Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3tLGlvi

Markets today rallied a bit (though they closed off their highs) as Treasury yields calmed down and leveled out.

Earnings season is not even 20% complete yet, so all projections are quite premature, but thus far, revenue growth is coming in +0.9% year-over-year with earnings growth of +1.2%. There will be more meaty data to chew on in the next week and the week after that, of course.

Republicans nominated Tom Emmer as their new potential Speaker of the House, but it is highly doubtful they have the votes in a full vote of the House to get him approved.

A fair question – are many people buying Treasuries now not as a non-recession call (yields higher because there is no recession), but rather as a recession call (one will come and right now we get 5%, so buy now and then during a recession Treasuries rally and yields fall). In other words, is it a trade? And if it is one, is it a good one? Time will tell.

Was 5% the top in the 10-year? It is obviously way too early to say. It fell pretty quickly below it yesterday and today closed at 4.81%. But the bond market volatility in 2023 doesn’t allow us to read anything whatsoever into 19 basis points or 30 hours.

Links mentioned in this episode: