By Bruce Pardy at Brownstone dot org.

Last week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced a referendum for October 19. It will ask Albertans a slate of policy and constitutional questions. Independence, she said the next day, will be added to the ballot if the requisite number of signatures is met in the petition drive, which is likely. Albertans will get their chance to say if they want to leave Canada. But Canadian federalists can relax. The Alberta premier is one of them. The referendum is the fix to defeat Alberta independence. It will undermine the separatist cause and split the independence vote.

Smith's referendum will ask whether the province should exercise more control over immigration, social programs, and voter identification. And whether Alberta should pursue constitutional amendments. Give provinces the power to appoint judges to superior courts? Abolish the unelected Senate? Grant provinces the right to opt out of federal programs in areas of provincial jurisdiction without losing federal funding? Give provincial laws priority over federal ones when they conflict?

These referendum questions lead nowhere. Alberta already has constitutional authority over the policy questions. It could exercise more control in these areas tomorrow if it wanted. There is no realistic prospect of amending the Canadian constitution on controversial matters. Smith and her advisors must know that.

Smith has repeatedly said that her mandate is a sovereign Alberta inside a united Canada. But many of her fellow Albertans are fed up. They perceive that their province has long received a raw deal in Confederation. They tire of Ottawa throwing obstacles in the way of their primary industries. They resent having their wealth taxed and sent elsewhere around the country. A growing number of Albertans are determined to leave Canada. Recent polls peg it at about one in three.

But even among restless Albertans, there's a moderate middle. They are unhappy with the status quo but have not yet resolved to ditch the country. Smith's referendum will give them a third way. Choose constitutional and policy reforms to create a fairer deal.

It's a chimera, of course. In 2021, 62 percent of Albertans voted in favor of removing equalization from the constitution. "Equalization" means that the federal government will collect more taxes from wealthy provinces and spend it on poorer ones. Alberta is Canada's wealthiest province per capita, and the main source of equalization funds. Its equalization referendum produced no change. The rest of the country ignored it. Alberta will not get more constitutional powers, whatever the voters say about Smith's referendum questions. No constitutional amendments are coming. But many voters will not realize that when they mark their ballots.

Smith's referendum will undermine the prospect for independence in another way too. An independence referendum requires a "clear question." That's what the Supreme Court of Canada said in its 1998 reference case about Quebec. It makes sense. Voters should understand, beyond a shadow of doubt, what they are voting on and what is at stake. But the Court did not say exactly what a "clear question" consists of.

The proposed independence question is clear. "Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?" But a clear question becomes muddy when combined with other questions. If voters support independence but also other constitutional changes, what do they mean? Which should be pursued first? Which is the last resort? What if voters support independence but also support Alberta having the right to opt out of federal programs while retaining federal funding? Both of those things cannot happen. One requires that Alberta be a province, and the other requires that it not be. Any referendum result that requires interpretation is not clear.

The federal Clarity Act legislatures the requirement for a clear question, but it does not give...