The Big Conversation

This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to ask the big question on everyone’s lips right now: “Are we about to see capitulation in markets?" With the help of Refinitiv’s exhaustive data, the answers lie in the keeping a close eye on measurements such as unemployment, consumer sentiment and the ISM. But keep an eye too on the correlation between assets, because that can be a very good sign that we are teetering on the edge. 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the key role that US employment will play in defining the depth of a recession and the lows in the equity market. All recessions since 1970 have seen unemployment rise dramatically through the recession. So far, unemployment has not yet turned.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the dilemma for the Fed. If the economy recovers, then inflation should pick up. If the economy stumbles and the Fed pivots, inflation should pick up. Historically, it’s a recession that brings prices under control. Does the Fed need to manufacture one?

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at market developments leading up to last week's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. An easing in financial conditions doesn't appear to be in-line with the wishes of a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has raised the risk of a significant re-pricing in risk assets. With one of the shortest speeches at Jackson Hole by a Fed Chair in recent history, Powell's comments came across firm and direct, as the Fed attempted to set the record straight.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the possibility of a pause by the Fed and potentially a pivot. A recession should cap prices, but if the Fed eases-off too early, prices could rebound again, as they did in the 1970’s.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv’s best in class data to look at market positioning around a potential Fed pivot. With a strong rally in risk assets following the July FOMC meeting, the market seems to be pricing slower growth – and potentially lower inflation – which could lead an increasingly data dependant Fed to curtail its rate hikes. But, as more recent rhetoric from policymakers has downplayed recession fears and reiterated the need to get inflation under control, could the rally provide an opportunity for the central bank to assert its hawkish bias?

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the rising expectation of a pivot from the Fed. Growth indicators are rolling over and many in the market want the Fed to support growth and abandon its fight against rising prices. But, if the Fed pivots too soon, it could lead to another painful leg higher in inflation. In the Chatter, LSEG’s Wayne Bryan looks at the European Energy crisis which could see Europe flirting with recession for the rest of the year and beyond.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Jamie McDonald looks at recent developments in various parts of the Treasury yield curve and whether it's signaling that the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign has finally tipped us into the recessionary phase. While nominal economic data has remained relatively robust here in the United States, the picture is less clear when factoring in the impact of inflation. Are fixed income markets hinting that the Fed is at serious risk of going too far? If so, we're already beginning to see hints that the Fed might be forced into another dramatic policy shift. In the Chatter, Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at LSEG, gives her outlook for inflation and the potential implications for various asset classes and equity sector rotations.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at whether the recent run higher in the dollar will also spread to the Chinese Yuan. So far, it’s been the Euro and the Yen that have seen some of the biggest moves lower versus the US dollar, but will China sit back and allow other regions to take a competitive advantage? In the Chatter, we talk to Dewi Johns of Refinitiv Lipper about some of the key fund flows out of the UK.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s James Helliwell uses best in class data to look at whether the current growth scare in commodity markets will mean that the Fed can dial back its rate hiking commitments. The market has been lowering the terminal rate and bringing forward the next rate cuts, but the Fed still needs to get inflation under control. But will they flinch before then?

 

 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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