The Dividend Cafe

By The Bahnsen GroupBusiness Investing

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The Dividend Cafe episodes

October 31, 2022 The DC Today - Monday October 31, 2022
Futures opened basically dead flat last night and stayed there into the evening. Bright and early this morning futures pointed to a down -100 point open pre-market and it worsened from there.
The market opened down -100 points or so and didn’t move much above or below that throughout the day.
The Dow closed down -128 points (-0.39%) with the S&P 500 down -0.75% and the Nasdaq down -1.03%.
The Dow hit 28,661 at one point October 13, it closed as low as 29,203 on October 10, and yet today sits at 32,732, up +14% from mid-month lows.
We are a bit over half way through earnings season (263/500 companies reporting) and sales growth is +10.3% year-over-year (a bit ahead of expectations and earnings growth is +4.2% (a bit behind expectations). Excluding the energy sector, though, earnings growth in the S&P 500 is negative year-over-year.
Right now consensus expectations are for $235 of earnings from the S&P 500 in calendar year 2023. The number was $250 in the summer, so it has come down, but really not very much. Operating margins have declined from about 17% plus change to 16% plus change.
For the third time this year we have a spike of breadth where the % of companies advancing over a 10-day period is in the 99th percentile (it also happened in January and July). In those other two occasions the momentum was not sustained.
As good as things have been the last few weeks, only 40% of companies are above their 200-day moving average. And in some sectors the breadth of companies seeing price improvement is really, really low.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
14 min
October 28, 2022 Climate and Weather in Markets
I have mentioned all week how excited I am for this week’s Dividend Cafe, and now here we are. I have explained why our annual week of money manager meetings is so important before, and have written weekly recaps before as well. But this is different. This week not only comes in the midst of a bear market (as the 2008 and 2011 trips did, as well) but was also the best-scheduled meeting we have ever had, meaning, the caliber and topical significance of many of the managers and economists we were in front of was top-shelf. Combine that with a dinner with one of the true legendary CEO’s in America, and it was an absolutely tremendous week.
It also comes at a very important time. I do not mean that because stocks are in a bear market, or interest rates are rising. I mean it because of the circumstances behind both of these things, years in the making, with years of profound investment ramifications ahead. I believe a lot of perspective was gained on this year’s trip that needs to be applied to a decade of thoughtful guidance, not merely covering a month or a quarter.
I hope you will find the information shared as interesting, actionable, useful, and provocative as I do. And, of course, reach out with any questions at any time. This is the stuff we live for, and I am confident this Dividend Cafe is one you will be glad you read.
So with that, let’s all jump in, to this “money manager week recap” edition of the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
23 min
October 27, 2022 The DC Today - Thursday October 27, 2022
I returned from my meetings in Palm Beach at the end of the day yesterday and hit the ground running (both figuratively and literally) very early this morning. I love doing the DC Today. Special thanks to Brian and Trevor for filling in, and off we go with an action-packed recap of today …
Market Action
Dow: Up +194 points (+0.61%) – but off of a +550 point high
S&P: -0.61%
Nasdaq: -1.63%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.92% (-9 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Industrials (+1.14%)
Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.12%)
WTI Crude Oil: $88.58/barrel (+0.72%)
Key Economic Points of the Day:
Real GDP grew in Q3 at +2.6% annualized rate as net exports grew in light of energy exports being up and Chinese imports being down. Personal Consumption and Business Investment were up, but only a tad.
New Orders for Durable Goods were up +0.4%, below the 0.6% expectation
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
12 min
October 26, 2022 The DC Today - Wednesday October 26, 2022
Today was a mixed bag, where we continue to see varying results from the Dow and the Nasdaq. Some market pundits have dubbed this as value vs. growth or categorized these baskets of equities as a difference in “duration.”
Regardless of how you describe it, we saw some downward pressure resulting from less-than-favorable earnings reports on a handful of large tech companies, and some continued positive momentum from the sectors leading the market on the year (Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, etc.).
Market Action
Dow: +2.37 (0.01%)
S&P: -0.74%
Nasdaq: -2.04%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.01% (-9 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.36%)
Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.75%)
WTI Crude Oil: $88.12/barrel (+3.26%)
Key Economic Points of the Day:
The trade deficit widened in September by 5.7% (from $87.3 billion to $92.2 billion)
There is a lot you could potentially dissect here, but the simplest explanation is that a strong dollar means buyers (exports) can buy less of our goods, and US purchasers (imports) can buy more goods, which expands the deficit – falling exports, rising imports.
New home sales fell month over month (from 677,000 to 603,000), but we were still slightly above the average estimates of 593,000
For perspective here, new home sales peaked in August 2020 at 1.04 million
Although the number of homes sold declined, the average sale price did rise from $436,800 to $470,600 (slightly below the record high of $479,800)
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
15 min
October 25, 2022 The DC Today - Tuesday October 25, 2022
We notched a third day of gains in markets today, up now 11% on the S&P from the intra-day lows a few weeks ago in a broad-based rally in both stocks and bonds, and I have plenty to go around the horn in my video and podcast links below. I have also sprinkled in a few takeaways from over 20 portfolio manager meetings last week in New York to add to your listening pleasure. Take a listen, and reach out to me, Brian Szytel, with questions.
Market Action
Dow: +337 points, +1.07%
S&P: +1.63%
Nasdaq: +2.25%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.10% (+ 13 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Real Estate +3.94%
Bottom-performing sector: Energy -.05%
WTI Crude Oil: $84.92 barrel +.40%
Key Economic Points of the Day:
Consumer sentiment came in lower than expected at 102 versus expectations of 105.
The Richmond Fed index came in weaker than expected today at -10.
The US Dollar was lower on the day by about 1%, along with interest rates across the yield curve that both aided today’s equity rally.
Terminal Fed Funds Rate shown ending north of CPI in all of the last rate tightening cycles is shown below. Today we are at 3.3% versus 8.2%, and while those rates will likely converge, we just aren’t there yet folks…
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
13 min
October 24, 2022 The DC Today - Monday October 24, 2022
I think we have a meaty one today, so here we go with this Monday edition of DC Today …
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
19 min
October 21, 2022 The Indexing Nightmare
Greetings from New York City, where I am two hedge fund meetings away today from being done with a week of extraordinary meetings, insights, and collaboration with our portfolio management partners. Some key takeaways are being summarized for next week, and a deliverable will be made available. More importantly, c It has been everything I hoped it would be this week, and more.
It is a shorter than normal Dividend Cafe this week because of the meeting load (and post-meeting download time). But I think what I do today you will find useful and valuable, as I use a Q&A format to answer a few key questions about the current investing state of affairs.
Let's jump into the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
21 min
October 20, 2022 The DC Today - Thursday October 20, 2022
Trevor Cummings here, and I am honored to be joining you for the third day in a row. As mentioned yesterday, David Bahnsen will be back tomorrow with his weekly commentary – Dividend Cafe. Additionally, I invite you to subscribe to my weekly writings at thoughtsonmoney.com.
Now, off to the updates from this busy Thursday market day…
Dow: -91.01 (0.30%)
S&P: -0.80%
Nasdaq: -0.61%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.232% (+10.3 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.36%)
Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (- 2.51%)
WTI Crude Oil: $85.71/barrel (+0.19%)
Key Economic Points of the Day:
• Liz Truss has resigned as U.K. Prime Minister
◦ This was the shortest tenure in British history
◦ Note, her Finance Minister was dismissed from his post after just 38 days
• Jobless claims came in at 214,000 on an expectation of 230,000
◦ The impacts of Hurricane Ian on the data looked to be much lighter this week
◦ The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits sits at 1.39 million, near a 50-year low
◦ In simple terms, the labor market remains tight
• As to be expected, U.S. existing-home sales were down
◦ The figures came in at 4.7 million, nearly on the dot with expectations
◦ This is eight consecutive months of decline and, when compared to September 2021, a slide of 23.8%
◦ Reminder, mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing, the general population is on edge regarding inflation and recession, and this combination of anxiety and affordability is slowing down activity
• The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index published today
◦ This regional look is meant to give a sneak peek at what the national ISM data might look like next month
◦ the numbers came in at -8.7 on an expectation of -5 (note, any number below 0 represents declining business conditions)
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
14 min
October 19, 2022The DC Today - Wednesday October 19, 2022
Welcome to DC Today where I, Trevor Cummings, will be your guest host again on this fine Wednesday. Please join me for the video or podcast (links below), as there is quite a bit to cover and discuss today. David Bahnsen will be back on Friday with his normally scheduled program – Dividend Cafe
Dow: -98.54 (-0.32%)
S&P: -0.66%
Nasdaq: -0.85%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.131% (+13.3 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.94%)
Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.56%)
WTI Crude Oil: $85.63/barrel (+3.39%)
Key Economic Point of the Day:
Today we saw the published data for new housing starts and building permits
Housing starts came in at 1.4mm on an expectation of 1.47mm
Down 8.1% seasonally adjusted and down 7.7% year-over-year in September
Looking at the attribution, we see new homes fell 4.7% and new apartment construction fell 13.1%
Building permits came in at 1.56mm on an expectation of 1.5mm
Rising 1.4% in the month of September
Permits for new homes fell 3.1%, with apartment construction rising 8.2%
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
14 min
October 18, 2022 The DC Today - Tuesday, October 18, 2022
This is Trevor Cummings joining you as your guest host on DC Today. You can find my weekly commentary at www.thoughtsonmoney.com. Also, please join me for the DC Today video and podcast – see below.
Market Action
Dow: +341.67 (1.13%)
S&P: 1.16%%
Nasdaq: 0.9%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.994% (+2 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Industrials (+2.36%)
Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.54%)
WTI Crude Oil: $83.22/barrel (-2.6%)
Key Economic Point of the Day:
• Industrial production in September rose 0.4% which was a surprise to the upside – estimates were 0.1%. Additionally, August was revised slightly to the upside, as well; a revision from -0.2% to -0.1%.
• The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, making 10 consecutive months of decline. Note, the index was at 80 last October and this 10-month decline tops the record of consecutive declining months set in ’06/’08.
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
10 min

About The Dividend Cafe

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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts…