This week’s Dividend Cafe is going to dive into the “abnormalcy” of the economic contraction during COVID, the abnormalcy of the economic recovery we are currently in (and will be in for months to come), but then also the “normalcy” of pre-pandemic economic life, and what that means on the other side of this. I will humbly suggest that despite the changes in the economic landscape brought about by the fiscal and monetary monstrosities of the last year, “normalization” will mean “resuming our obsession with the question of _____”

That __ is what today’s Dividend Cafe will fill in.

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The title of this week's Dividend Cafe comes from one of my favorite quotes, ever.

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.  It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."

(I attribute to Mark Twain because everyone does, but ironically given the substance of the quote, even this appears to be untrue, with most scholars believing there is no reputable source for who quoted these exact words).

The underlying message here is never more relevant than in investing, it seems to me.  Plenty of people don't know certain things, and that has some impact at given times.  But I am quite convinced that far more damage is done, not at the things that are that people don't know, but the things that people believe to be true (and act upon), when in fact they are not.

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David and Scott recap Q1 2021, discuss economic outlook looking forward, and explore opportunities for investors in current markets.

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The actual event that I am discussing may be totally foreign to you, despite the fact that it has dominated the financial news for five or six days. There is a good reason for this if, indeed, it is true for you. The event has proven to be a really weak “news” story in my mind (not for lack of trying), but even apart from the broader news hype, it has further proven to be a weak “financial news” story, and that really, really comes not for lack of trying. This news story begs for us to address the subject of “contagion risk.”

After listening to this episode, you will know much more.

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Who would have guessed that at the one-year mark of the worst market drop since the Great Financial Crisis, one of the hottest topics in financial markets is whether or not we are in a “bubble.” Am I the only one that sees a tiny bit of irony here? A year ago, the conversation was entirely focused on whether or not millions of American people were going to die, how long the entire American economy would be shut down for (hint: it lasted longer than 15 days to bend the curve), and whether 18,000 in the Dow would prove to be low enough.

Painful times, painful memories.

Today I want to look into the very idea of bubbles, evaluate as intelligently and objectively as I am able what is going on in markets right now and what is not going on, and see if we can’t offer a little clarity into a subject that I think gets quite polluted by poor punditry. Of course, if it weren’t for poor punditry, wealth advisors like us would have a lot less cleaning up to do.

Join us in the Dividend Cafe …

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Zoom Replay of National Call

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If you want a better understanding of the present state of the equity land, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want a realistic assessment of the risk of correction, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want to know what to make of higher bond yields, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. And if you want more clarity on what the Fed is doing and not doing, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you.

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Both anniversaries are vitally important and warrant special attention. One of them may surprise you or at least represent something you have forgotten. Hopefully, that will all change after you hear this podcast.
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Everything is about the Fed, bond yields, and inflation right now.  Sometimes I mean that as if I am describing what really does matter, and other times I am just describing what "all the rage" is about.  "Everything is about" may mean what "everything is about," or it may mean what "everyone is talking about."  In this case, we have the weirdest of circumstances where "everyone" is talking about the right thing, but doing so in the wrong way.  Allow me to break through some of the ambiguity.

On a daily basis you will find media reports expressing shock and awe about a 10-year Treasury bond at 1.5%, and it's fair enough to note the speed with which yields have moved in recent days.  But the coverage really has an implicit message in it that I believe needs to be shunned.  And as is always the case it seems, getting to my destination requires a few detours along the way.

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Investing options are growing at a rapid pace with some what were once fringe investment areas are now making it mainstream to the tune of tens of billions or dollars. With what is happening, what does today's investor do or not do to make wise investment choices?

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