The Codcast

Keolis was on verge of walking away by CommonWealth Beacon

Steve Koczela of the MassINC Polling Group and Politico’s Lauren Dezenski join The Codcast to take stock of the jaw-dropping turn of events.

Lots of the focus is on Boston, home to about one-quarter of the state’s 40,000 charter school students and the place that is likely to see the most charter school growth should the ballot question pass. Two Boston city councilors joined The Codcast to share their opposing views on the question. Andrea Campbell, a district councilor representing Dorchester and Mattapan, supports Question 2. Ayanna Pressley, an at-large councilor who lives in Dorchester, opposes the measure.

Americans love polls. Except when they don't say what they want them to say.

"I'm not sure the polls have changed," says data expert John Johnson,CEO of Edgeworth Economics in Washington, DC. "The results have. The time you really should trust the polls is the closer you get to the election."

Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, says those self-selecting surveys are merely clickbait, for entertainment purposes only, and should not even be labeled polls. He says there often are no controls over who can respond or how many times they can answer the questions, unlike scientific surveys that have representative groups and random selection with a defined margin of error.

Both sides of the debate over the ballot question to legalize adult recreational use of marijuana are running television ads in the final weeks of the campaign and it’s safe to say neither will be awarded points for honesty.

John Carroll, a Boston University professor of communications and former journalist and commentator, and Dave Wedge, a former political reporter and currently a vice president at the political consulting firm Northwind Strategies, bring their expertise to help us break down what’s real and what’s just smoke and mirrors in these ads and the marketing campaigns for both sides.

What should be done? The Codcast talks with Whitney Hatch, chairman of the DCR Stewardship Council, and Stephen Pritchard, who spent four years in the administration of former governor Mitt Romney, including six months as DCR commissioner and a little over a year as secretary of energy and environmental affairs.

The impact of charter schools on district school budgets has become a central point of contention in the debate over Question 2, the November ballot question that would allow an expansion in the number of charter schools in Massachusetts.

Stephanie Hirsch, a municipal and state finance consultant, and Sam Tyler, president of the Boston Municipal Research Bureau, dig into those issues in this week’s Codcast. Hirsch has developed a web tool to examine the impact of charter growth on district budgets with her husband, Joe Calzaretta, a mathematician and software engineer. They describe it here.

The Environmental League of Massachusetts put out its latest legislative scorecard this week, and the rankings provided a number of interesting insights about Beacon Hill.

The Environmental League of Massachusetts put out its latest legislative scorecard this week, and the rankings provided a number of interesting insights about Beacon Hill.

The Massachusetts economy is humming along. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in August, its lowest level since 2001. But state tax revenues are not keeping pace. They fell so far behind the level that had been forecasted that the Baker administration is now trying to clean up a $575 million budget shortfall from the previous fiscal year.

What’s going on? We explore that issue with Eileen McAnneny, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, and Alan Clayton-Matthews, an associate professor at Northeastern University. Both of them conduct state revenue forecasts and work with state officials to develop a consensus forecast.