The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bjQ9x6

“Sell in May and go away” became an adage some people love to say in our business, and I really have no idea where it came from. Whenever people ask me if we follow that adage I reply the same as I do about any other “adage” – things that are made up to offer a cute rhyme may not necessarily be the best way to formulate an investment policy.

Some months markets go down. Some months really good investment plans see the holdings in a portfolio increase in price, and other times decrease in price, The investment plan is not better or worse in some months than the others – it is all part of the plan presumably put together.

Various calendar correlations, almanac tidbits, and nursery rhyme poetry are not investment strategies. They are actually not even good at understanding correlations, let alone causations, as most of these things on their own merits and claims are merely 50/50 propositions.

But what is a real investable philosophy is what you can find in the pages of Dividend Cafe. And for a discussion of all those things and more, we start … now …

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dd0xsl

Economic Front

Net exports were the biggest drag (-0.9%), and, as is almost always the case, consumption was the largest contributor (+1.7%). Capex contributed just +0.4%.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was up +2.7% year-over-year last month, matching expectations.

54% of people worked at firms with less than 500 employees in 1980. That number is just over 46% now.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49UmDwH

The first thing I will say is that by popular demand, we will be adding back the “What’s on David’s Mind” to the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday email blasts starting next week for Dividend Cafe subscribers (and on some days, “What’s on Brian’s Mind”). By and large, the feedback to the newly revamped Dividend Cafe has been overwhelmingly positive, and a few knobs turned on the daily programming will continue to fine-tune. Thank you all for your feedback; we are very excited to have one property, one brand, and one medium to deliver the TBG thought leadership to you.

This week we are going to look at the history of yields from the market today, the history of market drawdowns, the state of commodities, the future of national debt, some global debt to avoid, expectations for Chinese economic growth, the energy sector, and finally, some Presidential conspiracy theories. That’s a lot to pack into one Friday. No one said this would be easy; we only said it would be fun.

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A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime!

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wbacib

Welcome to the new and improved Dividend Cafe. What you see today will be a weekly Dividend Cafe each and every Monday from yours truly, complete with a podcast and video. It has come for years now on Monday, once under the umbrella of “COVID & Markets” and after that under “The DC Today.” We are simply incubating it under Dividend Cafe, so there is just one list, one website, and one brand behind it all. You will note on the home page of Dividend Cafe that we are running a daily market recap that will include closing data every day along with key economic indicators. Additionally, we will be running an Ask TBG on that home page, where questions will be answered every day. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, that market recap with the podcast and an Ask TBG will be emailed to subscribers., And then Friday, the same weekly Dividend Cafe article we have always done (see next paragraph) will go, per usual. So check out the new Dividend Cafe, all its bells and whistles, and share feedback with us any time!

The Friday Dividend Cafe looked at the subject of contrarian investing, the state of the dollar, and a few thoughts on oil and politics, and the comedy of bitcoin as a “flight to safety” this last Friday. The written version is here (my favorite), the video is here, and the podcast is here.

Into the second quarter of 2024, it may be a good time to review our outlook entering 2024 and major themes as we continue through the year.

Off we go …

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