The Dividend Cafe

A big rally day after a bloodbath week in markets. Lots to say on markets and more markets today.

The thing most on everyone’s mind right now is surely the raging bear market (in both stocks and bonds). I addressed it thoroughly in Friday’s Dividend Cafe and really encourage you to read it here. The weekly video is here, and the same comments from the video are in podcast form here. The underlying theme is that our pathos very understandably sees times like these as negatives, while our logos must be reminded of how wonderful times like these prove to be.

I was on Varney Friday, was on Kudlow’s radio show (WABC) Saturday, and on Charles Payne today talking markets.

Off we go …

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Today’s Dividend Cafe is sort of the reason the Dividend Cafe started. I didn’t call it Dividend Cafe back then, I didn’t have a website for it, I didn’t post it on social media, it wasn’t re-published on a multitude of financial websites, there was no podcast, there was no video, and it didn’t have nearly 20,000 subscribers. In fact, there couldn’t be any “subscribers” because there was no organized list – just me sending an email from Microsoft Outlook manually to clients I thought would like to hear what I had to say. And the catalyst? A bear market.

The week I began doing this “weekly commentary” we were not in an “ordinary” bear market. In a ten day span Fannie and Freddie had been taken over by the government, Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy, AIG had gone down, Merrill Lynch ran into the arms of Bank of America, and my own firm at the time, Morgan Stanley, was in its own existential (but soon to solved) crisis. Mortgage bonds were collapsing, housing prices were utterly collapsing, and yes, the stock market was in freefall.

Today I write to talk about bear markets. Not societal collapse. Not the mother of all credit implosions. Not a deep and unbearable recession (the “great” recession). But bear markets. The kind where stocks drop and investors do one of two things. We are going to talk about those two things, and I hope when you are done reading you will not merely feel better about this bear market, but even just a little bit excited (as counter-intuitive to human nature as that may be).

So let’s jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, as it does what it was always created to do – present the unvarnished truth in matters of macroeconomics and investor behavior, and do so towards the greater end of the very purpose for which we at The Bahnsen Group work.

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We reversed much, although not all, of yesterday’s broad-based rally in today’s market sell-off – what one day giveth another taketh away. I unpack it all in a deep capital markets dive for you in today’s video and podcast links below that you’ll not want to miss.

Dow: -458 points (-1.54%)

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A rally day on Wall Street and a thorough explanation in today’s DC Today podcast!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +549 points (+1.88%)

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Markets took a decent lead at the open but couldn’t hold it, and there is some more to say about the bond market in today’s daily podcast!

TheDCToday.com

This is a long DC Today with a lot more market talk than you are used to, largely because the “legacy” version is only one day a week and I am purposely trying to pack a lot in. The last week has been brutal for markets and I have a lot to say today to quantify it, and a lot coming Friday in Dividend Cafe to qualify it.

I was the market guest on Maria’s Wall Street over the weekend, discussing all sorts of aspects of the market and investing environment.

Dividend Cafe on Friday dug deeper into foreign policy and geopolitical threats and their potential ramifications to markets. The video is here and same comments on podcast here.

Off we go …

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The stock, bond, and housing markets are in pretty real distress right now as higher rates re-price risk assets, and general instability in monetary policy becomes the natural consequence of years of excess and irresponsibility.

And yet, everyone is already talking about it, making it a far less compelling candidate for this week’s Dividend Cafe. I have covered plenty on monetary policy this year and it will remain a primary macroeconomic focus in my shop for years to come. And as far as the general equity market distress playing out, I do think a general primer on bear markets next week will be useful (I have already begun writing it in my head).

But this week, I believe we are due for a topic that may be more dramatic than even stock market volatility, inflation, or Fed breakage. I think that through the lenses we normally think about various international affairs, particularly as it pertains to countries we consider enemies of the United States, we are missing some economic and market-sensitive ramifications that will be important to better understand.

So grab your globe but not your passport, and let’s devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to a few matters of international significance. I confess up front that it may not all cheer you up, but I can promise you this: It is not going to be the standard level of depth you are often exposed to.

Let’s dive deeper, and jump in, to the Dividend Cafe …

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The market really doesn’t want to close strong these days, going from +100 to -100 in the last ten minutes of trading today.

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -107 points (-0.35%)

The Bank of Japan left their policy rate unchanged (as expected)

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I’d love to say “Fed comments caused the market to drop today” but it would be untrue. Within seconds of the Fed release the market went from +200 to -200, but then the market went back to +250, and that was all AFTER the Fed announcement, the release, and the Powell press conference. THEN, after all that, the market unraveled into the final thirty minutes of trading.

Dow: -522 points (-1.70%)

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A volatile day to the downside in markets today as traders await comments from the Fed tomorrow and as bond yields bring down risk asset valuation.

Dow: -313 points (-1.01%)

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