The Battery Show

Interview with Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel

Recording date: 2nd May 2024

Nickel bouncing around on either side of $19,000.  Post our last meeting, nickel got up to $19,700 before turning back down, dropping through $19,000 last night for the first time in 2 weeks.

LME inventories, after falling down to mid-70 thousand tonnes, have bounced back up to a high 70 thousand tonnes

The price rally has been helped by short covering – remember back to pre-Chinese New Year – funds at the largest short position ever (which helped support my case for limiting downside and case for the rally); funds now covered those shorts and are actually positioned slightly long.  Positioning pretty neutral generally helps prevent moves from getting too big.

For those of you who are long copper, the green signals I saw 5-6 months ago are long gone.  We still may see one more surge higher, but I think we’ve topped out for a while.  Take some profits

INSG put out their April forecast (they meet twice a year).  World primary nickel production was 3.060Mt in 2022 and 3.356Mt in 2023, and is forecast to reach 3.554Mt in 2024. The estimates do not include an adjustment factor for possible production disruptions. World primary nickel usage was 2.963Mt in 2022 and 3.193Mt in 2023. The INSG forecasts an increase to 3.445Mt in 2024.

Therefore, the implicit market balances are surpluses of 98kt in 2022, 163kt in 2023 and 109kt in 2024.  This compares to forecast surpluses last October of 223kt in 2023 and 239kt in 2024.

Note INSG only forecasts supply without a disruption allowance,  At a 3-5% allowance, their 2024 forecast is effectively a deficit, particularly as they only have 8% demand growth (my forecast is for 10+% this year)

First Quantum confirmed previously announced shutting down mining at Ravensthorpe and processing lower-grade stockpiles

Magna Mining got a permit to take a water–key permit which will allow them to start dewatering ramp and begin exploration development (which will allow them to mine and have ore processed)

FPX Metals announced a successful pilot plant to process 76 tonnes of material, which confirmed metallurgical performance and successfully tested some process optimizations which should further simplify their flowsheet

Ardea Resources deal with SMM and Mitsubishi – earn 50% by spending $A98 million by funding and completing feasibility study targeting 2nd half  This will be important to see what cost structures will look like for Australian laterites – most of the projects have been around since the 1970s (Inco optioned this project in the 2000s) and this is one of the bigger/better ones, SMM is a leader in HPAL production and will be interesting to see what economics will look like given cost structures in Australia

Queensland Pacific Metals (QPM) is now a gas producer – shelving nickel project – sadly not surprised, the basis of technology was the nitric acid leaching process, which historically has not been shown to work.  Attracted several auto/battery investors into the project (POSCO, LGES, GM) – project FS in late 2022 used $27K nickel prices ($25K nickel price +$2,204 sulphate premium), $60K cobalt prices

Western Mines getting some interesting results at their Mulga Tank project east of Kalgoorlie (had said one to keep an eye on)  – getting large disseminated dunite with some higher grade intervals (over1%) over narrower intervals

Aston Minerals announced metallurgical work – very good recovery numbers to good grade concentrate - flowsheet looks pretty similar to other projects 

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A weekly Nickel market review with Mark Selby Nickel Market commentator and CEO of Canada Nickel Corp.

Recording date: 18th April 2024

The nickel price has surged by a significant margin, climbing another couple of percent to reach $18,200. This marks a substantial retracement from the previous high of $18,000s. Additionally, LME inventories have seen a 3% decrease over the past week, a factor that is expected to bolster market sentiment.

Nickel and stainless prices in China pushed higher, which squeezed sulphate premiums as sulphate prices ticked a little lower – we should see this premium continue to compress back to a small premium/discount. NPI prices ticked a little higher, but discounts widened with a spike higher in nickel prices

European stainless steel prices have experienced an upward trend due to strikes at key plants. This development is likely to have a significant impact on the market, influencing future price movements.

Rho Motion reported that Global EV sales were up 21% in Q1 y-o-y, with March sales up 12%. However, slow sales in Germany, where subsidies were cut, hurt overall growth rates.

Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023:
+21% Global
+7% EU & EFTA & UK
+31% China
+13% US & Canada
+21% RoW

Company News

Horizonte Minerals – unfortunately, another leg down – announced the inability to secure financing to continue construction on the project. The position is now where lenders can enforce security on all the company’s assets leaving investors at zero.

Aston Minerals announced an updated resource. The Indicated Mineral Resource is 231 Mt at 0.27% Ni, 0.011% Co (0.30% NiEq1), a significant 44% increase. Inferred Mineral Resource is 1,039 Mt at 0.27% Ni, 0.011% Co (0.30% NiEq1), a 17% increase to Inferred tonnes compared to the February 2023 initial resource.

Canada Nickel made two announcements: awarding the FEED contract to Ausenco and a team of engineering firms that delivered FS to continue to advance Crawford towards the mid-2025 construction decision. Its subsidiary NetZero Metals announced industry-leading engineering firms SMS and Metso for steel plant design and nickel plant design.

Premium Nickel more assays from Selebi deposit – some good nickel (not ni-eq) grades and some step-outs from it's existing resource. Highlights include:

SNUG-23-070 (South Limb, within historic resource): 15.95 metres of 2.05% NiEq (1.32% Ni, 1.20% Cu, 0.07% Co)incl. 8.80 metres of 3.03% NiEq (2.07% Ni, 1.53% Cu, 0.11% Co)

SNUG-24-077 (South Limb, 26 metres down plunge of historic resource): 6.70 metres of 3.74 % NiEq (2.43% Ni, 2.19% Cu, 0.12% Co)

SNUG-24-086a (South Limb/N2, 245 meters down plunge of N2 historic resource): 9.50 metres of 1.40% NiEq (1.15% Ni, 0.29% Cu, 0.06% Co)7.05 metres of 1.73% NiEq (1.45% Ni, 0.33% Cu, 0.07% Co)

Denarius Metals – first time talking about it. The multi-asset developer announced a PFS on the restart of the Aguablanca mine previously run by Lundin. Over its 6-year life in the PFS, a total of 4.8 million tonnes will be processed from the Aguablanca underground mine, resulting in a projected life-of-mine net revenue of $480.3 million and LOM after-tax Project cash flow of $105.7 million. The PFS delivers a robust NPV5 of $83.1 million with an after-tax IRR of 213% and a payback period of 1.2 years. Potential to leverage the 5,000 tpd processing plant to recover a variety of metals, and the exploration potential, not only from the Aguablanca Project but also our nearby Lomero Project.

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Recording date: 10th April 2024

The Battery Show (Copper Bottomed, Episode 14)

Copper and gold prices jump again, heralding a junior resources market resurgence. But look! Micro-cap equities have barely moved in the last week, whereas the plus $300 million market cap companies have all posted significant gains. As liquidity returns to the sector it is the bigger companies that benefit the most in the early stages.

Merlin also looks at the build history of the twenty largest copper mines. A golden period of construction 1990-2009 emerges. The heyday of modern western capitalism. Since the Global Financial Crisis, even with ultra-low cost of capital, China has led the way in construction. The implication is that deep, lower-grade ore-bodies need much higher incentive prices to stimulate build decisions. US$15,000-20,000 is likely (that’s $6.82-9.09/lb in old money). Current prices are $9342/t or $4.25/lb. 

A rattle through four weeks of exploration results follows. Merlin reviews news releases from Entrée Resources, McEwen Mining, Metals Acquisition, Gladiator Metals, Pampa Metals and Abitibi Metals - all appearing for the first time. He also talks through follow-up drilling results from T2 Metals and Emerita Resources. 

Go Copper, Go Explorers!

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A weekly Nickel market review with Mark Selby Nickel Market commentator and CEO of Canada Nickel Corp.

Recording date: 8th April 2024

Nickel is up more than $1,000 since we last spoke – now at $17,800 or over $8/lb. Chinese PMIs better than expected drove the entire base metal complex higher – all up nearly 2% on a single day, copper now $9,200 per tonne up over $4/lb. The move will need to see more concrete signs of improved markets/tightness to make an even higher move from here.

In China, sulphate prices came off a little last week so a large premium which emerged came back to earth. On the stainless side, we saw stainless and NPI prices start to level and finally saw stainless steel stocks decline after several weeks of increases. Indonesia are still importing ore from the Philippines and while ore prices in China were flat, Indonesia ore prices went up $3/tonne or more than 6%.

Company News

Karora Resources (KRR) merger with Westgold.

Magna Metals hit some great holes from 109 footwall zone (fluid around a bunch of gravel)

MCR-24-068: 0.7% Ni, 2.4 % Cu, 9.7 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 26.3 metres Including 3.2% Ni, 11.3 % Cu, 10.6 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 4.4 metres

MCR-24-069: 0.3% Ni, 0.3 % Cu, 10.7 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 28.5 metres Including 0.9% Ni, 0.3 % Cu, 25.3 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 7.8 metres

MCR-24-070: 1.6% Ni, 5.2 % Cu, 10.0 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 17.1 metres Including 2.5% Ni, 9.6 % Cu, 17.4 g/t Pt + Pd + Au over 6.8 metres

A couple of big exploration plays outlined their plans:

Talon Metals outlined in some detail their targets both around current resource and in some district targets in a detailed release – a must read if curious about investing in the story.  They are very well-funded as received substantial government money to explore their land packages.

Premium Nickel Resources hosted webcast walking through the exploration potential and targets for their Selebi properties – they do a good job outlining potential scale – will need to see if they can delineate a sizeable enough higher grade resource at the depth where the target occurs.

Released on the day of our last discussion, results from a number of holes – some good infill holes in existing resource but also some good extensions – these are the ones that will be most helpful to expand the resource and also some higher tenor nickel grades (narrow interval of 4% but shows potential)

SNUG-23-017 (South Limb, 180 metres down plunge of historic resource) 18.15 metres of 2.21% NiEq (1.27% Ni; 1.65% Cu; 0.06% Co) incl. 6.25 metres of 3.23% NiEq (2.34% Ni; 1.40% Cu; 0.11% Co)  and 3.50 metres of 3.22% NiEq (1.06% Ni; 4.08% Cu; 0.05% Co)

SNUG-23-069: (between N2 and N3 fold noses, outside historic resources): 5.85 metres of 1.63% NiEq (1.17% Ni, 0.70% Cu, 0.06% Co) incl. 2.25 metres of 2.50% NiEq (1.52% Ni, 1.64% Cu, 0.09% Co) incl. 0.45 metres of 5.86% NiEq (4.53% Ni, 2.10% Cu, 0.16% Co)

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Interview with George Ogilvie, President & CEO of Arizona Sonoran Copper and Simon Clarke, CEO & Director of American Lithium Corp.

Recording date: 4th April 2024

The green energy transition is driving strong demand growth for critical battery metals like copper and lithium. Electric vehicles require significantly more copper than traditional internal combustion engines, while lithium-ion batteries are essential for both EVs and renewable energy storage. Despite near-term volatility, the long-term outlook for these metals is highly favorable.

On the supply side, copper and lithium production is struggling to keep pace with the projected demand surge. Bringing new mines online is a capital-intensive and time-consuming process. Much higher commodity prices will be needed to incentivize the necessary investments. This creates an attractive opportunity for investors in well-positioned copper and lithium developers.

Arizona Sonoran Copper Company is advancing the Cactus Mine in Arizona, which boasts 7.4 billion lbs of copper resources - the 6th largest unmined deposit in the U.S. The company expects to produce 55,000 tons of cathode annually over an initial 21-year mine life, with significant expansion potential. The project benefits from existing infrastructure, including roads, power, and water. Management is targeting very low carbon emissions, which could command a "green copper" premium. With a low capital intensity of $10,300 per annual ton of production capacity, Arizona Sonoran is well-placed to deliver strong returns in a rising copper price environment.

American Lithium offers exposure to both lithium and uranium through its projects in Nevada and Peru. The company's two key lithium assets, TLC and Falchani, are both at surface and amenable to low-cost open-pit mining. American Lithium's straightforward processing approach yields a high-purity lithium chemical on-site, reducing dependence on Chinese refiners. The company's projects have a combined NPV of $8.5B based on recent studies, far exceeding its current $200M market capitalization. American Lithium is also working to unlock value from its uranium asset, providing an additional avenue for growth.

While the EV revolution is global in nature, increasing emphasis on supply chain security is driving efforts to boost domestic production of these critical metals, particularly in the United States. Government incentives and a streamlined permitting process could provide a tailwind for U.S. copper and lithium projects in the coming years. By investing in companies like Arizona Sonoran Copper and American Lithium, investors can gain leveraged exposure to rising metals prices, while also participating in the re-rating potential as these projects move towards production.

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Recording date: 27 March 2024

Nickel continues to retrace gains – down to $16,600 – more than $1,000 bottom, but has given up about 2/3 of its move from the recent peak. Expect a range of $16,500-$17,500 for the next while.

A Tale of Two Markets in China

Nickel sulphate continued to climb – up another 3% this week. The “great conversion” that I discussed is continuing – discount coefficients of MHP and high nickel matte remained at high levels of 80-81% and 84-85% respectively and with nickel prices dropping this week will be interesting to see if these coefficients continue to climb higher (expect by end of the year for both to getting towards 90%).

Stainless on the other hand remains sloppy with inventories continuing to build and prices continuing to lower. Indonesia is working through a backlog of ore approvals which is causing some immediate market concerns about the supply squeeze of ore. 153 million tonnes of quota have been approved versus total production in 2023 of 194 million tonnes. Will need to see that number get up to 210 million tonnes this year.

NPI discounts contracted a little bit – will see what happens with discounts this week. Once matte gets back up towards 90% range, should see NPI discounts contract and complete “great convergence”. As said last week, will need to see both markets improve before seeing the next leg higher and will see nickel consolidate in this range.

Company News

Last week, Talon Metals put out a nice hole of 12.72 meters (41.7 feet) of high-grade massive nickel and copper mineralization assaying 6.04% Ni and 2.68% Cu (7.5% NiEq) located 10 meters outside of the Tamarack Resource Area at a depth of 380.7 meters. An additional 25.26 meters (82.87 feet) of disseminated sulphides assaying at 0.695% Ni and 0.493% Cu (1.13% NiEq) starting at a depth of 435.6 meters. They said they had 4 rigs going so we should see more results over the coming weeks.

BHP cut 25% of the contractor workforce at the West Musgrave project as it slows spending in nickel space. This is the project they sold for $250K cash in 2014 + 2% royalty + $10 million production payment and bought back for ~$2 billion.
 
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Recording date: 20th March 2024

Nickel is in the $17,500 range (just under $8/lb) off about $1,000/tonne since last week’s recent high and retracing some of the gains. Still up 10% from the bottom – remember don’t go up or down in a straight line so this kind of pullback is expected.

In China, we are still seeing expected battery restocking with sulphate prices up another 2% this week, however, stainless markets looking a little sluggish with inventories ticking higher and prices coming off.

To be able to take nickel prices another leg higher, will likely need to see both batteries and stainless moving higher so expect we’ll settle into this nickel price range for a bit.

Company News

Canada Nickel’s best hole yet at Reid – one of the top targets - best interval to date at the first hole at Reid - 675 metres of 0.25% nickel including 142 metres of 0.32% nickel and 24 metres of 0.40% nickel in REI24-17. The first section delineating over 800-metre width of the target ultramafic sequence - nearly 2 times thicker than Crawford and a new discovery at Newmarket.

The first 2 holes at Newmarket hit, including 373 metres of 0.24% nickel in NEW24-01 The initial Newmarket results are also very encouraging, despite the fact CNC were only able to drill at the least attractive geophysical target due to seasonal logistical constraints. This initial drilling occurred on the edge of the eastern end of the 7-km long Newmarket target, which is contiguous with the Mann Southeast target and is part of an overall geophysical target more than 3 times larger than Crawford.

Spruce Ridge, which acquired an advanced nickel laterite in Oregon a couple of months ago, has now picked up another laterite and sulphide property. The US is always challenging from a permitting perspective, but this is one of only a handful of places to find nickel in the US and was the only producing region for a long time in the US.

Poseidon Nickel sold its Lake Johnson mill and Emily Ann/Maggie Hays properties (operated in the 2000s) to Min Res who is going to convert it to a lithium processing mill. Change of CEO as they are going from operator to exploration of their Windarra and other properties.

Missed this last week, FPX Nickel announced prioritising critical path activities in preparation for entry into the Provincial and Federal environmental assessment (“EA”) in the first quarter of 2025.

Recording date: 14th March 2024

Nickel broke through $18,000 level surging up to $18,500 – 16% off the lows from a month ago when nickel was “going to be bad forever…”. It has given up some of those gains but it's still trading at $18,100 or $8.20 per pound. When you have a big short or big long position, when people covering can see a sharp price move (gone from 24,000 lots net short to 8,000 net short in just over a month).

We’ve seen, as expected, follow-through battery restocking in the market – Chinese nickel sulphate prices up 3% in one week. Chinese stainless prices have come off a little bit and are showing some weakness (got a bit ahead of itself), but stainless markets in Europe have seen prices improve and scrap discounts have narrowed meaningfully in both the US and Europe after troughing last summer.

EV sales globally were also “going to be bad forever” – no wait a minute, up 32 % YTD February according to Rho Motion

+32% globally (1.5M – 1.9M)
+34% in China
+33% in the US & Canada
+21% in the EU & EFTA & UK

Indonesia

In addition to restocking in the battery sector, a big driver of price support is limits on Indonesian ore supply – reports say that the Indonesian government are limiting the amount of ore supply for this year. An editorial in Jakarta Post – the main English language paper in Indonesia, suggested the following:

‘The idea to establish an OPEC-style organization for nickel was once introduced by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia. Such an organization could help producing countries better coordinate supply and prices. Perhaps it is a good time to carry on with the plan.’

Why would you want to be in a metal where the supply will be dominated by larger players to keep supply in line? An Indonesian minister was quoted saying that they want to keep prices at $18,000 level (I'm sure they would be quite happy if prices sat 10-15% higher in $20-$21K level). I don’t think they’ll be able to keep pace with demand growth later this decade. 

BHP issue (picking on them again) is that they own a bunch of 3rd/4th quartile cost curve assets that are very old and the only new supply they have is in probably the most expensive jurisdiction (Western Australia) in the world ….

Back to some company news:

Widgie Nickel released scoping study to produce 10ktpa of nickel for 6 years with extension potential.  Capex of $269 million, 22% IRR, $400 million NPV at $24,000 nickel price.   Cash cost of $5.36 per pound.

Premium Nickel (PNRL) released 5 additional holes Highlights include:

SNUG-23-017 (drilled 180 metres down plunge and outside of the South Limb historic resource): 18.15 metres of 2.25% NiEq (1.27% Ni; 1.65% Cu; 0.06% Co) incl. 6.25 metres of 3.28% NiEq (2.34% Ni; 1.40% Cu; 0.11% Co) and 3.50 metres of 3.31% NiEq (1.06% Ni; 4.08% Cu; 0.05% Co)

SNUG-24-089: Drilled 403 metres down-plunge and outside of the South Limb historic resource intersected massive sulphide mineralization (assays pending).

Queensland Pacific Metals - Korean news reported QPM announced a 3-year delay to supply nickel to POSCO/LGES to end 2026 at the earliest.

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Surging copper demand for the energy transition creates long-term opportunities, but miners must navigate supply challenges to power electrification.

Imagine a world powered by clean, renewable energy. Electric vehicles glide quietly down city streets. Solar panels glisten on rooftops. Wind turbines spin gracefully on the horizon. This is the electric future we are striving for - one that copper will play an indispensable role in building.

As the world charges towards electrification, one metal above all will serve as the irreplaceable conduit: copper. The red metal is truly the lifeblood of the energy transition. Copper's unmatched thermal and electrical conductivity makes it a critical component in EVs, charging infrastructure, renewable power systems, and the grid. It's no exaggeration to say an electric future simply isn't possible without copper.

Just how much copper will the energy transition require? Estimates suggest demand could surge 20-30% by 2030 as electrification accelerates - amounting to 5-6 million metric tons of new copper demand per year. This is a staggering figure, equivalent to building over thirty Eiffel Towers out of pure copper annually! EVs alone will be a major driver, using 3-4x more copper than conventional cars. A single EV can contain upwards of 180 pounds of copper. Charging stations and associated infrastructure will further amplify copper needs.

The greening of the power sector will also translate to a copper boom. Solar and wind power are extremely copper intensive, using 5-10x more copper per megawatt than traditional fossil fuel plants. Massive transmission line build-outs to support renewables will create additional copper demand. The EU alone will require up to 4.5Mt of copper for power grids by 2030.

However, the surging demand won't be met without challenges. Copper producers are already grappling with dwindling ore grades, permitting obstacles, and geopolitical risks that could constrain new mine development. Average Chilean copper grades have slipped below 1%, while acquiring permits for a new U.S. mine can take decades. Much of the world's untapped copper lies in high-risk jurisdictions like the DRC. Competing land uses and ESG concerns create further hurdles.

To overcome these headwinds and seize the electrification opportunity, copper miners will need to employ innovative new approaches. Advanced leaching technologies could help unlock production from low-grade ore stockpiles and waste rock. Increased recycling and the processing of scrap like old wiring and e-waste will be key to supplementing mine production. Improving the efficiency of mineral processing and smelting could also boost output.

On the policy front, governments are increasingly recognizing copper's role as a strategic metal. In the U.S., the Biden administration has underscored securing critical minerals supply chains as an economic imperative. Bipartisan momentum is building for permitting reform to support domestic mining projects. Internationally, efforts to "friend-shore" supply chains could direct investment to U.S. copper mining allies like Chile, Peru, and Australia.

Higher sustained copper prices will also be essential to incentivize new production. Fortunately, the compelling demand outlook is likely to support elevated copper prices for years to come. For investors, this creates a tantalizing opportunity. Companies with quality copper assets, experienced management teams, and strong ESG track records could generate impressive returns. The key is identifying miners positioned to capitalize on surging demand while deftly navigating supply headwinds.

The long-term investment thesis for copper is a powerful one. We are on the cusp of a global energy transformation that will require an unprecedented amount of the red metal. The question is not if copper demand will boom, but rather which projects and companies will emerge as the winners to supply an electric future. For investors who believe in the electrification megatrend, gaining exposure to copper is a simple yet potentially lucrative way to plug into the biggest energy shift in a century. The renewables revolution will be built on a copper foundation.
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Interview with Mark Selby, Nickel Market Expert & Commentator

Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/nickel-price-rebound-supply-cuts-rising-ev-demand-4874

Recording date: 3rd March 2024

Less than 2 weeks ago, BHP in a half-year report commodity outlook:
*“While the supply glut was still contained mainly in the Class-II segment of the industry, operating conditions for integrated sulphide businesses, globally, remained solid. However, since the LME began to take delivery of Sino-Indonesian nickel cathode to its warehouses, thus catalysing price convergence between product classes*, loss-making has become widespread. If the LME nickel price is set to $16,000/t, close to the spot price in mid-February, as much as one-half of global production could be loss-making on a cash plus sustaining capex basis.  Producers adopting more sustainable practices could be disadvantaged in this environment, with their efforts not yet recognised with a commercial premium that could help buffer profitability when the base price declines to cyclical lows. Due to the deterioration in the short-term and medium-term outlook for nickel, we have lowered our nickel price assumptions

We, we note that Wood Mackenzie’s long-term Indonesian nickel production forecast has increased by more than +200% between late–2019 and late–2023. Wood Mackenzie utilises a methodological framework for project assessment based on the kind of hurdle rates of return that a listed Western producer would be familiar with. Consequently, they have been continually surprised when Indonesian projects kept coming forward. These projects were also being delivered at significantly lower costs (and ramping up to nameplate more smoothly) than was thought likely just a few short years ago. Clearly, capital has been committed in the Sino–Indonesian nickel complex based on very different return parameters to those that underpin shareholder expectations of capital allocation processes in the West.

Jim Lennon at Macquarie, one of the only banks that invests time in some fundamental commodity research said that after travelling through China said that demand had been understated by more than 100ktpa and that 40-50 kt of supply had been not properly counted and has revised surplus for 2023 from more than 250kt to 150kt and acknowledgement that some of this is in-process inventory build rather than inventory for sale.  More importantly said that the forecast for 2024 now 40kt – that is just 1% of supply – and acknowledged that if Indo supply fails to grow by 13% of forecast than could potentially move into deficit. 

You see forecasts from 20-30 banks, but in reality, they all come from a combination of 4 sources:  Wood Mackenzie, CRU, Shanghai Metals Market, and in the case of nickel and a few other commodities, the study groups like International Nickel Study Group. (other is copper,lead/zinc)
The banks take one or more of these forecasts, depending on how much focus commodities are at that bank, they then tweak the demand and supply numbers and it becomes “their” forecast so these groups Woodmac/CRU/SMM/INSG basically drive most of bank commodity and even consulting firm analysis. 

International Nickel Study Group generally does a good job but depends on countries to provide forecasts and can do some work but doesn’t have a budget to do lots of fundamental analysis 
Am going to focus on the most guilty – WoodMac’s demand forecasts for nickel have been ludicrous.  They understate trend stainless and nickel demand growth, they overstate the rate at which scrap will grow and then (as BHP noted) do not get Indonesian supply right (that is a tough
In their Q4-2019 demand forecast, they had demand getting to 3.2 Million tonnes by 2030, and 4 million tonnes by 2040 (CNC forecast since 2019 is for 5 million tonnes by 2030, our current thinking is close to 6 million tonnes).  WE ACHIEVED 3.2 MILLION TONNES IN 2023. 

As a concrete example of the “cancer” that creeps in – WoodMac had the most ludicrous example that somehow demands for stainless was going to slow to less than half historical trend growth and that nickel scrap growth was going to increase so primary nickel demand for stainless was going to DROP by 2030 !

This completely crazy forecast has then showed up in reports by McKinsey and BCG who each assured me that the “do their own analysis” but had forecasts that were eerily similar to that flawed *WoodMac* forecast.

*CRU* not as bad, but nowhere close their 2023 forecast in 2019 was 2.75 Mt – again actuals will be close to 3.25 Mt when done – so missed by 500kt …..  That  2019 forecast for 2030 was 3.7 million tonnes, more than a million tonnes lower  than CNC forecast (and where we will likely end up in 2025-2026)

Nickel has grown at 4-5% over long periods of time.  EVs wil drive that higher for next decade so why did they have effectively just trend demand growth until 2030.