I have been thinking a lot about how unstable the electrical grid is. Everything I am reading and hearing when I talk to experts is America needs a massive overhaul of our antiquated electric infrastructure. The overhaul will not be cheap industry experts say it requires more than $2 trillion. The current network of transmission wires, substations, and transformers is decaying with age and underinvestment, a condition highlighted by catastrophic failures during increasingly frequent and severe weather events.

According to a Reuters examination of federal data, power outages over the last six years have more than doubled compared to the previous six years. In the past two years, power systems have collapsed in Gulf Coast hurricanes, West Coast wildfires, Midwest heat waves, and a Texas deep freeze, causing prolonged and sometimes deadly outages.

The central and upper Midwest, Texas, and Southern California face an increased risk of power outages this summer from extreme heat, wildfires, and extended drought, the nation’s grid monitor, warned yesterday.

In a dire new assessment, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) described regions of the country pushed closer than ever toward energy emergencies by a combination of climate change impacts and a transition from traditional fossil fuel generators to carbon-free renewable power.

NERC’s analysis examined the potential punch of extreme weather, which may wreak havoc on everything from reduced hydropower to transmission lines brought down by wildfires. Grid operators are increasingly relying on intermittent resources like wind and solar as coal units retire and the reliability and emissions of gas resources come under scrutiny. How the summer unfolds also may have political ramifications, as it could affect public support for President Joe Biden’s push to decarbonize the U.S. grid by 2035.

The NERC report also highlighted an increased, urgent hazard to grid operations from the electronic controls that link wind and solar farms to high-voltage grid networks. The devices, called power inverters, must be programmed to “ride through” short-term disturbances, such as the loss of a large power plant or high-voltage line, but too often, they are not. According to the report, Those that shut down compound stress on the grid.

The NERC cited incidents in May and June last year when the Texas system was hit with widespread solar farm shutdowns, followed by similar outages in California between June and August. The unexpected events disrupted traditional power plants, interfered with grid recovery operations, and caused some outages of customer-owned power units.

The report warned that inverter disruption is one of the most dangerous things on the bulk power system. They state that grid operators can be surprised by the outages when the finely balanced systems are already dealing with instability.

Highlighting the most serious regional threats, the report said:

* The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), grid manager and energy market operator in the central Midwest, “faces a capacity shortfall in its North and Central areas, resulting in high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions.”

* “More extreme temperatures, higher generation outages, or low wind conditions expose the MISO North and Central areas to higher risk of temporary operator-initiated load shedding to maintain system reliability,” the report said of the MISO region, which runs from Canada’s Manitoba province to Louisiana.

* “An elevated risk of energy emergencies persists” across the West this summer “as dry hydrological conditions threaten the availability of hydroelectric energy for transfer.” The report said that nearly 3,400 megawatts of new resources are available as scheduled this summer, and California should be able to meet peak power demands this summer. But a repeat of the heat dome that scorched the entire West in 2019 could threaten the availability of imported power that the state depends on, causing energy emergencies.

* In Texas, a “combination of extreme peak demand, low wind, and high outage rates from thermal generators could require system operators to use emergency procedures, up to and including temporary manual load shedding.” Delays in completing new transmission lines now underway “may contribute to localized reliability concerns.”

* The report said that drought conditions in the Missouri River Basin might affect gas, coal, or nuclear plants in the Southwest Power Pool that rely on the river for cooling water supplies.

* It added that some coal-fired power plant owners have difficulty arranging fuel deliveries because of mine closings, rail shipping interruptions, and increased coal exports.

The report warned of threats from Western wildfires, where dry weather raises the risk of ignition and smoke from blazes can diminish output from a utility- and customer-owned solar panels and short circuit high-voltage power lines, as happened last year in Oregon.

On top of this, NERC reported an increased danger of potential Russian cyberattacks on the nation’s power systems in retaliation for U.S. support for Ukraine in the current conflict.

NERC raised the issue of solar power interruptions after the 2016 Blue Cut Fire in Southern California. The wildfire triggered short circuits in transmission lines, leading to voltage drops and outages at nearby solar units.

Earlier this year, California officials described conditions that could occur this summer — including potential blackouts because of power supply shortages. Among the times with high risks: are the early evening when solar power goes away and the month of September.

MISO officials have agreed with NERC’s cautions about the strains on the region’s power supplies.

MISO is facing increased coal, natural gas, and nuclear generation retirements, leading to an inadequate response last month as it lined up power reserves to create a cushion against system disruptions and unexpectedly heavy power demand. 

The region enters the summer 1,230 MW short of meeting its planning reserve margin.

For emergency managers, stand by for power outages, and it looks like help is not coming soon. 

References: 

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-renewables-electric-grid/

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-power-grid-is-increasingly-unreliable-11645196772

Podcasts:

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Intelligent risk is an opportunity where the potential gain outweighs the harm or loss to the organization's sustainability. Taking intelligent risks requires a tolerance for failure and an expectation that innovation is not achieved through initiating only successful endeavors. At the outset, organizations must invest in potential successes realizing that some will also lead to failure.

James is an advocate of intelligent risk-taking, driven by the belief that risk can be a powerful tool to help organizations reach their maximum potential.

Todd DeVoe
Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/ToddTDeVoe
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/toddtdevoe/
Substack: https://emnetwork.substack.com/
Website: https://toddtdevoe.com/

James Green
Twitter: https://twitter.com/thejamesgreen
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejamesgreen/
Website: https://www.illuminateadvisory.com/

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Theory-N2-Practice we talk about leadership through service and engagement with Lorraine Schneider of the Emergency Management Growth Initiative (EMGI) and the Resiliency Initiative. Join us for a great discussion and most valuable insight from one of the best in the emergency management profession, Lorraine Schneider.

Lorraine Schneider, MSc, CEM
https://www.emginitiative.org/
https://www.theresiliencyinitiative.com/

Links:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-scott-m-a-cem%C2%AE-empp-3-59a8a86a/
https://www.instagram.com/d_scott_overdeliver/
https://www.facebook.com/D.Scott.and.Associates/
https://twitter.com/Haven1981

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Occupational stress in first responders is associated with an increased risk in mental health problems, while the emotional toll first responders endure on the job has caused suicide rates to skyrocket amongst the industry. Today, prepare.respod.recover. host Todd DeVoe speaks with Brice Long, COO of O2X, an organization that provides customized wellness programs for public safety departments, the military, and federal agencies to improve the lives of the people that fight to keep us safe.

O2X - https://www.o2x.com/

If you would like to learn more about the Natural Disaster & Emergency Management (NDEM) Expo please visit us on the web - https://www.ndemevent.com

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

It is 2 AM, and the phone rings. It is never good when the phone rings at 2 AM. Your heart is racing, and dispatch tells you that a major fire has ripped through a senior housing development. The watch commander is requesting resources and the EOC to be activated. 

Decisions are being made, and you need to get into your OODA Loop fast, or you will be behind the eight ball. 

When making decisions under pressure keeping things simple makes a huge difference. One of the flaws of being human, we are drawn to complexity.  

"Build a tower, build a team" is a six-minute TED talk by Tom Wujec, which has been viewed well over 2 million times. We watch small teams, from CEOs to recent kindergarten graduates, given 20 sticks of spaghetti, a yard of string and a yard of tape, one marshmallow, and 18 minutes to build the tallest, free-standing tower they can – typically in competition with other teams. The marshmallow has to wind up on top. 

The fantastic part of this talk is that the kindergarten students had taller and better towers than the complex towers that civil engineers made. Why is that the case? It was a simple decision-making process. 

The kindergarten students did not make lists of what was necessary and did not have an ego about who was in charge. See, when everything becomes a priority, nothing is a priority. And at times, a complex system slows down the decision-making process. 

Einstein may have been known for being a math genius; however, his ability to sift the essential from the non-essential made him think better and make better decisions. Of course, this is harder than it seems.

In emergency management, there is an ever-increasing amount of information coming at us. Why is it so hard to sift the essential from the inessential? It is the ability to zero in on what matters most. And yet most of us spend time cluttering our minds with things that don't matter rather than focusing on the simplicity that does.

How do we turn complicated problems into simple ones? We need to break down a problem into its components but look at the problem holistically. Keep things as simple as possible. Simplicity has a way of improving performance by enabling us to understand better what we are doing.

It focuses on finding easy decisions, breaking down what is hard into its simple components, and stripping away anything extraneous. Focus enables simplicity and clarity of thought, leading to a more positive investing result.

Simplicity is Filtering

William James said: "The art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook." And there are no truer words that have been spoken.

In Arthur Conan Doyle's The Reigate Puzzle, Sherlock Holmes says: "It is of the highest importance in the art of detection to be able to recognize, out of a number of facts, which are incidental and which are vital."

And part of filtering is understanding what you know and what you don't know, that is, understanding your circle of competence.

Socrates said that actual knowledge is knowing the extent of one's ignorance. He argued that most of the disputes and miseries of the world are due to the prevalence of ignorance. People tend to believe in a particular set of theories and enter into conflict with contrary opinions, sometimes intellectually suffering from a lack of knowledge which implicitly is ignorance. That in some cases we are making life-altering decisions with hairball problems without looking for the right string to pull.

Donald Rumsfeld stated: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know.

To simplify the decision-making process, you must act on what you know. Understand that you may have to pivot when you get more information that may shift your knowledge of the situation. And keep your eye on the horizon for potential unknown problems that pop up. 

Is it a skill that can be taught or learned? It probably can if you have enough of a stake riding on the outcome. Some people are extraordinarily good at knowing the limits of their knowledge because they have to be. 

When you get that phone call at 2 AM, It is easy to make issues and decisions complex, it is skillful to make the complex easy.

Supporters

https://www.disastertech.com/

https://titanhst.com/

https://www.ndemevent.com/en-us/show-info.html

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

With the spotlight on leadership, it’s worth stepping back and understanding the role that Consultants play in helping drive organizational performance. Leaders face a host of challenges, from setting the strategic direction to ensuring the organization is reaching its full potential, and engaging internal and external stakeholders effectively Today we are taking a look at how consultants can provide help and clarity.

Todd DeVoe
Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/ToddTDeVoe
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/toddtdevoe/
Substack: https://emnetwork.substack.com/
Website: https://toddtdevoe.com/

Nick Lowe
Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/CPARS_EMHS
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-nick-lowe-cem-cbcp-mep-23572a1b
Website: https://www.cparsconsulting.com/
email: [email protected]

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

When building teams it is critical to assess the performance and effectiveness of your team at every level. To gain a deeper understanding of your organization’s strengths sometimes you need to hire a team that builds teams. Anthony E. Coletta Jr. specializes in leadership development, performance management, strategic planning, and emergency planning and training.

Todd DeVoe
Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/ToddTDeVoe
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/toddtdevoe/
Substack: https://emnetwork.substack.com/
Website: https://toddtdevoe.com/

Anthony Coletta Jr.
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-e-coletta-jr-b22637b4/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/anthony.coletta.9849
Website: https://jacobgreenandassociates.com/

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

Bayes’ Theorem Applying It To Emergency Management 

Mental models help us with making decisions under stress. They give us a starting point, think of how we teach triage, “start where you stand”. This applies to decision-making as well during a disaster or crisis, start with information that you have. We can make the adjustments as more or better information is obtained.  This brings me to the concepts of Bayes’ Theorem.  

Thomas Bayes was an English minister in the 18th century, whose most famous work, “An Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances,” The essay did not contain the theorem as we now know it but had the seeds of the idea. It looked at how to adjust our estimates of probabilities when encountering new data that influence a situation. Later development by French scholar Pierre-Simon Laplace and others helped codify the theorem and develop it into a useful tool for thinking.

Now you do not need to be great at math to use this concept. I still need to take off my shoes to count to 19. . More critical is your ability and desire to assign probabilities of truth and accuracy to anything you think you know and then be willing to update those probabilities when new information comes in.

We talk about making decisions based on the new information that has come in, however, we often ignore prior information, simply called “priors” in Bayesian-speak. We can blame this habit in part on the availability heuristic—we focus on what’s readily available. In this case, we focus on the newest information, and the bigger picture gets lost. We fail to adjust the probability of old information to reflect what we have learned.

The big idea behind Bayes’ theorem is that we must continuously update our probability estimates on an as-needed basis. Let’s take a look at a hurricane as our crisis. We have all seen the way it tracks and can predict that it may make landfall at a certain time and location. We can use past storms as predictors of how this hurricane may act and the damage it could cause. However, new information may come to light on the behavior of the storm. This however should not necessarily negate the previous experience and information you have on hand. 

In their book The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver and Allen Lane give a contemporary example, reminding us that new information is often most useful when we put it in the larger context of what we already know:

Bayes’ theorem is an important reality check on our efforts to forecast the future. How, for instance, should we reconcile a large body of theory and evidence predicting global warming with the fact that there has been no warming trend over the last decade or so? Skeptics react with glee, while true believers dismiss the new information.

A better response is to use Bayes’ theorem: the lack of recent warming is evidence against recent global warming predictions, but it is weak evidence. This is because there is enough variability in global temperatures to make such an outcome unsurprising. The new information should reduce our confidence in our models of global warming—but only a little.

The same approach can be used in anything from an economic forecast to a hand of poker, and while Bayes’ theorem can be a formal affair, Bayesian reasoning also works as a rule of thumb. We tend to either dismiss new evidence or embrace it as though nothing else matters. Bayesians try to weigh both the old hypothesis and the new evidence in a sensible way.

So much of making better decisions hinges on dealing with uncertainty. The most common thing holding people back from the right answer is instinctively rejecting new information, or not integrating the old.  

To better serve our communities, have a mental model, work with it and use it to make better decisions. 

Podcasts

The Todd De Voe Show 

School Shootings and Emergency Management  

The K-12 School Shooting Database research project is a widely inclusive database that documents each and every instance a gun is brandished is fired, or a bullet hits school property for any reason, regardless of the number of victims, time, or day of the week.

The School Shooting Database Project is conducted as part of the Advanced Thinking in Homeland Security (HSx) program at the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS).

Prepare Respond Recover 

Saving Lives Through Training 

Due to the uptick of mass shootings over the years, many professions outside of law enforcement are now being trained in active shooter response programs. But have you ever thought about who teaches the law enforcement officers themselves? Join prepare.respond.recover. host Todd De Voe as he talks with Erik Franco, the CEO of "High Speed Tac Med", one of the nation’s most sought-after active shooter training programs for law enforcement and firefighting. Learn about “Run, Hide, Fight” and how this training is preparing law enforcement officers to tackle an active shooter situation as quickly and efficiently as possible.

HSTM - https://highspeedtacmed.com/

If you would like to learn more about the Natural Disaster & Emergency Management (NDEM) Expo please visit us on the web - https://www.ndemevent.com

Business Continuity Today 

Training for Active Shooters Beyond The Response 

Active shooting scenarios focus on the police response, and the larger emergency management role during these complex incidents is often overlooked. However, they are multi-week, multi-jurisdictional incidents requiring command & control, interoperable communications, and a host of other services. 

Supporters

https://www.disastertech.com/

https://titanhst.com/

https://www.ndemevent.com/en-us/show-info.html

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe

The K-12 School Shooting Database research project is a widely inclusive database that documents each and every instance a gun is brandished is fired, or a bullet hits school property for any reason, regardless of the number of victims, time, or day of the week.

The School Shooting Database Project is conducted as part of the Advanced Thinking in Homeland Security (HSx) program at the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS).

Todd DeVoe
Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/ToddTDeVoe
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/toddtdevoe/
Substack: https://emnetwork.substack.com/
Website: https://toddtdevoe.com/

David Riedman
Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/k12ssdb
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-riedman/
Website: https://www.chds.us/ssdb/about/
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/npsCHDS

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit emnetwork.substack.com/subscribe