g/t Pt and 0.11 per cent Ni; Including 2.6 m of 0.17 g/t Au, 7.3 g/t Ag, 0.81 per cent Cu, 2.38 g/t Pd, 0.72 g/t Pt and 0.05 per cent Ni; And 1.25 m of 0.18 g/t Au, 2.72 g/t Ag, 0.95 per cent Cu, 0.76 g/t Pd, 0.76 g/t Pt and 0.29 per cent Ni.

Premium Nickel initial 43-101 resource (an increase from historic resource) Selebi Main Deposit - Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of 18.89 million tonnes at 3.51% CuEq or 1.70% NiEq. Contained metal Inferred - 165,000 tonnes nickel and 319,000 tonnes copper. Selebi North Deposit - Indicated Mineral Resource Estimate of 3.00 million tonnes at 2.92% CuEq or 1.42% NiEq. Contained metal Indicated - 29,000 tonnes nickel and 27,000 tonnes copper. Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of 5.83 million tonnes at 3.11% CuEq or 1.51% NiEq. Contained metal Inferred - 62,000 tonnes nickel and 52,000 tonnes copper. — Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/nickel Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Recording date: 2nd August 2024

The Nickel Market: A Strategic Investment in the Green Energy Transition

Down 5%, back up 7% - welcome to the nickel world. Nickel back up to $16,500 range ($7.50/lb) after getting all the way down to $15,500 when we last spoke 2 weeks ago

The “Great Compression” continues – NPI discounts continue to narrow- have narrowed by nearly 25% over the last 2 weeks.  Sulphate at a premium.  The increase in nickel price this past week will push back out again, but NPI prices will rise again based on ore tightness in Indonesia.  It also feeds into increases in stainless steel prices and stainless scrap.  Stainless inventories also declined.  We will see how this trend continues, but I think we are forming the bottom here to move back towards $20K year-end forecast for nickel prices.

APNI announces Indonesian Metals Exchange for 2025

The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced yesterday that it plans to introduce the Indonesia Metals Exchange (IME) in 2025. With this, APNI wants to decouple Indonesia, as the owner of the largest currently known nickel reserves and the world’s most important nickel exporter, from foreign commodity exchanges, which currently determine the benchmark prices. APNI is sometimes a big talker, but it indicates how Indonesia feels about “managing the nickel market.”

Delong – 2nd largest Chinese NPI and stainless producer, declared bankruptcy in the last 2 weeks.  Had been struggling for a while – again, a good indication that these prices are at a bottom and well-supported at these levels

US dollar remains strong – want to emphasize pricing in commodity currency.  See through the gloom – nickel prices in $C are higher (other than recent spike) since 2011 !!!

Market Dynamics and Price Recovery
After a period of price compression, nickel has rebounded by 7%, reaching $16,500 per ton or $7.50 per pound. This recovery suggests that the market may be forming a bottom, potentially setting the stage for further growth. Industry expert Mark Selby points to a phenomenon he calls the "great compression," which has been affecting the nickel market for the past 18-24 months. This situation appears to be resolving, with discounts on intermediate products narrowing and stainless steel inventories declining.

Indonesia's Growing Influence
Indonesia, a major player in the global nickel market, is taking steps to assert greater control over nickel pricing. The country plans to create an Indonesian Metals Exchange by 2025 to decouple local nickel prices from London Metal Exchange fluctuations. This move underscores Indonesia's strategy to maximize revenue from its substantial nickel resources and could lead to more stable pricing in the long term.

Unlike China, which has historically provided cheap raw materials, Indonesia is prioritizing the profitability of its mining and processing operations. This stance has already contributed to the country's shift from trade deficits to surpluses, largely driven by nickel and stainless steel exports.

Currency Effects and Regional Competitiveness
An often overlooked factor is the impact of currency fluctuations on nickel pricing. When viewed in Canadian or Australian dollars, current nickel prices are at their highest levels since 2011, excluding the past two years. This currency effect creates favorable conditions for nickel producers in these countries, potentially stimulating increased supply and investment in these regions.

Key Projects and Technological Advancements
Several nickel mining companies are making significant progress in developing their projects, which could have important implications for future nickel supply:

FPX Nickel is advancing towards a feasibility study, implementing cost reductions and environmental improvements, such as trolley systems, to reduce its carbon footprint.

Lifezone Metals is developing the high-grade Kabanga mine and exploring refinery options, though it faces challenges due to location and processing technology.

Canada Nickel Company is making rapid progress on its Crawford project, achieving high-grade nickel concentrate in tests and showing potential for improved economics.

Environmental Considerations
The nickel industry is increasingly focusing on reducing its environmental footprint, a crucial factor for investors considering the growing emphasis on ESG criteria. Projects incorporating design elements to minimize carbon emissions are likely to become key differentiators in the market, particularly as demand from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors continues to grow.

However, investors should remain aware of potential challenges, including geopolitical risks related to Indonesia's growing influence, technological developments in battery chemistry that could impact nickel demand, and the success or failure of new processing technologies.
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Recording date: 18th July 2024

The Battery Show (Copper Bottomed, Episode 16)

The copper market has seen significant action over the past two months, with prices rising to around $5/lb before pulling back to current levels of $4.41/lb. This volatility has been driven by fund flows and aggressive trading by financial institutions, sometimes at odds with on-the-ground market conditions in China. While Chinese copper traders were seeing weakness in housing completions, which typically drive copper demand, prices rose due to strong US demand and bullish sentiment around copper's long-term prospects.

Demand for copper continues to grow from electric vehicles, with global EV sales expected to reach 17 million units this year. The rapid growth of data centers is also driving significant copper demand, with global data center electricity usage now exceeding that of most countries. However, there are some headwinds, including China's state grid shifting to aluminum for some high-voltage transmission lines.

The long-term outlook for copper remains very bullish due to the difficulty in bringing new supply online. It takes an average of 23 years from discovery to production for new copper mines, and the pipeline of new projects is insufficient to meet projected demand growth. This supply crunch is expected to drive significant price volatility in the coming years.

M&A activity is heating up in the copper space as major miners look to acquire assets rather than develop them from scratch. There are rumors of potential bids for companies like Teck Resources and Filo Mining. Meanwhile, developers like Marimaca Copper and Foran Mining have successfully raised capital to advance their projects.

On the exploration front, several companies reported promising drill results. Highlights include Filo Mining's continued expansion of its high-grade zone, NGX Minerals' bonanza-grade intercepts at its Luna project, and Solaris Resources' restart of drilling at Warintza. Smaller explorers like Atex Resources, Aldebaran Resources, and C3 Metals also reported encouraging results that expand the potential of their respective projects.

For investors, the copper sector offers opportunities across the risk spectrum. Major producers and advanced developers provide more stable exposure to rising copper prices. Exploration-stage companies offer higher risk-reward potential, with the possibility of significant share price appreciation on discovery success. Given the strong long-term fundamentals, a basket approach of copper-focused investments could be an attractive way to gain exposure to the sector.

Key factors for investors to watch include Chinese copper demand trends, particularly in the property sector; the pace of global EV adoption and grid infrastructure buildout; progress on permitting and construction of new mines, especially in challenging jurisdictions; and potential technology breakthroughs in areas like extraction techniques or recycling that could impact the supply-demand balance. Overall, the copper market appears poised for an extended period of tight supply and rising prices, creating a favorable environment for well-positioned companies across the value chain.

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