September 12, 2024

The better mousetrap fallacy

44 minutes

Deploy or innovate? Scale up an existing technology or develop a breakthrough? Build, build, build, or invent a better mousetrap?

The question isn’t which strategy to follow; it’s which strategy to use in which sector. Virtually no one thinks that solar needs brand new tech breakthroughs to scale. Crystalline silicone took the lion’s share of the market years ago from cadmium telluride, amorphous silicon, CIGS and other early solar technologies.

But in carbon removal, batteries, nuclear, and other industries — should we develop new technologies, or scale up a promising few?

In this episode, Shayle talks to his colleague Andy Lubershane about the better mousetrap fallacy in climate tech. Andy is the head of research and a partner at Energy Impact Partners. He argues that, in certain industries, investing in building a better mousetrap is a bad use of capital, and that too many options causes analysis paralysis for would-be customers.

Shayle and Andy cover topics like:

How scaling up technologies – as Chinese manufacturers have scaled up solar and batteries – drives down cost

Why new technologies that aren’t five or 10 times better than an incumbent may fail to beat the cost curve

Whether batteries need breakthroughs, and how Andy thinks about lithium-iron-phosphate, sodium-ion, thermal, and iron-air

Why Andy thinks that the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions should license more new projects than new technologies

The challenge of having more direct air capture technologies than buyers

Recommended resources

Catalyst: The cost of nuclear

Latitude Media: Is large-scale nuclear poised for a comeback?

Catalyst: Seeking the holy grail of batteries

Catalyst: Growing the carbon dioxide removal market

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