The Energy Show

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

When you fly into just about any city you will see hundreds of white commercial flat rooftops. These rooftops are just begging for solar panels to generate electricity for the building -- and reflect the heat to reduce the air conditioning load. With the 30% investment tax credit and new depreciation rules, the economics are pretty good. Paybacks are often less than five years with immediate positive cash flow for financed systems.

But marketing solar to commercial customers is challenging. Often the building is leased, with utility payments made by the tenant -- not the building owner. Although the installation of commercial rooftop solar is relatively straightforward, the marketing, sales and financing processes can be complex.

When I think of solar marketing I instantly think of Tor Valenza, AKA Solar Fred. He is the guy who has been wearing the hat for over ten years in the solar industry. Tor has build a terrific brand for himself, as well as a number of well known solar clients. Please Listen Up to this week’s Energy Show as Tor walks us through his five step program for commercial solar marketing.

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

To slow the global warming trend, a number of states have committed to the aspirational goal of 100% carbon-free energy. As a species that literally evolved from burning wood and hydrocarbons, how can we possibly run our modern lives and economy without fossil fuels?

We can indeed achieve this transition quickly and economically. First, by converting all power generation to renewable, non-carbon sources. And second, by converting all fossil-fuel burning vehicles and appliances to electricity. Steady progress towards these conversions is being made. For example, 32% of California’s retail power came from renewable energy in 2018. The state is well on the way to converting to 100% renewable electricity. Use of EVs is growing steadily, and new building codes mandate the use of rooftop solar and electric appliances instead of natural gas.

The challenge is with the existing stock of residential and commercial buildings. Homes and businesses predominantly use natural gas for space heating, hot water heating and cooking. That’s where the concept of Whole House Electrification (WHE) come in. WHE is conceptually simple: replace gas appliances with electric appliances. In reality, one needs an energy audit to prioritize these conversions, then hire five different specialty contractors to do the work: insulation, solar, HVAC, plumbing, electrical and pool. It can be a daunting task.

Fortunately there are some pioneers out there - one of whom is my friend Howard Wenger. Howard was also a pioneer in the solar industry, with stints at AstroPower, PowerLight and SunPower. Please listen up to this week’s Energy Show as Howard discusses his experiences as he converted his house to 100% electricity, supplied — naturally -- by solar.

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

In the early days of solar and storage, virtually every system used lead acid batteries to store daytime energy and use this energy at night. Although these systems functioned well, they required a lot of maintenance (you can tell old-time battery installers from the acid burns in their jeans), were quite heavy, had complicated control systems and had limited lifetimes. Net metering alleviated the need for battery storage. But now with changes in net metering, Time of Use (TOU) rates and poor grid reliability, batteries are experiencing a resurgence.

Part of the reason for this battery comeback is that new lithium ion battery storage systems overcome almost all the disadvantages of lead acid systems (they are still somewhat expensive). These systems are designed to be installed next to your solar inverter, have integrated battery management and control systems, and require no maintenance over their guaranteed 10 year lifespans.

Utilities are moving their peak electric rates from mid day to the late afternoon and evening when the sun doesn’t shine. With battery storage, customers can time-shift their energy use -- running their homes and businesses from stored energy in their battery, and replenishing that battery the next day when the sun is shining. Many of these battery systems can also provide backup power during a grid outage — or one of the “Planned Power Outages” that utilities implement to prevent power line-caused fires.

The best news is that many states, including California, provide rebates to reduce the costs of battery storage systems. Please tune in to this week’s Energy Show as Josh Weiner from Sepi Solar joins us to explain the codes and standards that apply to the installation of battery storage systems.

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

The most common questions that prospective solar customers ask is “Which solar panels should I buy?” That’s a tough question to answer, and arguably maybe not the most important question (more about that later).

I initially got into the solar business for altruistic reasons -- save the planet and all that. The planet still needs saving, perhaps more than ever. But I quickly realized that the vast majority of customers were interested in saving money first (the planet could wait). So I am biased towards finding the most cost-effective system for customers. To that end, people want an inexpensive system that is reliable, high efficiency (especially if they have limited roof space), and looks good on their roof.

When it comes to the solar panels themselves (also called solar modules), all solar panels generate the same amount of electricity on a per watt basis. A 300 watt panel from Manufacturer A will generate the same amount of energy as a 300 watt panel from Manufacturer B. 24 panels with a 275 watt output will generate the same amount of energy as 22 panels with a 300 watt output (6,600 watts). Your appliances can’t tell the difference if they are using electrons from a super high efficiency panel or from a less expensive system. Nevertheless, there are clear cut differences among solar panels in terms of efficiency, aesthetics, cost and availability. On the other hand, some of the sales pitch distinctions are subjective, such as brand, quality, durability, and long term energy output.

To learn more about critical decision factors in purchasing solar panels for your home or business, listen to this week’s Energy Show. For those of you who have read to the end of this summary, the most important question to ask is: “which contractor will install the best solar power system for my home or business?”

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

This past winter season has been the rainiest I have ever experienced in California. The good news is that the state is no longer in a drought condition. The bad news is that severe weather is occurring around the country. We are likely to continue on this trend: a polar vortex recently hit the Midwest, heavy snows on the east coast, and even Seattle was devastated with big snow storms. 2018 was the 4th hottest year on record globally. On average, the summers are getting hotter and the winters are not as cold.

But this is a show about energy — particularly solar. Although the output of solar systems can be predicted fairly accurately, weather has the biggest impact on annual energy fluctuations [side note: the biggest monetary fluctuations come from your local utility as they raise electric rates].

Several of our customers were concerned about lower energy output from their solar system in November, December and January. We pointed out that rainy weather — including smoke from wildfires — obscured the sunlight enough to make a noticeable difference in energy output. Even our customers who had battery backup systems contacted us, but for different reasons. Many of them had multiple weather-related blackouts this winter. These customers were delighted that their refrigerators, TVs, lights and heat were all still working even though their power was out.

While one cannot change the weather (unless your name is Dr. Evil), we can prepare for a changing climate. Please listen up to this week’s Energy Show as we discuss how weather impacts solar power system performance.

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

There is a new electricity provider serving customers in the city of San Jose: San Jose Clean Energy (SJCE). Technically they are not a utility since PG&E still provides distribution services: maintaining local wires and transformers, as well as providing billing. SJCE’s electricity is cleaner (almost all from renewables) and slightly cheaper.

Some people wonder why we need another utility or electricity provider. The reason is simple: investor owned utilities (IOUs) like PG&E charge more for electricity than municipally owned utilities. These new electricity providers, called Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) utilities, are managed by the cities and/or counties they serve, operate with low overheads, and buy power from inexpensive wind and solar farms.

The utility industry is going through a massive transformation. Old fashioned coal, nuclear and gas power plants are more expensive than wind and solar. In fact, business and residential customers can install solar on their rooftops for much less than it costs their local utility to delivery power. Prices for battery storage are dropping, making it cost effective for customers to install a battery system both for time-shifting energy use as well as backup power. As a result of these “behind the meter” electricity technologies, the economics of centrally generated power sold by an investor-owned utility no longer make sense in many locations.

In addition to San Jose Clean Energy, Northern California is already served by CCAs in Marin (Marin Clean Energy), San Mateo (Peninsula Clean Energy), Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley Clean Energy), with about a dozen more CCAs in operation or in formation. To learn more about CCAs and how they are taking off in communities across the U.S., listen up to this week’s Energy Show.

Copyright 2019, The Energy Show - Barry Cinnamon

This week’s Energy Show is about the Green New Deal. Candidly, I’m all for the “green” parts, and not so enthusiastic about some of the “new deal” parts. The Green New Deal, formally called House Resolution 109 — 14 pages in all — is definitely a conversation starter. I sincerely hope that it gets our country re-focused on clean energy and good paying jobs for the 21st century.

Basically, the Green New Deal is a set of proposed economic stimulus programs in the United States with a goal of addressing climate change and economic inequality. The “Green" part refers to proposals to reduce the impact of climate change. It deals primarily with renewable energy, energy efficiency, and technologies that reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. I’ve been working in the solar and the energy efficiency industries since 1977, so I believe that an “all of the above” approach gives us the best chance to avert the most negative effects of global warming.

For those of us who coasted through U.S. history in high school, the “new deal" part refers to a set of social policies, economic reforms and public works projects. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt pushed through the New Deal in response to the Great Depression. The Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), the Civil Works Administration and the Social Security Administration are all legacies of the New Deal — and these policies created jobs for people who needed work. If you go camping in national parks, you may still see log cabins bearing the CCC logo.

Fast forward to 2007 when journalist and author Thomas Friedman coined the term "The Green New Deal.” The concept bounced around and evolved for a dozen years until Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Ed Markey released the Green New Deal resolution on February 7, 2019. Please Listen Up to this week’s Energy Show as we discuss both the energy and socioeconomic objectives of the Green New Deal.

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

The yield curve for certain types of debt is inverted, suggesting that there may be a recession on the horizon. Economists are worried, and their fears trickle down to mortals like us.

BTW, the yield curve plots the interest rate on the vertical axis and term of the debt on the horizontal axis. Normally, long term interest rates are slightly higher than short term rates because, as Yogi Berra said, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” In other words, uncertainty about the future implies higher interest rates. But when the yield curve slopes downwards in the future, that implies that rates in the future will be lowered to counter a nearer-term recession.

So there is a lot of volatility in the stock market…not only due to interest rates, but also related to uncertainty about trade, an upcoming presidential election, and the overall state of our economy. Many of our listeners to The Energy Show invest in what they know the best: energy -- including solar, EVs, wind and fossil fuels. So if you are investing in the energy industry, or just depending on it for your career, what are our prospects?

My guest on this week’s Energy Show is Shawn Kravetz, President of Esplanade Capital, LLC. Shawn and I have crossed paths many times, going back to at Akeena and Westinghouse Solar. His firm is based in Boston, and manages capital for families, private investors and institutions with a focus on superior long-term capital appreciation, especially in the energy industry. Please Listen Up to this week’s Energy Show for Shawn’s insights into energy investments and our overall economy.

Copyright 2019 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

I’m a solar guy, so a lot of The Energy Show’s content is about solar and energy related issues. This week’s show is about solar, but focuses on a health issue important to everyone in the solar industry: new research about the NET health effects of sun exposure. This show is particularly timely since it looks like the rains here in northern California are finally slowing down -- after the wettest winter in recent memory.

I’ve always wondered why sun exposure could be bad for us, since humans evolved in the sun -- well before we figured out how to make hats or Armani suits. We hunted and farmed, probably half naked at the time, as our bodies evolved ways to adjust to almost constant sun exposure. It’s only been over the last few hundred years that we spend most of our lives indoors, out of the sun. And over the last 50 years or so manufacturers of sunscreen have convinced us to use their products to save us from the deadly effects of the sun’s rays.

Recent research on vitamin D and sun exposure has shown that lathering on the sunscreen to prevent sunburn may not be the best thing for your health. Instead, low levels of vitamin D indicate low sun exposure, and may be connected to increasing levels of high blood pressure, heart disease and stroke. The frequency of these diseases increases the farther one is from the equator and occur more often in the winter months. Some sun exposure is good, as my grandfather said when he put me under a sun lamp.

A Swedish study tracked the sunbathing habits of 30,000 women over 20 years. These sun worshippers had lower levels of blood clots and diabetes, and indeed had higher rates of melanoma…but they were eight times less likely to die from melanoma compared to the sun avoiders. Overall, sun avoiders were twice as likely to die over 20 years than the sun worshippers. It may be that most of us need sunscreen if we only occasionally go into intense sunlight, such as a week long vacation at the beach after six months toiling away in an office cubicle.

I’m obviously not a doctor or an epidemiologist, so do your own research. To learn about the latest solar exposure research, listen up to this week’s Energy Show as we talk about the research and impact of sunscreen on modern day humans.

Copyright 2018 - The Energy Show, Barry Cinnamon

Energy is so important to our civilization that, going back to the invention of fire, there continues to be an abundance of great ideas. Unfortunately, along the way there are also ideas that simply don’t make sense -- such as perpetual motion machines and concepts that violate the laws of thermodynamics. We also have dumb ideas that attempt to bring back old ways of doing things. One that really stands out is the current initiative for rolling back Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, better known as CAFE.

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, “…the current CAFE standards that were put in place several years ago and are in the process of being implemented now will save consumers $140 billion dollars by 2030. With the fuel economies established by these standards, car owner would save over $8,000 on a new vehicle in fuel savings, even after paying a little bit more for the fuel efficient technology.”

In a nutshell, the car costs a little bit more but you save a lot more on gasoline. Cars use 25% of the world’s oil, and for the first time in more than 40 years, the largest source of greenhouse gas pollution in the U.S. isn’t electricity production (thank wind and solar for that improvement), it is transportation: trains, planes and automobiles.

Automakers have made tremendous progress in improving vehicle efficiency -- spurred on by CAFÉ standards. That five liter engine in my 70s era car got maybe 15 mpg and cranked out about 150 horsepower. Now one can get 40 mpg and 150 horsepower out of a fairly commonplace two liter engine. With continued CAFÉ standards in place, we can expect lighter, more efficient, and more aerodynamic vehicles – as well as those that use new battery and driverless technologies.

To learn more about the efforts for rolling back fuel economy standards -- as well as understanding who is behind these retro initiatives -- Listen to this week’s Energy Show.