The Dividend Cafe

By The Bahnsen GroupBusiness Investing

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The Dividend Cafe episodes

August 18, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 18
17 min
August 14, 2020 The Kamala Cafe
• Market Recap of the week that just was
• A little reality check on interest rates
• A report card for earnings season for Q2
• Anyone remember China?
• Commercial real estate lending
• Restaurants looking for some help – and possibly going to get it
• Is our monetary system working?
• Economic report card for the week (jobs, retail sales, consumer credit, and more)
• Politics and Money – a bit more of a look at Kamala Harris as the VP pick and what it means to markets and policy (and so, so, so much more)
• Chart of the Week
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
20 min
August 14, 2020 The Kamala Cafe
20 min
August 13, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 13
The market dropped 80 points today though at one point was down ~200 points before rallying over half of the ddrop back in the final hour of trading.
The weekly jobless claims came in below one million (963,000 to be precise), below the symbolic million mark for the first time since the COVID moment began, and well below the 1.1 million expectation. Continuing claims came in at 15.5 million, down 604,000 from last week.
The numbers aren’t “good” – but they are “getting better” – and they are “getting better more than expected” …
COVID Health Information
• It certainly is reasonable that there are differing opinions as to “where” the herd immunity threshold may be reached, and whether one believes it is a lower number or higher number, the “variable” that sits in the middle is T-cell immunity which is a somewhat unknown component in getting to the total number. Nobel laureate and Stanford Professor, Michael Levitt, has been an incredible resource throughout this whole affair, and has provided the most reliable forecasts thus far about “excess mortalities” and other key measures. He has placed the herd immunity threshold at 15-20% (though again, others place it much higher, with varying differences as to where the T-cell immunity level sits in the equation). The University of Oxford study has placed the number closer to 25%, again, because of exposures many have already had to other coronaviruses, as well as what immunity exists from natural (t-cell) resistance.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
12 min
August 13, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 13
12 min
August 12, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday August 12
Market futures were up another 250 points at 3:45am this morning and I immediately thought, “Oh, does Iran have a working vaccine now?” (If you are missing my joke, see yesterday’s missive on Russia). But in all seriousness, markets continue to be trading with very positive sentiment, and with no regard for a stimulus deal (more on that below). The markets ended up today nearly 300 points, and the S&P and Nasdaq each did even better. I simply do not believe the market cares (right now) about a stimulus deal, and the markets digestion (all summer) of the COVID reality has been remarkable.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
12 min
August 12, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday August 12
12 min
August 11, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 11
Market futures were screaming higher yet again when I woke up at 3:30am PT this morning, and if the headlines were to be believed (they often aren’t in financial media), it was because the market was reacting to Russia’s claim to have a working vaccine for COVID-19. The market opened 300 points or so, stayed up most of the day, but then sold off late in the day (dropping from +300 to -100).
The Nasdaq and Big Tech were actually down all day today, even when the Dow was up 300, and the Nasdaq ended off 1.7% today. Energy, Financials, and REIT’s were still positive on the day. The market was not rallying on Russia vaccine news, in case you were wondering, and today was an extremely mixed bag of conflicting signals and confusions.
COVID Health Information
• So speaking of that Russian vaccine registration, here are the facts. First, we are talking about Putin and Russia. Let’s just leave that out there as the fact on which all other facts sit. Second, the registration is conditional; trials are actually still ongoing. Third, production has not yet begun. Fourth, no trial details or doctor/scientist reports have been released, let alone peer-reviewed. Fifth, would you take this vaccine?
• The total number of Americans hospitalized WITH COVID-19 (which is categorically different from being hospitalized BECAUSE OF COVID-19) has dropped to below 50,000 people nationwide.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
13 min
August 11, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday August 11
13 min
August 10, 2020 Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook August 10, 2020
This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from August 10, 2020.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
48 min

About The Dividend Cafe

From the publisher's feed

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts…