The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QOLsna

The second quarter of 2024 hit its midpoint this week, and markets have continued with what has been a big rally in the month of May.  As earnings season has now concluded and the Fed is sidelined for a bit, we might expect things to chill out for a bit, but markets never sleep, so who knows.  But this week’s Dividend Cafe does give you a pretty good look at the yield curve and what it predicts (or doesn’t), along with a cogent expectation for inflation, some fascinating things Japan can teach us (or not), some campaign questions for Team Biden, and then ultimately – a real behavioral lesson that may just make or break your success as an investor.

So yes, the opportunity inside this week’s Dividend Cafe is serious.  Let’s jump in!

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Market Update and Economic Indicators: A Snapshot

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, May 16th, the host provides a summary of the day's market activity, noting a flat day in the markets with a brief touch on 40,000 points on the Dow. Despite a mild decline by the close, bond yields rose slightly, and recent economic indicators including the CPI data, Philly fed and empire state manufacturing indexes, and industrial production, suggest a steady, if not expanding, economy. Brian also points out the positive jobless claims data and the rebound in new home constructions as signs of economic health. Additionally, an increase in real personal income and a 35% rise in the S&P 500 since the pre-pandemic period are highlighted as indicators that do not point towards an immediate recession. The episode concludes with a look forward to the next Dividend Cafe installment and wishes for a good weekend.

00:02 Market Overview: A Flat Yet Positive Day

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Market Update: A Positive Turn with Cooler Inflation Numbers

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a financial market update for Wednesday, May 15th, marking a positive trading day with the Dow up by 349 points and a rally in bonds. The episode highlights a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 0.3%, indicating a positive trend in inflation rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed signals with March's deflationary revision and a hotter April.

These figures suggest a potential 2.8% year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is crucial for Federal Reserve considerations.

Despite lower than expected retail sales and a contractionary Empire Manufacturing Survey, the episode suggests these are potentially positive signs for the Fed to lower interest rates.

00:19 Inflation and Economic Indicators Update

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A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets.  Reach out with questions anytime! [email protected].

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UXaYJe

Markets opened to the upside and then spent the first half of the day declining (but not by much) and the second half of the day around that declined spot.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4afqiVW

As I finish up this writing Friday morning the Dow is tracking for its eight consecutive day in positive territory (I have little doubt that my mere typing of that sentence likely jinxed it). The market reversal from April into May can be credited to a combination of:

Renewed acknowledgment that regardless of when the Fed begins cutting rates they have made it reasonably clear they are done hiking rates, and

Marginally improved financial markets liquidity in the present tense and with a vision to the future around the tapering of quantitative tightening, and

A good fundamental backdrop for corporate profits with another earnings season in the books reflective of enduring margins, reasonable forward guidance, and revenue growth in line with expectations

It is a bad time to be a market timer. But I don’t think anyone can even time when it is a good time to be a market timer, so maybe I am just repeating myself over and over. Anyways, we know what time it is at The Bahnsen Group …

… and it is time to jump into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode:

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A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets.  Reach out with questions anytime!

Links mentioned in this episode:

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets.  Reach out with questions anytime!

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44ut20E

The jobs report Friday was the talk of the town, with 175,000 new jobs being created in April, well below the 240,000 estimate. It was the government sector that most missed expectations, with the private sector representing 167,000 of the new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.

Wages were only up +0.1% on the month and are now up +3.9% year-over-year. There is a real irony in how this gets digested, because some say, “oh no, wage growth lower than we want is bad” and others say “yay, too much wage growth creates a wage-price inflation spiral so this is good to see as a disinflationary sign. I think both camps have it wrong.

29 million of the roughly 158 million people employed in the United States works for a S&P 500 company (18% or so). Some I have shared this with expressed surprise it wasn’t higher, and some were shocked it was so high. Data is in the eye of the beholder, I guess.

The bottom 50% of health care spenders account for a grand total of 3% of total health care costs (less than $390 per year). The top 5%, on the other hand, account for 51% of all health care spending.

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