The Energy Show

This week we’re talking about World Domination. Domination of energy production, that is. In the re-scrambled words of the wise and infamous Dr. Evil: “Why make Gigawatts when we can make…Terrawatts!”

Indeed, solar is on track to completely dominate electricity generation. Solar is growing faster than wind, nuclear and LNG ever did. Alternatives to solar such as nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS), and CO2 direct air capture (DAC) are way too expensive and very slow to scale to meet our needs. And with batteries sited with solar, we’ve solved the problems of intermittency and power when the sun is down.

Costs for rooftop solar and storage are continuing to decline as manufacturing scale increases. According to the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), rooftop solar can meet 45% of our energy needs. The rest can be easily met with utility scale solar.

So as long as we aggressively pursue deployments of BOTH rooftop and utility solar and storage, there is no doubt in my mind that by 2050 our society will be almost completely powered by solar. For more about Solar Power World Domination, listen to the full podcast at www.energyshow.biz.

If you’re thinking about solar there’s something important you should know. It should be obvious, but just in case: there is no such thing as Free Solar.

Getting solar — or a battery -- installed on your house is not cheap and certainly not free. These projects are significant construction and electrical improvements. No company will install solar or a battery for free. I guarantee it.

The Romans had a term for it: Caveat Emptor. Let The Buyer Beware.

Unfortunately, disreputable companies still advertise Free Solar. I see these ads on the internet every day. Many states, including California, have laws against this type of false advertising. Nevertheless, these deceptive sales tactics persist.

The U.S. Department of Energy advises people to watch out for “too good to be true” offers. Beware of hard-sell attempts to collect your personal data in exchange for a free solar or battery quote. Make sure the contractor you select has the proper installation and sales licenses. If you find yourself a victim of a Free Solar scam, your best option is to contact your state’s Contractor Licensing Board or Consumer Protection Department.

Homeowners are even more vulnerable now that electric rates continue to skyrocket. My advice is to be patient, get educated about solar and battery technology, and get references from experienced local installers. These local companies are most likely to design a customized system, install reliable equipment, and provide the necessary service over the lifetime of your system.

For more about the persistent and probably painful pretense of Free Solar, please tune into this week’s Energy Show, or go to ENERGYSHOW.BIZ.

It’s no surprise that this is the most common question, since the solar panels themselves are the biggest cost component of a typical rooftop system.

But I’m not going to give you the single "Best Panel" answer you may be looking for. Sorry.

With over 100 companies making solar panels worldwide — and vast differences in efficiency, aesthetics and reliability — there is no one answer. So instead I’ll focus on the factors and characteristics to help you make the best decision for your particular circumstances.

When I think about my 20+ years of installing rooftop solar panels, I’ve come to the conclusion that highest efficiency, quality features, country of manufacturing, low light performance, annual degradation, rock bottom pricing, proprietary cell technologies, fancy advertising, long warranties and Top Ten lists DON’T REALLY MATTER! You can throw every one of these manufacturer claims and specifications out the window if the solar panel manufacturer goes out of business, or just arbitrarily decides to ignore problems with their product.

What REALLY MATTERS is your confidence in the local installer you choose to install the system. That local installer’s business depends on happy customers for the long term. You can — and probably should -- pepper them with questions. Good installers will do their best to make good on warranties, even when the solar panel manufacturer disappears. So I suggest you trust their objective advice on the best panels for your particular roof space, orientation and budget.

Please listen to this week’s Energy Show for my advice on finding the Best Solar Panels for your rooftop.

As in year’s past, we in California greet the New Year with yet another electric rate increase. It’s almost impossible to believe this time — but on January 1, 2024, PG&E raised electric rates by another 28.4% according to the San Jose Mercury News.

Just follow the money. Since 2017, Utilities and the IBEW spent over $111 million on politicians and ballot measures to maintain their monopoly. So it should be no surprise that our government passed laws that make California’s peak rates the highest in the country.

The Solar Rights Alliance compiled this list of Utility and IBEW Contributions from publicly available data. So you can see for yourself how much your own politicians -- from the Governor on down -- accepted in contributions.

Please listen to this episode of the Energy Show as I connect the dots from these contributions to:

...Anti-solar laws passed by California’s Legislature

...The Governor's appointments of new California Public Utilities Commissioners

...The end of Net Metering

...An array of hostile rooftop solar policies affecting homes and businesses

...Out-of-control utility spending on long distance transmission lines on which utilities get a guaranteed 12% annual profit

...The impact on low- and middle-income residents

...The crash of California’s rooftop solar and storage industry

...The $500+ million budget deficit these job losses will create for California

...And the $500+ million in extra revenue that utilities will rake in from these lost home and business solar installations.

My two recommendations to reduce your electric rates are simple:

1. Vote these politicians out, and

2. Consider installing your own rooftop solar and storage system

To view the list, please go to https://www.energyshow.biz/listaccess

Please forward this Energy Show podcast to any of your friends who are also wondering why their electric rates are so high.

I’ve added electrification predictions for 2024 to my customary set of solar and storage predictions. Electrification incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are already starting to drive demand for heat pumps and electrical upgrades, just as tax credits accelerated the solar and EV markets in the past.

So here I go again sticking my neck out with these ten home energy predictions for 2024:

EVs will be equipped with integrated 240-volt generators for home backup and evening power

Heat pump sales will surge by 25%

Fewer than half of the newly announced clean energy manufacturing plants will be completed

Utilities in other states will follow California’s lead to end Net Metering

Residential solar revenues in California will plunge by 50%

A national-scale solar installation company will file for bankruptcy

Tesla will claw its way into the U.S. inverter business

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) and Vehicle to Grid (V2G) will not gain traction

The residential battery system business will consolidate

It’s Game Over for fossil fuels

For more details on my Home Energy Predictions for 2024, please go to www.EnergyShow.biz.

It’s not a matter of IF your hot water heater dies – but WHEN. According to the Department of Energy, the average lifespan of a hot water heater is 13 years. So if your hot water heater is over ten years old – or if you’re planning to electrify your home -- the time to PLAN for a Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) is NOW.

Heat pump water heaters have become consumer favorites — and the bête noir of natural gas companies – because they have efficiencies in the range of 200-300%. Much more efficient than gas water heaters (70-80%), electric water heaters (99%) and tankless water heaters (70-99%). Plus, there are no dangerous exhaust fumes or methane fuel.

Their big disadvantage is that they are not an easy replacement for a tankless hot water system. This is because customers who have a tankless system almost never have space for a large hot water tank. So if you have a tankless system – whether inside or outside your house – a HPWH is usually not a good option.

There are three reasons why the up-front costs for a new HPWH are usually higher than a simple replacement with a new gas or electric water heater. First, a HPWH is more complicated. Second, most HPWH incentives (except tax credits) require you to bring your existing hot water system up to current building codes. And third, you will need a dedicated 240 volt electric circuit for the most popular HPWH models.

Net-net, it’s a little-known secret that these HPWH upgrade costs often negate the value of tempting IRA and local rebates.

Nevertheless, heat pump water heaters will continue to be the gold standard for water heater replacements. Please tune into this week’s Energy Show to unlock the future of home domestic hot water heating.

The goal to cap global warming to 1.5C is just a pipe dream. At the rate the earth is warming we’ll hit that threshold in 2026 or sooner. And since our consumption of fossil fuels continues to increase without any meaningful reductions of airborne CO2 concentrations, we are on pace to hit 3C by 2035.

It doesn’t take a doctor to diagnose the illness: our planet is sick from global warming. Or to determine the cause of the illness: CO2 emissions. Or the cure: stop burning fossil fuels.

But fossil fuel companies and countries are determined to increase the use of fossil fuels. Oil and gas interests were out in force at COP28, from the President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber — his day job is the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) — down to the 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists in attendance. OPEC instructed its members to oppose any language targeting fossil fuels, and Ahmed Al Jaber stated that there is no science indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed.

The Fox (the metaphor, and maybe the network too) is guarding the hen house. And this fox has stated that he has no plans to stop eating chicken.

Fossil fuel dominance of the global warming agenda will continue as long as the economics of fossil fuels are so favorable. Pumping oil and gas out of the ground is a license to print money, with virtually no downside risks due to the harm that is created.

There are three things we can do to change the lopsided economics of fossil fuels:

- Don’t vote for politicians who support fossil fuels

- Continue efforts to expand customer-sited solar and storage

- Install your own solar and storage system before politicians change the rules

Amid this gloomy news there are a few bright rays of hope. COP28 formalized a pact to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Our best shot is to leverage the superior economics of solar, wind and batteries to quickly phase out the use of fossil fuels.

For a realistic exploration of the realities of COP28, tune into this week’s episode of the Energy Show.

When you electrify your home – with a heat pump HVAC system, EV charger, induction cooktop

or heat pump water heater – your demand for electricity will go up. Duh. Or as Tim Allen would

say: “I need more power.”

Incentives as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) help reduce the upfront costs of these

electrification upgrades. But the only way to reduce the operating costs of these new electrical

appliances is with more solar power on your roof.

But upgrading an old solar system is not for the faint of heart. New solar inverters and panels

are unlikely to be compatible with your existing system. Your utility may restrict the number of

panels you can add. And sometimes your electrical service may require an upgrade to handle

the higher power output from your upgraded solar system.

Keep in mind these three recommendations. First, it is relatively easy to add a battery to an

existing system. Second, seriously consider replacing the entire system if it is over 15 years old.

And third, work with an experienced solar installer who’s familiar with older equipment.

For the nitty gritty details about upgrading your existing solar system, please tune into this

week’s Energy Show.

By 2035 all new cars in California will be electric. It’s an achievable goal based on lower operating costs and rapid price declines for new EVs. But the current per kwh costs of EV charging continue to increase -- and we continue to be woefully short of necessary EV charging infrastructure.

I predict a massive backlash against expensive and inconvenient EV charging. Our EV deployment goals are likely to fail. Miserably.

The reason is simple: our EV charging paradigm is based on utility profit maximization as they take over the corner filling station – NOT lower driver operating costs (cheap and convenient charging) and NOT leveraging the value of these mobile batteries (such as Vehicle to Home charging).

One of the leaders who “thinks different” is Tom McCalmont, CEO of Paired Power. Tom’s product line at Paired Power harnesses local solar power during the day when cars are typically parked at work, shopping malls and other public places. The Paired Power system uses low-cost Level 2 or DC solar charging stations, and avoids expensive and time consuming utility interconnection costs. Both EV owners and manufacturers will benefit.

Tune into this week’s Energy Show for a glimpse of the alternate EV-solar future. Imagine charging your car inexpensively at work during the day, and just driving that massive car battery at home and powering your house. Say goodbye to outrageous peak evening electricity costs and blackouts!

Inside Scoop About Heat Pump HVAC Systems

If you can answer these three basic questions, then don’t bother listening to this podcast. The questions are tricky, so if you're the least bit uncertain I suggest you listen to this week's riveting Energy Show episode.

How can a heat pump be 300% efficient?

Are gas furnaces still the most popular new heating system?

Can you get an $8,000 IRA rebate and $2,000 Federal Tax Credit for a heat pump installation in 2023?

First, we’ll delve into the way a heat pump HVAC system works. In a nutshell, a heat pump is an air conditioner operating in reverse. This heat pump thermodynamic trickery has been improving so much that heat pumps are now standard equipment on most new homes. They also work great in cold climates, unlike the systems I installed in the ‘80s.

Retrofitting a home with a heat pump — which both heats and cools — provides homeowners a great deal of design flexibility. Heat pumps can use existing ductwork, can be installed “ductless" with mini-splits, or a hybrid that combines both. All without a single inch of sticky duct tape. When designed and installed properly, the end result will be an efficient, clean, comfortable and code-compliant heating and cooling system. And affordable. That’s where the IRA comes in.

Ahhh, the Inflation Reduction Act. Without a doubt the biggest federal incentive program for clean energy technologies. But complicated with a blizzard of regulations, requirements and not-quite-ready forms for us to fill out.

Please tune into this week’s Energy show for an answer to the top three Heat Pump HVAC questions, as well as plain English details about the benefits of heat pumps, how they work, and honest answers about available incentives.