Demand for solar, storage and electrification is at an all-time high in the U.S. But economic and political uncertainties have clouded up my 2025 crystal ball. Nevertheless, here is what I see going into 2025.

1) No one knows what will happen with IRA tax credits and rebates

2) TPO system demand will increase if residential IRA incentives are reduced.

3) Utilities throughout the U.S. will increasingly exercise their monopoly power to suppress or outright prohibit customer-sited solar and battery systems

4) Electricity demand will increase more slowly than utilities predict

5) Heat pump rebate process was broken even before it started

6) Heat pumps combined with solar will shine in 2025

7) New UL-3741 solar rapid shutdown codes add price pressure to micro-inverter and optimizer component suppliers

8) Battery system shortages will continue in 2025, but newcomers will be hard pressed to meet this demand

9) Battery systems with integrated inverters will become the standard

10) “Grid Defection” will enter the energy system lexicon

For the details on my Ten Solar, Storage and Electrification Predictions for 2025, please check out the Energy Show website at www.energyshow.biz

Did you know the 30% solar tax credit that fueled the industry’s explosive growth was partly funded by a sneaky deal allowing fossil fuel exports—raising gas prices in the process? Or that the long-term stability of these credits helped solar leasing and PPAs thrive?

But there’s a storm brewing. With a potential Trump administration set to revisit the 2017 tax cuts, IRA incentives might be the first casualties. Imagine an immediate 30% hike in solar costs or the loss of your $8,000 heat pump rebate.

For perspective on these potential changes I’ve turned to the smartest person I know about solar tax credit policy: Rhone Resch. As the CEO of SEIA from 2004 to 2016, Rhone led the charge on the first three rounds of tax credits in 2005, 2008 and 2014.

Please listen to this week’s Energy Show at www.energyshow.biz for Rhone’s insights into the future of the IRA incentives, differences between the Section 25 residential credits and Section 48 commercial credits, and advice if you’re on the fence about installing solar and storage (hint: to be safe, get your system installed before 12/31/2025).

Solar panel costs have declined from $5/watt to $0.25/watt over the last 25 years. Due to the scale and risks involved in solar panel manufacturing, “…making solar panels is a horrible business,” according to Jenny Chase with Bloomberg NEF. And the same result is likely to happen with manufacturing the other key new energy technology: batteries.

What’s bad news for solar and battery manufacturers is great news for energy-hungry customers. The core component of a power plant -- regardless of size -- is now a dirt-cheap commodity. Coal, oil and natural gas can’t keep up with PV power cost declines. Even nuclear, geothermal and wind power are challenged because these remotely constructed power plants require outrageously expensive high voltage transmission lines that take over a decade to design and construct.

Our guest on this week’s Energy Show is Neal Dikeman with Energy Transition Ventures. It’s almost impossible to contain Neal's enthusiasm about new business opportunities presented by "almost free" solar and battery power. So please join me as Neal riffs on the changes happening with clean tech investing at www.energyshow.biz.

Utilities are in business to make money. So it’s no surprise that your electric bills will keep going up.

You may not know it, but since 2022 the United States has been energy independent. As a country, we produce more energy (mostly fossil fuels) than we consume. Unfortunately, the benefits of energy independence do not trickle down to homeowners. Fossil fuel companies and utilities keep those profits while consumers keep paying more and more for energy.

Unless your name is Jed Clampett, it is not feasible to drill an oil well in your back yard. But you can do the next best thing: put solar panels on your roof and add a battery backup system. One of the key benefits of rooftop solar and storage is that this energy can also go to fuel your EV, as well as heat and cool your house with a heat pump.

With a properly designed solar and battery system it’s easy to slash your electric bills in half. This level of electricity cost reduction is termed "partial grid defection." And if you have enough roof space you can even get a check back from your utility because you are producing more energy than you consume — basically total grid defection. The same concept works for commercial and industrial customers who install solar and batteries.

Don’t wait for the next big jump in electric rates. Or the next blackout. Listen to this week's electrifying Energy Show episode and celebrate your own Energy Independence Day.

Net metering is history (for now) in California and Hawaii. So almost every homeowner needs batteries with their solar system. But businesses need solar too, and therefore batteries. In fact, because of demand charges on most commercial electric bills, businesses benefit from batteries even more than homes.

But there are almost no reliable, standardized, ready-for-prime-time commercial battery systems that provide the trifecta of energy savings, backup power and demand charge reduction. There is a gaping hole in the battery market between huge customized utility scale battery systems and small “off the shelf” home battery systems. Go figure!

Note that I said “almost.” Fortress Power has a suite of commercial battery storage systems that are ideal for small and medium commercial customers. These systems can time shift energy use, provide solar-connected backup power and reduce peak demand charges.

This week, CEO Jing Yu and Sales Director Alex Lepore join us to discuss how they’re filling in the Energy Storage System gap between residential and utility scale. If you’re wondering how a commercial battery system can benefit your company, please tune into this week’s Energy Show at www.energyshow.biz.

Think it can’t happen to you? Imagine icicles forming in the shower or condensate water seeping through your ceiling—all thanks to an HVAC system that’s begging for attention.

This week, the “House Whisperer” Nate Adams joins us to expose the hidden perils of skipping HVAC maintenance and how a few proactive tweaks can prevent a winter nightmare (and save your bank account from disaster).

• Your Furnace: A Ticking Time Bomb? Why ignoring maintenance is like setting yourself up for a frigid breakdown—just when you need heat the most.

• Heat Pumps Are Taking Over: Nate and Barry dive into why these super-efficient systems are transforming homes, especially for solar-powered setups.

• DIY Maintenance You Can’t Afford to Miss: Learn the easy steps to dodge condensation leaks, clogged filters, and cold-air surprises that make winter miserable.

Want to save on HVAC repairs and avoid a frozen shower? Don’t miss this week’s Energy Show at www.energyshow.biz.

About The Energy Show

Every week Barry hosts The Energy Show, a 30 minute informative talk show that covers a broad variety of energy related topics spanning technology, economics, policy, and politics that are shaping the future of how we generate and consume electricity, along with practical money-saving tips on ways to reduce your home and business energy consumption.

The first challenge with a home electrification project is determining the actual costs, savings and incentives for each step in the project. Once that’s done, the second challenge is navigating the maze of different electrification contractors (solar, batteries, EV chargers, HVAC, HPWH, insulation, etc.)

Due to the magnitude of potential energy savings, solar and battery contractors are often the first in the door when homeowners consider an electrification project. Balto Energy is delivering a suite of software that will help solar contractors model and prioritize a range of electrification measures.

To learn more about Balto Energy and their quest to decarbonize homes across America, please listen up to this week’s Energy Show at www.energyshow.biz as we speak with James Quazi, Founder & CEO of Balto Energy.

Ever wonder how early investors turned a hippy solar energy industry into a $100+ billion worldwide industry? On this week's episode we sit down with Gerard Reid, co-founder of Alexa Capital. Way back in 2005 he was researching PV technologies in Berlin - that’s when he realized that combining the right financing with rapid cost reductions in the solar industry could be the foundation for some terrific investments. And he was right.

Fast forward to 2024 and we are seeing even greater worldwide potential for the combination of solar and storage. Now it is pretty obvious that solar and storage will deliver dirt cheap electricity. The challenge now is to seek out the opportunities that are not constrained by incumbent industries or hostile public policies.

Please tune into this week's Energy Show at www. energyshow.biz to get Gerard’s insights into the actions that early solar and finance companies took to set them up for such a global success story.

Will the future of energy be driven by massive utility solar farms or millions of local rooftop systems? John Farrell from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance shares his insights on how utility monopolies are strangling local solar efforts -- especially in California -- where monopoly utilities are locking customers into sky-high rates.

The conversation delves into the growing trend of “grid defection” as consumers use their own solar and battery systems to reduce their dependence on utility power. With an appropriately sized solar and battery system -- with a little help from a friendly EV -- it is indeed possible to cut the cord with the utility completely. Locations with lots of sunlight and high electric rates will be the first places where people can cost effectively ditch their local utility.

With all due respect to Alice’s Restaurant…could this be the start of a nationwide movement? Please tune into this week’s Energy Show episode at www.energyshow.biz.

Nuclear power will make electricity too cheap to meter,” a prediction made in a 1954 statement from the head of the Atomic Energy Commission. 70 years later I’m predicting that electricity will be almost free, but powered from that fusion generator 93 million miles away. Sounds crazy, but rooftop solar is already generating power for $0.06/kwh — compared to our average rates here in California of $0.45/kwh.

As rooftop solar costs continue to decline and grid electricity costs continue to increase, we need to prepare for three traumatic energy industry changes:

1. Gasoline demand will plummet as EVs dominate road transportation.

2. Natural gas demand will decline steadily as heat pumps dominate space heating and solar dominates power generation.

3. The utility business model will collapse as technological changes (solar and batteries) turn the electric grid upside down.

Please tune into this week’s Energy Show as we dive into the capital costs, operating costs, ownership arrangements and timing for the four most common types of power plants. The results make it clear why utilities are trying so hard to stop the growth of rooftop solar and storage. For the details, please head over to www.energyshow.biz and listen to this week's podcast.