The Global Gambit

In late-July 2023, the country of Niger - a critical Western ally in Africa, and against the threats of Islamic Jihadism, experienced its 7th coup since WWII. The democratically elected President Bazoum was ousted, and there have been many claiming the role of Wagner/Russia or that this is positive for greater independence, autonomy from former colonial masters, France.

But its not that clear cut, and Vanda Felbab-Brown of Brookings Institute, emphasises that while there is some support for Russia, its definitely not that high; while the hatred of ECOWAS, the regional body that could lead a military intervention to reinstate Bazoum is not as high either.

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Over 2023 there has be an intensified number of clashes and tensions occurring within an area already heightened and swamped in tension: Serbia & Kosovo. Most notably, these led to rare and unsettling clashes between Serbia communities and members of KFOR - the NATO mission stationed to help address and ideally, prevent, these very scenarios.

So what happened, and why? What about these clashes made them worse and why was NATO directly involved? Why were Western capitals critical of Kosovo over these events when they're usually defensive? How does this all impact Ukraine and Russian interests?

These themes were put to Ivana Stradner, research fellow at Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD). During this live talk, we also joined by Colonel (R) Jeffrey Fischer and former diplomatic defence official to Kosovo.

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France has always been more strategically independent relative to other European such as the UK. But Macron's trip to China while important for French and European interests, caused a stir after he commented about the need for Europe to be more autonomous. Some, like Poland, took it as a snub to the US and transatlantic relations, while many other EU nations tacitly agreed.

But which is right? What did Macron mean and where does he stand? I put these questions to Tara Varma, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institutions, Center on the United States and Europe, and French expert. Prior to that, she was senior fellow and the head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

FOLLOW Tara: https://twitter.com/tara_varma?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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Its hard to overstate the importance of Turkey's election on May 14th. And as Gonul Tol, Founding Director of the Turkey Program at  @MiddleEastInstitute , makes clear, its more than just about policies. It is about the very identity of Turkey; and whether it remains on the path towards democracy or authoritarianism.

In this Part 1, of a mini-series, Gonul joined  @theglobalgambit  for a preview to the election, Erdogan's resilience, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu & the main opposition, and more! Stay tuned for Part 2 on foreign policy implications.

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Profile: https://www.mei.edu/profile/gonul-tol

Twitter: https://twitter.com/gonultol

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Context

Ukraine continues to fight for not merely for its sovereignty and freedom, but arguably and in the eyes of some, values of many democratic, more specifically Western, values.

While not everyone views the war as a case of David vs Goliath, with some believing it to be a typical proxy war, my guest this episode, Benjamin Tallis, certainly isn't one of them.

Indeed, Benjamin is a firm advocate for the concept and academic theory: Neo-Idealism. He believes it to be a new approach to Grand Strategy & International Relations' emerging from the Ukraine-Russo War.

To make more sense of it, l sat down with Benjamin to outline more about this exciting concept alongside his book: To Ukraine With Love.

Follow Benjamin on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bctallis.

*NOTE: This conversation was part of a broader one on Twitter Spaces, including a Q/A which last 45 mins more. To access that, and more exclusive content, consider becoming a Patreon for only $2: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit. 

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Context

 The globe is experiencing even more instability, unpredictability and more - even more than ever, as we arguably enter a multipolar world, with alternative forms of currency, balance of power and so on. 

Could the BRICS countries really create an alternative financial system to challenge or undermine the US-led order? 

I put this question, and others such as the potential of cryptocurrency to Frank Giustra, co-chair of Crisis Group and founder of Fiore Group in this broad conversation. 

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💥Global Gambit has a YOUTUBE!💥

If you find value you in the podcast, check out the new GG channel. You can join an ever-growing community and find YouTube-only content. I'd love to see you there!

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Context
Between Jan 28th-Feb 4th 2023, the world and especially the US were captivated by a UAP - unidentified ariel phenomenon. Turning out to be a Chinese spy or surveillance balloon, it rose many questions, including one around US-China relations in space - known as astropolitics.

Conveniently, the timely and insightful report, China and Strategic Instability in Space, was just released and l spoke with its authors: 
Carla Freeman: senior expert on China at USIP & former director of SAIS's FPI.
Bruce MacDonald: expert on nuclear proliferation, military space and cyber, teaching at SAIS and lifetime member of CFR.

Read the report here: https://www.usip.org/events/china-and-strategic-instability-space. In partnership with Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute. 

There were also audience questions that didn't make the final cut. You can find those available on Patreon when you sign up for as little as $2. 

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This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

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So be sure to SUBSCRIBE for free and additional content not shared on the podcast!

Subscribing really helps supports my work and seriously helps my content to be discovered by more people.

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Episode Outline

More than ever, the UN has a lot on its plate in 2023. Top of this remains Ukraine and is what largely will define its agenda according to my guest, Richard Gowan. But we also discussed others questions including:

1. Is the UN capable of doing more?
2. Is it time for the Security Council to be modernised and if so how?
3. Has Sec Gen Antonio Guterres be an effective leader?
4. Why should we remain optimistic about the UN in 2023?

There were some additional questions from the audience that didn't make the final cut. Find those available on Patreon. 

Guest Profile

Richard Gowan oversees Crisis Group’s advocacy work at the United Nations, liaising with diplomats and UN officials in New York. He has also worked as a consultant for the UN Department of Political Affairs, the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on International Migration and more. 

Considering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)

This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

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The Global Gambit has a YouTube!

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Episode Outline

In Jan 2023, the three leaders of North America met for the North American Summit. This year, with Ukraine, Chinese decoupling and reopening, covid-remnants, this years could be even more significant. To make sense of it l turned to Amb. Juan-Jose Gomez Camacho to cover:

1. What is NALS and why's it matter?
2. How much are current events influencing regional priorities?
3. Did the capture of El Chapo's son play in Mexico's thinking?
4. How do Canadian-Mexican relations play vis-a-vis the US?
5. What should we make of this growing 'near-shoring' or 'friend-shoring'?

We also had a few audience questions, some that dived deeper in Mexican affairs and also the Ambassador's thoughts on LATAM given Peru.

Find those available on Patreon. 

Guest Profile

Amb. Juan Jose Gomez Camacho is a veteran diplomat, serving most recently as Ambassador of Mexico to Canada and 30+ years of a career! He has also served as Ambassador to Singapore, Myanmar and Brunei, as well as the EU, Luxembourg, and the United Nations as Mexico's Permanent Representative. 

This talk happened in the collaboration from Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI).

Don't forget you can sign up to my Substack too where l share my reflections about my talk with my guests, including the Amb!

Considering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)

This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

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And if you're unable able to do that - no worries. Please leave a review, or share GG. This small action has BIG impact in helping it grow and broaden its visibility to more audiences.

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Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin

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TGG has a Substack!

In Dec, l started a Substack where l share reflections on interviews, produce explainers to emerging events, and write opinion pieces.

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Episode Outline

In the fall of 2022, l held a panel on the unprecedented role Open-Source-Intelligence (OSINT) has had on the Ukraine War. It is has hard to believe what the state of the conflict would be without social media communities that have emerged over time. Therefore, it is also hard to overstate how influential it has been in changing fortunes on across Ukraine. Yet, they have been surprisingly underrepresented in the media, despite, referenced by outlets, and often being quicker to provide updates than the mainstream media.

OSINT focuses on legally gathering information from free tools or resources, usually public sources about an individual or organization. In practice, that tends to mean information found on the internet, with examples being geolocation, satellite imagery or documentation. I spoke with 3 accounts on Twitter, who were some of the first to begin tracking and sharing details about developments in the Ukraine War.

Guest Profile

Spook: Began their account in November 2021 to follow the Russian build up on Ukraine's border and began posting various updates, especially concerning graphic content.

The Intel Hub: Despite already a full-time analyst, this account began focused on the war looking at imagery, footage, and materials, focusing on OSINT, aggregation and analysis.

OSINTdefender: Acted as a OSINT monitor with an emphasis on Eastern Europe and increasingly the Central Asian / Eurasian regions. Holds a background in geospatial analysis.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from this  interview, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

Considering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)

This isn't possible without you - the listener. My goal is to bring entertaining yet enlightening content to you, make complex, technical issues more relatable to you, and enable you to engage on topics you care about and for better people from all origins or professions.

So, if any of those resonate with you, consider chipping to the GG, as allows me to improve its quality and elevate the experience for you.

And if you're unable able to do that - no worries. Please leave a review, or share GG. This small action has BIG impact in helping it grow and broaden its visibility to more audiences.

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• TGG Twitter: https://twitter.com/theglobalgambit
• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
• Substack: https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com/

Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin

• X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PKurzin
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg/

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Leave a quick rating—it's free, easy, and honestly, the least you can do after I've blessed your ears with such wisdom. Where would you be without me?

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