The Expert Factor

Rachel Reeves has accused the previous government of leaving a £22 billion shortfall in public finances. But do the chancellor’s sums add up or was this all about the politics?

Anand, Hannah and Paul examine what could be a defining moment for this government, explore what Reeves is trying to do, and try to make sense of some of the decisions - like scrapping road and hospital building projects, restricting winter fuel payments, and cancelling the imposition of a cap on social care charges – that she made this week. 

So what actually is the state of the public finances? Did Labour really not know how bad things were? What does this mean for the Civil Service and, whisper it, independent experts? And with a Budget now inked in for October, what should we be looking out for – and how tough are the decisions now facing the chancellor? 

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THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come.

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The general election was less than a month ago, but Keir Starmer has already had to deal with an assassination attempt in the United States, a NATO summit, and hosting the European Political Community at Blenheim. And there are more challenges ahead. The US election. The question of how to deal with China. And, of course, Gaza and Ukraine will continue to dominate the headlines.

So how clear a plan does Labour have? How might it approach these and other challenges? And to what extent does David Lammy’s doctrine of ‘progressive realism’ provide a useful guide? 

Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, joins Anand and Hannah for a fascinating tour of the government’s global priorities, opportunities and potential risks. Produced by Milo Hynes 

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THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come.

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Within days of winning the general election, Keir Starmer has had to respond to what is undoubtedly a crisis – perhaps even an emergency – in prisons across England and Wales. 

The equation is a simple one. Too many prisoners, not enough prison places. More prisons are being planned. But even this won’t keep track of the expected rise in prisoner numbers.

So how on earth was this allowed to happen? Who is to blame?And has the Labour government come up with a sensible plan to fix the problem – or just a short term sticking plaster?

Ken Macdonald, crossbench peer, former Director of Public Prosecutions and president of the Howard League for Penal Reform, joins Anand and Hannah to examine one of the biggest headaches facing the new government. Produced by Milo Hynes.

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THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come.

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It’s not even a week since the British electorate voted to hand power back to Labour. Keir Starmer now leads a government with a huge majority. Rishi Sunak is still – just – leading a massively reduced Conservative opposition. The Liberal Democrats have reclaimed their status as Parliament’s third largest party. The SNP had a terrible night. Reform have established a foothold in Westminster too.

British politics has been turned on its head. So what does it mean for how this country is governed? Is this a significant shift or a short term protest? What do Keir Starmer’s first appointments tell us about what he wants from his ministers? What actually happens next in Parliament? And just how hard will it be for Labour to achieve its arms and policy priorities?

Plus: The elections in France: what just happened and what happens next?

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THE EXPERT FACTOR: Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come.

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Whoever wins the general election – and right now it looks set to be Labour – is going to inherit a particularly stacked and complicated in-tray. And most complicated of all might just be housing.

It’s a problem that so many people are facing – and it’s a problem that successive governments have completely failed to solve. There aren’t enough houses. There aren’t enough houses being built. Houses are too expensive to buy. In some places they are too expensive to rent. 

So what is the solution? Hannah and Paul are joined by special guest Toby Lloyd, a housing policy expert and former No10 adviser, to make sense of what has gone wrong – and what could be done to fix it.

PLUS: Just how bad are these gambling headlines for the government?

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Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, explore and explain the big questions and policy challenges that will be faced by the Labour government, dominate debate in Westminster and beyond, and shape the political landscape for years to come.

Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters

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It’s the Holy Grail. The answer to all our problems. The key to, well pretty much anything the next government wants to – and can – achieve. Rishi Sunak made it one of his five pledges. Keir Starmer placed it front and centre of Labour’s manifesto. But does anyone really know how to deliver economic growth?

With Paul on his holidays, The Expert Factor is joined by IfG chief economist Gemma Tetlow for a closer look at the questions that could define the next government – and the future of our public services. What levers can governments pull to make growth happen? Is for politicians to build their promises on the prospects of future growth? And what does growth really mean in the real world for you or me?

Plus: How big a deal is the Conservative/Reform crossover poll?

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THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes

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Promises not to raise tax are a feature of every general election campaign, and this year is no different. But what are Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer really saying about tax – and what does it mean for what the government can spend on struggling public services?

Which taxes could still rise? What taxes need reform – and how can government go about it? And what does the public really think about tax? Anand, Paul and Hannah crunch the numbers  and tell you what the tax rows are all about.

Plus: Rise of the Right... what just happened at the European Parliament elections?

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THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes

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How do parties decide who gets to stand to be an MP? And are they doing it right? So far this general election has been whirlwind of surprises and unexpected recrimination. Keir Starmer has been accused of purging the Labour Left to install friendly faces in plum seats. And the Conservatives had to search frantically for new candidates to replace record numbers of their MPs who’ve decided to stand down.

What does it take to get on the ballot paper? And how do the parties’ choices shape their future in power (or opposition)? Special guest Isabel Hardman – assistant editor of The Spectator and author Why We Get The Wrong Politicians – guides our panel the murky world of candidate selection.

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THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Robin Leeburn for Podmasters

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It is a week since a rain-soaked Rishi Sunak called a general election. So what on earth is going on? Does Rishi Sunak’s surprise decision make any more sense? Is the idea of national service going to win back the younger voters? Do the claims and counter-claims about tax add up? And will anyone talk about Brexit over the next six weeks? For impartial, insightful and, yes, expert analysis and insight, there is no better podcast to turn to than the Expert Factor.

From now until the July 4th polling day, Hannah, Paul and Anand are going to dig into the big policy announcements, pick apart the manifestos, crunch the numbers, analyse the promises and pledges, and explain what this general election is all about – and what it means for government, for the public finances, for politics and for you.

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THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. Produced by Milo Hynes

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Hillsborough. Bloody Sunday. Grenfell. Scott. Leveson. Chilcott.

And just this week, infected blood, the Post Office and Covid.

Public inquiries can make headlines. They can alter the course of political careers. They can bring closure. They can shape all our lives.

So in the week that the contaminated blood inquiry’s final report was published, Emma Norris, the IfG’s deputy director and resident public inquiries expert, joins Anand and Paul

to examine what makes a successful public inquiry - and what makes an unsuccessful one. Should politicians resist them or welcome them? How much do they really cost - and does that matter? And how can they make a difference?  

THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come. 

Produced by Milo Hynes

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