The polls are close enough that this election could go either way. But whatever happens, the focus groups over the last year-plus have given some clues about what's motivating the swing voters voting for Trump, and those voting for Harris. Atlantic senior editor Ron Brownstein joins Sarah to listen to voters and what the Trump and Harris coalitions might look like.

By Ron Brownstein:

The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less

The Improbable Coalition That Is Harris’s Best Hope

There's one thing Republican and Democratic strategists all agree on right now: no state is more likely to decide this election than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania-based POLITICO reporter Holly Otterbein joins Sarah to break down Pennsylvania's shift to the right in recent years, and why Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is finding himself in a surprisingly close race.

Spotlight PA: Democrats in Pa. approach 2024 election with slimmest voter registration advantage in decades

By Holly Otterbein: 

Harris ramps up her appeals to Republican voters in the Philly suburbs

‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing

Dems see warning signs for Harris with Latino men in Pennsylvania

Donald Trump may well win both Arizona and Nevada, but Republican Senate candidates there are on the struggle bus. Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent joins to break down Sarah's recent focus groups with PBS in Nevada, and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez of the Washington Post discusses Arizona's abortion rights referendum and Kari Lake's comeback attempt in the U.S. Senate race.

Michigan and Wisconsin aren't just presidential battlegrounds; their Senate races are getting more competitive down the stretch. So how are swing voters thinking about their options?

Craig Gilbert, former DC bureau chief for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and Craig Mauger, political reporter for the Detroit News, join Sarah to break down the electoral landscape in the upper midwest.

By Craig Gilbert: What polling tells us about Wisconsin's undecided voters

The Bulwark's Swing State Swing

The pundit class thought JD Vance performed better than Tim Walz in the vice presidential debate. Voters thought Vance was a good performer, but they couldn't quite shake their skepticism. Puck News's John Heilemann joins Sarah to review voters' reactions to the VP debate and the history of VP picks more broadly.

Some of today's first-time voters were 10 years old when Donald Trump launched his first presidential campaign, so he's all they've known in politics. That's certainly affected how they look at politics, across the political spectrum. Puck's Peter Hamby joins Sarah to discuss the youth vote in the home stretch of the 2024 election.

September 2024 Harvard Youth Poll

By Peter:

The Left’s Trumpnesia Problem

Kamala’s Generation Gap

The Swift-Rogan Election

Sarah recently sat down with Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger on their podcast Possible to talk about the future of politics, the origins of her focus group work, and how artificial intelligence might impact that work.

https://possible.fm/podcast

We're taking a break from the presidential race this week. The battle for control of the Senate is running through red states, with former Trump voters. Some of them are more persuadable than others. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report joins Sarah to discuss the Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Texas, and the role of abortion politics in this year's Senate races.

 Kamala Harris crushed Donald Trump in this week's debate...and swing voters noticed. CNN's Dana Bash joins Sarah to discuss her new book, this week's debate, her experience as the co-moderator of the June 27 debate, and the role of moderator fact-checking in both debates.

By Dana Bash and David Fisher:

America's Deadliest Election: The Cautionary Tale of the Most Violent Election in American History

Kamala Harris's campaign has created a month of immaculate vibes, but plenty of voters are still skeptical. Semafor Washington bureau chief Benjy Sarlin joins Sarah to discuss the state of the race going into the second debate, and Harris's standing with skeptical former Biden voters.

Adam Carlson's Crosstab Aggregator

Relevant past episodes:

With black voters:

March 2024, with Ashley Allison

July 2024, with Audie Cornish

With hispanic voters:

October 2023, with Ruy Teixeira

June 2024, with Amy Walter