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◆ Gilts rocked on macro fears but sterling bond issuance booms 
◆ Just how much of a basket case is the UK anyway? 
◆ Debt-for-nature swaps blossom

This has lead to references in the press to the 2022 Gilt crisis, which the Conservative government caused with its notorious mini-budget of tax cuts to be fuelled through Gilt issuance. There have even been comparisons with 1976 when the UK took a loan from the IMF. We find out whether such comparisons are warranted.

In any case, what's bad for UK taxpayers appears to be fantastic for issuers and investors in the sterling bond market with record volumes of issuance being priced this week. We explain what is driving the market if the economic picture is really as bad as it is being painted to be.

We also take a look at the rise of the deb-for-nature swap — a financial package that allows distressed sovereigns to restructure debt and put money towards environmental causes.

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◆ The sheep and the goats in UK water 
◆ How EM loses assets but gains deals 
◆ US corporates lean to euro bonds

Investment bankers feel like they're on the verge of something good: a boom year in 2025 of mergers and acquisitions, by both corporate and private equity firms, and all the debt and equity financing that goes with it.

The US will be front and centre, all agree, as even the prospect of Donald Trump's presidency is quickening the nerves with hopes of deregulation and M&A being waved through without questions.

Even Trump's harsher moves like tariffs could stimulate deals as companies try to position themselves better.

It's a shoo-in that the US investment banks will do well in this climate, but which of the European banks are chasing them hardest, and managing to outrun their peers? We highlight the winners of 2024 and next year's contenders.

Also this week, Ofwat, the UK water regulator, produced its much-anticipated final determination of the financial parameters for water companies for the next five years. We explore what it does for the sector, especially its sickest member, Thames Water.

And the US Federal Reserve made a "hawkish cut" of interest rates this week. That is crushing the hopes of emerging market bond investors, which have been longing for three years for a strong rate cutting cycle to give them some money inflows at last.

But it could be good news for bond bankers in London, as US companies may turn to the euro and sterling markets for funding next year.

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◆ How to fund Europe 
◆ What market experts think is going to happen next 
◆ The EU to embark on biggest six-month funding spree

The European Union shapes up poorly compared to its rivals when it comes to growth and competitiveness. Former ECB president and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi believes the bloc needs €800bn of investment a year, but how to raise it? We reveal all.

That story is just one in our Review 2024 | Outlook 2025 special report. If you register by clicking through to this page, you will not only receive a free printed edition of the report but also 14 days of free access to GlobalCapital.

We also discuss what the most senior debt capital markets bankers think is going to happen in the year ahead, and where they see the threats and opportunities for their business. Clue: good news for those either looking to start out, or who have newly arrived in, their capital markets careers.

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◆ French government collapse scrambles bond market 
◆ What next for French corporate, FIG, covered bond and public sector bond issuers? 
◆ ECB Trials on distributed ledger technology: the verdict

The long-running saga of the peril of the French public purse took a new twist this week as the country's government collapsed over budget wrangling. 

That turned the traditional order of relative value between French bond issuers on its head — corporates, including luxury good firm LVMH, now trade tighter than the sovereign.

We look into what comes next for French issuers from the sovereign and public sector agencies, to the country's banks and investment grade companies. Do investors really believe they are more likely to be paid back by LVMH than by the state?

We also revisit the recently concluded ECB Trials of distributed ledger technology in the bond market to see what progress was made and whether capital markets are any closer to going digital.

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◆ French bond issuers' tough time ahead as PM fights to get budget through 
◆ Trump tough talk on tariffs' threat to emerging markets
◆ Investors give IPO sellers the silent treatment

There are barneys - quarrels to those unfamiliar with British slang - breaking out all over the place and capital markets are caught in the crossfire.

In France, prime minister Michel Barnier has a fight on his hands to get his budget passed. It could cost him his job. Meanwhile, French government bond yields are soaring alongside the country's deficit.

We look at the dilemma that poses for French issuers in the public sector and covered bond markets through the prism of a deal from one of them this week.

Where there's Trump, there's trouble. The US president-elect is threatening tariffs. This could spell disaster for emerging market issuers but, as we discover, panic is yet to set in. We explain why.

Our final fight is in the equity capital markets where investors are giving sellers no clues as to their interest in new listings. That makes every deal more risky. We investigate how to break the impasse.

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◆ The challenge for SSA issuers next year 
◆ German banks and the commercial property millstone 
◆ Hybrid hot streak explained

SSA bonds in euros have widened against swaps by quite some way in recent months. That will present a big challenge for the asset class's smaller issuers next year. We explain how the market will find a new clearing level.

German banks - two in particular - have suffered from investor fears over exposure to commercial property. Those fears have abated over 2024 but this week there was a deal that suggested a mild degree of terror lingers. We investigate.

Finally, there has been a spate of corporate hybrid debt issuance lately. We find out why and whether there is more to come.

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◆ Donald Trump’s threat to ESG finance in the US 
◆ Why ‘woke capitalism’ won’t be put to bed 
◆ UK auto ABS faces up to compensation crisis

One of the biggest areas of conflict in US politics over the next four years — and indeed, over the past four — will be over environmental, social and governance matters. Donal Trump’s administration will likely be no fan of what its supporters sometimes call “woke capitalism”.

But whether this spells disaster for environment and for ESG capital markets remains to be seen. Although the Republicans have a firm grip on the federal government, a deep dive into ESG in the US reveals that they are unlikely to be able to have everything their own way.

Meanwhile, a ruling that may entitle UK car buyers to billions of pounds worth of compensation from the banks and other firms that financed their wheels could have negative consequences for the auto ABS market. We take the scenic route in examining the situation. 

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◆ Trump triumphs, Scholz slumps, rates roil
◆ Credit issuers off to the races
◆ Rates issuers contend with unprecedented Bund-swap inversion

The underlying movements between benchmark rates and bond yields are rocking the capital markets. Why? Well, this week the blame could be laid squarely at the door of politics.

Donald Trump's resounding victory in the US presidential race means the world's economic currents are about to shift, turbo charging some areas and threatening others. Meanwhile, the collapse of Germany's government helped to push Bund yields above euro swap rates for the first time ever.

Both these things have driven big changes in the value of one asset class in the bond market against another, affecting how much investors want to buy them. We explain the changes underway in SSA, covered, FIG and corporate bonds and what they mean for issuers in the weeks and months ahead.

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◆ What Trump or Harris mean for EM sovereign issuers 
◆ The outlook for UK capital markets after the Budget 
◆ Creditors turn on each other in Thames Water saga

In a year of elections, now comes the big one — the US votes on November 5 for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump as its next president. Whoever wins, and whichever of the Democrats or Republicans ends up controlling Congress, the effect of the results will be felt around the world, including in its capital markets.

We focus on one group of borrowers for whom the result can make or break their bond market access: emerging market sovereigns. We discuss the effect a Trump or Harris presidency will likely have on their funding access and why.

The UK's new Labour government revealed its first Budget this week. We examine how the event affected the Gilt market and look more broadly at the outlook for equities, M&A and investment banking in the country.

Finally, an update on the latest twist in Thames Water's debt saga as different groups of creditors launched alternative and competing proposals to lend the company more money.

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◆ New CEO revamps HSBC to be leaner and meaner 
◆ What markets think of idea to make UK water sector non-profit 
◆ The swap spread dynamic hammering SSA bonds

New HSBC boss Georges Elhedery is restructuring the bank. It's what new CEOs do; and it has certainly been tried at HSBC before, with mixed results. But plenty of people think this time could be different. We explain why Elhedery's plan could work and what the motivations are behind it.

A corporate restructuring idea that received a less enthusiastic reception was one to make the UK's troubled water companies — privately owned — operate as non-profits. The sector is in crisis and requires huge investment. The thought is that money previously funnelled into private hands by way of dividends should be used to pay for it. We talk through the ramifications and the reaction in capital markets.

Finally, we look into the accelerating tightening of the spread between Bund yields and interest rate swaps in euros and why this could cause a headache for supranational and agency bond issuers.