The Energy Show

Copyright 2021 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

I’ve been bombarded with customer questions about the change from Net Metering (NEM) 2 to NEM 3. If you haven’t heard, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) is in the process of effectively eliminating Net Metering. If the preliminary decision by the CPUC goes through, the solar industry — including both new and existing solar customers — will be clobbered.

Here is the current situation in a nutshell. The CPUC decided to add a fixed charge of about $60 per month to the average new solar customer’s electric bill, reduce the daytime reimbursement rate from $0.30 to $0.05 per kwh, and reduce the grandfathering period of all customers (even existing customers) from 20 years to 15 years. They call this NEM 3, but new solar customers are better off effectively disconnecting their solar and battery systems from the grid — not net metering at all.

This poorly-reasoned NEM 3 decision is scheduled to go into effect on May 28, 2022. To compare NEM 2 to NEM 3 we ran the numbers with our financial modeling tools. The result is that paybacks for new solar systems go from about 6 years to 14 years, and paybacks for adding a battery go from approximately 9 years to 12 years.

The CPUC, Governor Newsom and state legislators were lobbied very heavily by … wait for it … PG&E, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas and Electric, and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. The solar industry advocated strongly for a more balanced NEM decision, and these lobbying efforts are continuing. Although there is a chance that the CPUC will modify their decision, there is no doubt in my mind that whatever the parameters of NEM 3 become, customers will be better off on the current NEM 2 program.

My advice to anyone interested in solar or battery backup is simple: don’t delay, act right away. Because of the inevitable rush to install solar and storage before May 28,2022, reputable contractors will be overbooked. Moreover, battery, inverter, and solar panel supplies are tight. Since there are already significant battery shortages, I recommend that prospective battery customer confirm that their contractor has equipment in stock.

For more background, numbers and impact on what NEM 3 means for solar and battery customers, please tune in to this week’s Energy Show.

Copyright 2021 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

My wife complained to me last week that it cost $80 to fill up her car (I was oblivious since I drive an EV). But I wasn’t surprised since the price of gas in San Jose is about $5/gallon.

Gas prices are definitely higher than they used to be, but the reality is that prices have been rock stable on an inflation-adjusted basis for over 30 years. In 1978, gas prices were $2.44/gallon compared to $2.24 in 2020. Over the same time period the average gas mileage of a car has gone up from 15 mpg in 1978 to 25 mpg in 2020. Adjusting for inflation and gas mileage, it cost $0.16/mile to drive in 1978 and $0.09/mile in 2020. Even at the U.S. average price of $3.42/gallon, it is still cheaper to drive a car in 2020 than it was in 1978.

Nevertheless, gas station signs advertising $5/gallon gas are jolting. And get this: in May, June and July of 2021 U.S. gas refineries exported record amounts of gasoline! Drilling for more oil in the U.S., releasing petroleum from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or building more refining capacity will not significantly reduce U.S. prices. The simple reason is that if prices are higher overseas, U.S. driller and refiners will simply maximize their profits by shipping their oil and gas to overseas customers.

Rather than groaning about high gas prices, there is one thing you can do to permanently avoid the impact of these future gas price shocks: get an EV and charge from solar. At average California solar electric rates of $0.10/kwh, driving costs are about $0.03 per mile. For more about high gas prices and how you can cope, please tune into to this week’s Energy Show.

Copyright 2021 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

So… regarding global warming, are we doomed? Or are there practical decarbonization paths to limit the impact of global warming?

I am an optimist (otherwise I would not have been in the solar business for over 40 years). There is a clear path to limiting global temperature increases to 2 degrees celsius by 2100. However, the necessary actions to achieve this goal creates “winners and loser,” resulting in political risks — regardless of the underlying social and economic needs.

To be clear, the winners will be various clean energy technologies, including wind, solar, EVs, building electrification and energy storage. The “losers" will be the incumbent fossil fuel industry, as well as their downstream customers. Unfortunately, the incumbent losers have much more lobbying money than the upstart clean energy winners. Fortunately, except for industrial process heat, electricity generated from clean energy sources is cheaper than fossil fuel power generation. But we need to transition to these clean energy sources much faster than we are now.

I have been involved in many formal and informal discussions about the costs, benefits and effects of various global warming solutions. However, it is tricky to see the interactions of these actions when taken considered together. For example, if we put a higher tax on carbon, does that mean that we do not need to incentivize renewables as much? If we are confident that carbon sequestration will become available at scale in 2030, does that mean we can expand our natural gas use? Or, if we plant a trillion trees, do we need a carbon tax? Basically, there are many levers we can use to get to the desired result.

To help provide guidance on the effectiveness of these various global warming solutions, I have been using a simulation tool called EN-ROADS. Please tune in to this week’s Energy Show for an introduction to EN-ROADS. We’ll also discuss my simulation efforts to keep the Earth’s temperature rise under 2 C by 2100 (hint: lots of renewables, electrification, nuclear and a carbon tax).

Copyright 2021 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

Are you worried about blackouts and public safety power shutoffs (PSPS)? Are you sick of getting ripped off by rising electric rates from your local utility? Then you’re one of the millions of homeowners and businesses who are interested in a battery backup system designed to work with your solar system.

It can be confusing to determine which battery and inverter system will be the best for your particular application, whether you are just adding a battery to your existing solar system, or installing a completely new solar and battery system. So this week’s Energy Show is all about selecting the best battery system for your home or business.

Major battery suppliers include LG, Tesla, Enphase, Generac and SolarEdge. However, unlike solar panels, which can be mixed and matched with different inverters, batteries are designed to work only with certain inverter systems — most commonly SolarEdge and Enphase. It’s like cars: you don’t get to pick the manufacturer of the battery that goes in your EV.

In addition to battery system availability (there are shortages of the most popular batteries), we will focus on the following technical criteria of the battery system market leaders:

* Battery capacity in kwh

* Battery power output in kw

* System efficiency

* Existing solar system compatibility

* System price (battery price doesn’t really matter)

* Battery warranty

So if you’ve been wondering what batteries should I buy with my solar system, listen to this week’s Energy Show for a detailed dive into the best and most widely available battery systems for your home or business.

Copyright 2021 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

Sometimes I wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat. Not from a real nightmare, just worrying about external issues affecting the solar and storage industry. We jokingly refer to our industry as the “solar coaster,” characterized by unexpected ups and downs.

The ups are typically expected events -- things for which we can usually plan in advance, such as changes to tax credits and incentives, continued unreliability of the electric grid, and increases in electricity costs.

The things we can’t plan for are the solar coaster downs. These are usually unexpected events, coming at us from left field. Over the past 20 years we have managed through the Y2K non-crisis, the silicon shortage in 2004, the housing crisis and recession in 2007, solar tariffs in 2012, and of course the Covid pandemic in 2020-2021.

My biggest nightmare right now relates to PG&E and other utilities trying to kill rooftop solar and storage so they can continue to sell their overpriced, unreliable and profitable electricity. We’re also navigating through a dire shortage of high quality storage batteries, challenges with maintaining high levels of customer satisfaction, and keeping our employees safe when they work on rooftops.

For my take on the challenges facing solar and storage contractors, please tune in to this week’s Energy Show.

Copyright 221 - Barry Cinnamon, The Energy Show

About 15 years ago the solar and fire protection industries worked together to improve the safety of rooftop solar panels. With the increased popularity of lithium ion batteries for backup power, the solar and fire industries are now focusing on battery safety.

Here’s the issue: anything that stores energy can be dangerous if that energy is released in an uncontrolled way, as in a fire or an explosion. It’s important to consider battery safety in the context of other forms of high density energy storage. Here on earth, uranium has the highest energy density at 80 million mega joules per kg. We call the sudden release of uranium energy an atomic bomb. From a theoretical standpoint, the energy density of antimatter is a thousand times higher than uranium, but so far only on Start Trek have the warp engines experienced an antimatter explosion.

Here on earth, chemicals with high energy densities are much more practical, especially for transportation. Hydrogen has an energy density of 120 mega joules per kg, but is tricky to handle as a compressed gas. Even uncompressed, hydrogen can do some damage (remember the Hindenburg). More practically, for over 100 years almost all cars used gasoline or diesel as a fuel. Gasoline has an energy density of 46 mega joules per kg. You can drive your car for 300 miles on a ten-gallon tank of gas that weighs 65 pounds. But fossil fuels are polluting, and no longer the most cost effective fuel for cars and trucks.

We have abundant and cheap solar and wind energy. But you can’t go far or fast with just a solar panel or windmill on the roof of your car — and 200 mile extension cords are impractical. Storing that solar or wind energy in a battery can give a car the range and performance that many drivers need. Today’s lithium ion batteries have an energy density of about 0.75 mega joules per kg. Powered by a lithium ion battery, a typical electric vehicle can go about 200 miles on a 75 kwh battery pack that weighs about 1000 pounds.

As the cost and performance of lithium ion batteries has improved, they are seeing increased use in homes and business — not only for backup power, but also to avoid sky-high utility costs in the late afternoon and evening. The high energy density of lithium ion batteries has made them ubiquitous in our phones, computers, earpieces and just about anything that needs a rechargeable energy source. Although lithium ion batteries are safer than gasoline, diesel and natural gas, the are still subject to combustion if damaged.

One of the industry’s experts on combustion is retired San Jose Fire Captain Matt Paiss. Matt is currently a technical advisor for battery materials and systems for the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and provides consulting and training services for fire and code officials. Please listen up to this week's Energy Show as Matt shares his experiences and insights on battery system safety.

Copyright 2021 The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

About 15 years ago the solar and fire protection industries worked together to improve the safety of rooftop solar panels. With the increased popularity of lithium ion batteries for backup power, the solar and fire industries are now focusing on battery safety.

Here’s the issue: anything that stores energy can be dangerous if that energy is released in an uncontrolled way, as in a fire or an explosion. It’s important to consider battery safety in the context of other forms of high density energy storage. Here on earth, uranium has the highest energy density at 80 million mega joules per kg. We call the sudden release of uranium energy an atomic bomb. From a theoretical standpoint, the energy density of antimatter is a thousand times higher than uranium, but so far only on Start Trek have the warp engines experienced an antimatter explosion.

Here on earth, chemicals with high energy densities are much more practical, especially for transportation. Hydrogen has an energy density of 120 mega joules per kg, but is tricky to handle as a compressed gas. Even uncompressed, hydrogen can do some damage (remember the Hindenburg). More practically, for over 100 years almost all cars used gasoline or diesel as a fuel. Gasoline has an energy density of 46 mega joules per kg. You can drive your car for 300 miles on a ten-gallon tank of gas that weighs 65 pounds. But fossil fuels are polluting, and no longer the most cost effective fuel for cars and trucks.

We have abundant and cheap solar and wind energy. But you can’t go far or fast with just a solar panel or windmill on the roof of your car — and 200 mile extension cords are impractical. Storing that solar or wind energy in a battery can give a car the range and performance that many drivers need. Today’s lithium ion batteries have an energy density of about 0.75 mega joules per kg. Powered by a lithium ion battery, a typical electric vehicle can go about 200 miles on a 75 kwh battery pack that weighs about 1000 pounds.

As the cost and performance of lithium ion batteries has improved, they are seeing increased use in homes and business — not only for backup power, but also to avoid sky-high utility costs in the late afternoon and evening. The high energy density of lithium ion batteries has made them ubiquitous in our phones, computers, earpieces and just about anything that needs a rechargeable energy source. Although lithium ion batteries are safer than gasoline, diesel and natural gas, the are still subject to combustion if damaged.

One of the industry’s experts on combustion is retired San Jose Fire Captain Matt Paiss. Matt is currently a technical advisor for battery materials and systems for the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and provides support for fire and building departments. Please listen up to this week's Energy Show as Matt shares his experiences and insights on battery system safety.

Copyright 2021 The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

6/30/21 News Story: “PG&E just asked regulators for a $3.6b rate hike to reduce fires from their own power lines”

Another “in your face” profit grab from a utility that blames rooftop solar for high electric rates. This rate increase works out to $36 per month for every homeowner in California! Do they think we’re stupid?

The biggest threat to rooftop solar and storage is not political. It’s not tariffs. Or product shortages. The biggest threat is from aggressive lobbying (which we pay via our electric bills) and outright lies from monopoly utilities.

It’s pretty simple: utilities are trying to prevent businesses and homeowners from installing their own solar and battery systems so they maximize their profits. They lie about rooftop solar and storage. Adding insult to injury, they are also trying to increase fees for customers who already have these systems. It’s an outright, blatant, anti-competitive profit grab that will harm all current and future solar + storage customers — while at the same time increasing monopoly utility profits. And our regulators have historically gone along with these profit grabs.

Utilities invented their Big Lie to convince the public that they are the good guys, only trying to protect ratepayers. BS.

Did your electric rates go up because of rooftop solar? No — they went up because of high transmission costs and ridiculous utility executive salaries.

Are our wildfires caused by rooftop solar? No — the deadliest fires have been caused by inadequate transmission line maintenance.

Will paying utilities more money solve your home and business blackout problems any time soon? No — the fastest and cheapest way for you to get reliable power is with your own backup system.

Check out this short video for a more realistic perspective: We Can’t Trust Them - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9TVsgUvtlI

It is inconceivable to me that the California Public Utilities commission is considering another economic shift from homeowners, schools and businesses to a twice-bankrupt and criminal utility (PG&E) who already has a guaranteed 10% rate of return, who just raised electric rates by 11% this year — and is now asking for another $3.6 billion rate increase.

Specifically, California’s three monopoly utilities want to:

* Add monthly fixed charges to solar customer bills,

* Reduce solar reimbursement rates,

* Eliminate annual net metering, and

* Change net metering grandfathering for existing solar customers.

The only way to stop this utility profit grab is for homeowners and businesses to call out this Big LieL

* Tell Governor Newsom that increasing solar costs is absolutely the wrong way to solving our electricity problems.

* Tell the California Public Utilities Commission that paying PG&E even more money is unfair to all ratepayers.

* Tell them both that we need more local solar and storage, not more expensive long-distance transmission lines that cause wildfires and perpetually high maintenance costs.

Take action now:

* Contact the Solar Rights Alliance at https://solarrights.org

* Contact the California Solar and Storage Association at https://calssa.org

For more about this Utility Lie, please listen up to this week’s Energy Show https://cinnamon.energy/the-energy-show/. We’ll go through the specific changes monopoly utilities want, the falsehoods behind their Big Lie, and steps we all need to take before the utility profit grab goes into effect.

Copyright 2021 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

Copyright 2021 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

This week’s Energy Show was recorded on Earth Day 2021, 51 years after the very first Earth Day in 1970. When Earth Day was established our country was concerned about water and air pollution — not global warming.

There were two environmental disasters that year: a drilling rig leaked millions of gallons of oil off the coast of Santa Barbara, and the Cuyahoga River on the southern shore of Lake Erie started burning as oil and other industrial materials dumped into the river literally burst into flames. There was widespread acknowledgment throughout the country that we should not be polluting our environment for the sake of convenience. Anyone watching TV in 1970 probably remembers the crying Native American in the “Keep America Beautiful” PSA.

Since then we’ve made tremendous progress reducing water, air and toxic waste pollution. While we are still focused on these issues, the bigger issue is global warming. All of the World’s governments — including the U.S. now -- are striving to reduce the warming of the earth to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius. World governments are convening to more aggressively limit CO2 emissions. Notably, the U.S. plans to accelerate our CO2 emission reductions by 50% by 2030.

In spite of these high level government efforts, reversing global warming is a battle that must be fought by committed citizens locally. One of the most notable efforts in California is being led by Menlo Spark. They are an independent non-profit group that has set a goal for the City of Menlo Park to be climate neutral by 2025. Menlo Spark's efforts are proving to be a model for other communities across the State.

My guest on this week’s Energy Show is Dianne Bailey, Executive Director of Menlo Spark. Their focus is on individual and community-based changes such as building electrification, switching from fossil fuel vehicles to EVs, and implementing clean electricity sources such as solar and storage. To learn more about the origins an community activities of Menlo Spark, please tune in to this week’s episode of the The Energy Show.