The Dividend Cafe

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:

1. Summarize this week’s action in the market, with a summary of the better-than-expected July jobs report

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The market was pointing down over 100 points in the morning futures this morning, but reversed into positive territory when the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 1.18 million vs. the 1.42 million expected (the lowest weekly claims number since the March lockdowns began). After a grind throughout the day, and this time led by technology, the market closed up 185 points.

COVID Health Information

• One analyst I adore postulated that less people are getting tested because they have seen media reports how long lines and delays to get tested (and get results). I am not sure what to make of that, but I can’t rule it out.

• With a h/t to the reader who turned me on to this, I am shocked that the Clark County, Nevada data (i.e. Las Vegas) is not getting any kind of national attention (okay, I am not actually shocked).

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The market rallied 375 points today, again closing at its highest point of the day as late trading added momentum to the market. Clearly expectations are high for a stimulus deal, there was a bit of curve widening helping banks today, and earnings season was substantially better than had been anticipated. I would love to credit the vastly improving COVID picture with some of the Dow move higher, but the COVID challenges this summer didn’t do much to harm the market, so I don’t think one can have it both ways.

(Note the time ledger on the Dow chart; I started today on the eastern time zone but closed the day on pacific)

The ADP jobs report did show 167,000 new jobs month over month, but one would think the number would be higher given the losses of the lockdown. The strong comeback number in June versus this more tepid comeback number in July seems to indicate a slowdown in re-hiring, not surprising given the policy measures taken in July.

As is often the case, I can’t explain why but today’s missive has been one of my favorite to prepare.

Links mentioned in this episode:

The market was up 164 points today, though the % move up in the S&P and the Nasdaq was less. There was a little move up to start the day, then a flat range for most of the day, followed by a dip, and then a rally into the close. My own feeling is that investors are a little hesitant to be unexposed into a close out of fear that a stimulus deal may get announced while markets are closed … (it isn’t impossible, but I doubt that it is imminent).

The “hurricane” set to come through NYC turned out to be a rain shower, and something tells me this won’t be the last time a doom & gloom prediction for New York City turns out to be wrong this year.

Speaking of NYC, they have LESS THAN a 1% positivity rate right now with high levels of testing, and that positivity rate has been less than 2% for almost two months! Their new cases are almost not registering at all (57 yesterday, same as some small towns in the midwest). Hospitalizations were just 15 yesterday – again, 15 is a fraction of what towns 1/100th the size are experiencing. And mortalities have been zero many days recently, and not more than ten in a day for several weeks.

So I am pleased to see all of this in NYC, and hopeful that it leads to steps towards economic revitalization, not the opposite. Now, with NYC’s health status out of the way, let’s jump everywhere else we normally go.

Links mentioned in this episode:

COVID Health Information

• There is discussion of testing coming down in the last few days and it will be useful for validation of case reductions and so forth if the testing does not slow down – for the case declines to be accompanied to steady or growing testing, not reduced testing. The best way to measure that is in the positivity rate, of course.

• Much of the testing reduction, though, appears to be related to the hurricane near Florida. I elaborate on Florida data below in the F.A.C.T. section.

• The data point that is most disconnected from testing, the result lag problem, and even mortality reporting is Hospitalizations. Nothing drives policy decisions more than hospitalizations. If by the end of this week we continue to see hospitalizations and ICU’s declining, regardless of testing and cases, I believe we will see some of the more onerous restrictions start to be lifted as August kicks into full gear.

• The International Journal of Infectious Diseases has published a study evaluating data in Japan to evaluate the effectiveness of school closures in limiting transmission of coronavirus. The report is a tough but brilliant read, and ultimately concludes that school closure was not an effective policy act in constraining transmission.

Links mentioned in this episode: