The Causey Consulting Podcast

Another prediction vindicated. Sadly.

I have been warning you for months on my blog and on this podcast (as well as anywhere else that will listen) that, IMO, the labor market is being used as a straw man. Looky over here at this hawt job market! Why, we couldn't possibly be in a recession, right? Right? RIGHT?!

Now here we are. Yesterday, CNBC published the video, "Will This Recession See Massive Layoffs?" which you can find here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUJsts5qvoc

This is why I say repeatedly: I believe you are playing a dangerous game if you are waiting to be "officially" told that the economy is in trouble. This video is such a depressing yet elegant example of why I have said that.

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Siren courtesy of Pixabay. 

Do Gooder Fatigue? 😆

Key topics:

✔️ How many managers have you had that you felt were a true breath of fresh air and a bright spot in your day?
✔️ If you made a job change during The Great Resignation was it more about money or was it because you worried about the company's ability to prioritize your emotions? I'm willing to bet it was the former, not the latter.
✔️ "Back to school vibes" for grown adults.  🙄
✔️ Larry Winget's book It's Called Work For a Reason  doesn't really account for what happens when Corpo America doesn't live up to its side of the bargain, IMO. I mean . . . *gestures towards the Enron scandal* 

Links I mention in this episode:

https://fortune.com/2022/09/09/bosses-done-caring-about-worker-well-being-do-gooder-fatigue/

https://medium.com/@sara_causey/laying-down-the-law-da5487157cb3

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/goodbye-summer-hello-rto-5417772/

https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2022/09/14/the-fat-fire-fyre-festival/

Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 9/12 - 9/16.
✔️ Corporate America is rapidly transitioning from the carrot to the stick. No more free coffee or niceties. Git'cher butt back in that cube!
✔️ Is a white collar recession coming? *Looks around*  Is it not already here?
✔️ $1400 is the new $400.
 ✔️ A slight decrease in gas prices is not nearly as impressive to me as seeing the prices of daily necessity items like, ya know, food starting to decrease. And I do not see that so far.

Links I mention:

https://nypost.com/2022/09/11/goldman-sachs-yanks-free-coffee-perk-as-bankers-return-to-five-day-week/

https://www.gallup.com/workplace/398306/quiet-quitting-real.aspx

https://tinyurl.com/22s3zn5v

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/where-are-the-missing-workers-4955361/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/nyt-and-nbc-workers-refuse-to-rto-4958121/

https://tinyurl.com/29ddv7ew

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/is-white-collar-recession-coming-6005514/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/how-to-save-money-as-food-inflation-jumps.html

https://www.pymnts.com/economy/2022/how-did-1400-become-the-new-average-emergency-expense/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_VxecAWFxA

https://nypost.com/2022/09/12/dems-spending-on-maga-republicans-belies-just-how-cynical-their-threat-to-democracy-cries-are/

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/economy/umich-consumer-sentiment-september/index.html


Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

On Monday, August 29th, CNBC told us, "Fewer Americans say they are living paycheck to paycheck as inflation begins to ease." Meanwhile, Jerome Powell's speech at The Fed's Jackson Hole meeting was published on August 26th and it tells a rather different story . . .

Key topics:

✔️ "Inflation is easing" yet that's not what Jerome Powell is saying, nor does it reflect the experience of parents who can't buy a $25 backpack.
✔️ When he's talking about a softening  of the labor market, do not be naïve about what he truly means.
✔️ "The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them." He's not wrong there.

Links I mention in this episode:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/29/fewer-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-as-inflation-starts-to-ease.html

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/04/business/back-to-school-expenses-struggle/index.html


Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

In the midst of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, how do we avoid the extremes? Things like total cynicism and pessimism versus toxic positivity / toxic optimism? Avoiding reality versus watching 24/7 news?

In this episode, I discuss preparing for the future and setting your intentions for how you want each week to go. (Standard boilerplate here: this is not advice of any kind. Simply me opining for your entertainment only.)


Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 9/4 - 9/9.
✔️ A zero down mortgage? What could possibly go wrong! *Gestures towards 2008*
✔️ I had a disappointing experience of prices going up so fast the store employees couldn't keep up with changing the stickers on the shelves. CNN published a story about a $25 backpack being unaffordable. But oh yeah - people'r'doin great! 😣
✔️ IMO, it's important to watch what the fat cats do. Not so much what they say, especially to the general public, but what they DO.

Links mentioned in this episode:

https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2006-01-17-real-estate-usat_x.htm

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/homes/bank-of-america-zero-down-mortgages/index.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-tiptoe-perilously-close-130000339.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/census-bureau-3-8-million-110000669.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bed-bath-beyond-cfo-accused-215540458.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/ceo-does-not-regret-rto-mandate-5975154/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/04/business/back-to-school-expenses-struggle/index.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/07/harvard-fellow-using-bnpl-for-food-shows-personal-desperation.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/job-seekers-proceed-with-caution-5978106/

https://fairmontpost.com/should-job-hoppers-leap-one-more-time/

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0f50d41c-d925-3acc-b502-d40f69b42fcb/junk-loan-defaults-worry-wall.html

https://nypost.com/2022/09/06/bear-market-lows-likely-arrive-in-4th-quarter-morgan-stanley/

https://tinyurl.com/muehwvpv

https://news.gallup.com/poll/400565/inflation-causing-hardship-majority.aspx

https://fortune.com/2022/09/07/housing-price-crash-canada-australia-new-zealand-goldman-sachs-research/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
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Siren courtesy of Pixabay. 

Unfortunately, economic downturns create an opening for scammers. Par exemple, there are already warnings about student loan forgiveness scams popping up. In this episode, I predict that, as we see more people treading into the insane waters of coaching, we will also see more con artists trying to take advantage of the desperate.

As always: this is not advice! This is me opining for your entertainment only.

✔️ On June 30th, I predicted: "I would also not be surprised to see an influx of HR/staffing/recruiting folks turning to 'coaching' without understanding how saturated that market already is and how insane the industry can be." Every day on LI, I see exactly that happening.
✔️ There are so many people trying to make a go of the coaching world that a variety of weird little cottage industries have sprung up around it. IMO, we will see even more of it.
✔️ I personally would be very wary of spending money I don't have. I would also be wary of anything that seems too good to be true.
✔️ Jean Anouilh said, "What you get free costs too much." Touché. Sometimes what you give for free also costs too much.

Link I mention in this episode:

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/10858972


Alarm sound effect courtesy of Pixabay.

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

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Today is Labor Day in the US. It feels like we all need a break from the bizarre-o world we've been in lately.

A pump-and-dump scheme in the stock market is when a stock is artificially pumped up through promotion. The stock is sold while the price is high and then the buyers are left holding the bag once the price drops.

Does any of this sound familiar?  *Gestures broadly*  Does it not seem like that's what's happening, well, everywhere these days?

Links I mention in this episode:

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/061205.asp

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/consumers-rack-up-bnpl-debt-for-food-4930665/


Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

For exclusive content you won't find here, become a Patreon Patron!

Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 8/29 - 9/2.
✔️ Media still on that "labor shortage!" train. 🦜
✔️ Rich folks are spending and not feeling the pinch of inflation. Meanwhile, we're given contradictory information that everyone else is doin' better, not living paycheck to paycheck as much, yet also they are using buy now/pay later for FOOD. 🤦🏻‍♀️
✔️ Thus far, I am batting 1000 on my job market predictions.

Links I mention in this episode:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/29/fewer-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-as-inflation-starts-to-ease.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/some-luxury-consumers-are-utterly-immune-to-inflation-former-lvmh-exec-122236963.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fednow-payment-system-launch-2023-194814075.html

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/08/29/federal-reserves-fednow-set-for-mid-2023-debut/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/fed-up-junior-bankers-flee-goldman-5421852/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/jolts-july-2022.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-landlords-blackstone-gobbling-mobile-174500027.html

https://tinyurl.com/4ryph8hd

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kevinolearytv_quiet-quitting-cancer-to-culture-activity-6970765978871758849-n1yf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

https://youtu.be/vHvTU8m3ees

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/freelancing-is-in-5976482/

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/10858972

https://tinyurl.com/ys258w76

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/11205137

https://nypost.com/2022/08/30/goldman-sachs-lifts-covid-protocols-urges-workers-back-to-office/

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/10642417

https://tinyurl.com/4ynctdxe

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
For exclusive content you won't find here, become a Patreon Patron!
Siren courtesy of Pixabay. 

IMO, we are in a K shaped economy. The ultra-rich aren't suffering from inflation as meanwhile, there are people who never fully recovered from 2008. So whatever happened to the good, old-fashioned Middle Class American Dream?

Key topics:

✔️ As a schoolkid in the 1980s Midwest, we heard it alllll the time: as long as you behave and work hard, you can be anything! You can be an astronaut, the President, a scientist who cures cancer. Later on, you're told that actually, no, not really and all that hopium is on par with Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
✔️ "Just like everything else, those old crazy dreams just kinda came and went..."
✔️ Instead of the little house in the burbs with a white picket fence, is it now the 375 sf box home?


Links I discuss in this episode:

https://americansongwriter.com/billy-joel-allentown/

https://genius.com/John-mellencamp-pink-houses-lyrics

https://www.amazon.com/Squeezed-Families-Cant-Afford-America/dp/0062412264/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1661635970&sr=8-1


Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

For exclusive content you won't find here, become a Patreon Patron!