How do polls keep underestimating Trump's support - three elections in a row? On this episode, my guest Brett Loyd and I discuss how polling works and why it's hard to perfectly predict an election outcome when we're so evenly divided 50/50. We also ponder if Republicans and Democrats will learn the correct lessons from the one poll that matters - how Americans voted on election day (spoiler alert, we're not sure they'll learn the right lessons).

(My excitement for election day was crushed by waking up with some sort of stomach bug that has lingered into today, so apologies up front if I sound and look miserable. It's not all to do with Trump winning.)

The polls underestimate Trump support for a third election in a row, and he (most likely) sweeps all 7 swing states. Republicans have definitely taken the Senate and will more than likely keep control of the House.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris proved to be the terrible candidate I thought she'd be - doing worse than Biden nearly across the board. There will be plenty of finger pointing by Democrats on who's to blame for her loss.

In the final week before the election, let's talk about how I think we're in trouble for the next 4 years - regardless of who is elected. Both Harris and Trump are promising domestic policies that would be very bad for the economy and Americans, and neither give me confidence in their potential foreign policies. So, frankly, I believe we'll be worse off either way in 4 years.

NOTES:

We're less than 2 weeks away from the election it seems like we've been talking about for 4 years, now. Who will win? When will we know who won? Will either side accept defeat without spreading wild and unfounded conspiracy theories? In short, it's a coin-flip, not on November 5th, and not likely.

Also, is Elon Musk's multi-million dollar lottery illegal registering voters? And what the independent panel investigating the Secret Service's failures during the first Trump assassination attempt found and its recommendations to fix the agency.

Chapters:

0:00 - Intro

3:10 - What does November 6th look like?

10:56 - What do polls say? Who's winning right now, Trump or Harris?

23:13 - Why we won't know who won when we go to bed on election night

31:52 - Will either side concede defeat graciously without spewing stolen election nonsense?

43:44 - Is Elon Musk's multi-million dollar petition signing motivation illegal?

50:40 - The report on Secret Service's failures in Butler, PA leading up to the attempted assassination of Trump

NOTES:

WSJ - Democratic voter registration scheme

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-charity-voter-registration-scheme-tax-exemption-soros-democracy-philanthropy-501c3-georgia-11663883529

Elon Musk's Petition and Swing State $$ Giveaway

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-petition-million-swing-state-giveaway-money-legal-rcna176568

FiveThirtyEight Interactive Map

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map/?promoref=Subnav

Real Clear Politics Top Battlegrounds Polling Average

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

On this episode, I speak with Adam Brandon from The Independent Center (https://www.independentcenter.org/) about how more Americans are ditching the Democratic and Republican parties and registering as Independents. How will these demographic and party platform shifts affect the U.S. political system, going forward?

Spoiler alert: No, they're not being stolen. Despite what you may have heard from prominent Democrats in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and Republicans in 2020, there's no evidence ANY of those presidential elections were stolen. And Trump is already laying the groundwork to blame his (potential) 2024 loss on noncitizen voting. 

Why can't anyone just admit they lost? 

Notes:

Four Things to Know About Noncitizen Voting  

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/four-things-to-know-about-noncitizen-voting/

Myths About Noncitizen Voting: Heritage Foundation Data  

https://web.archive.org/web/20240915091824/https://immigrationimpact.com/2024/08/01/myths-about-noncitizen-voting-heritage-foundation-data/

Immigrant Noncitizen Voting: Republicans  

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/us/politics/immigrant-noncitizen-voting-republicans.html

Noncitizen Voting: Missing Millions  

https://web.archive.org/web/20240915091823/https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/noncitizen-voting-missing-millions

Former Trump Voting Commission Official Forced to Apologize for Falsely Accusing People of Voter Fraud  

https://web.archive.org/web/20240913215136/https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/fmr-trump-voting-commission-official-forced-to-apologize-for-falsely-accusing-people-of-voter-fraud/

Trump Voter Fraud Commission  

https://web.archive.org/web/20240915175618/https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/us/politics/trump-voter-fraud-commission.html

U.S. Election Software National Security Threats  

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/01/us-election-software-national-security-threats-00176615

The Swing State Election Laws That Could Decide the Presidency  

https://pepperdine-graphic.com/the-swing-state-election-laws-that-could-decide-the-presidency/

Mike Johnson, JD Vance, and Election Denial  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/08/mike-johnson-jd-vance-election-denial/

The Riddle of the Sphinx  

https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/the-riddle-of-the-sphinx/

Why Do Millions of Americans Believe the 2020 Presidential Election Was Stolen from Donald Trump?  

https://theconversation.com/why-do-millions-of-americans-believe-the-2020-presidential-election-was-stolen-from-donald-trump-224016

12 Minutes of Democrats Denying Election Results  

https://gop.com/video/12-minutes-of-democrats-denying-election-results/

LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!! *checks notes* sorry, LET'S GET READY TO POLITELY DISCUSS POLICY DIFFERENCES!!! Vance and Tim Walz managed to do what their bosses couldn't; have a civil and substantive debate. Going into the debate, most predictions were completely off the mark about how bombastic, angry, and insulting it might be. It'd be nice if we had more of this kind of political discourse, but alas, it probably won't move the needle for either campaign, so I'm sure the lesson learned will be "never do that again!", unfortunately.

Also, will the east coast longshoreman strike affect the election?

Notes:

* The High Cost of Labor Strife at U.S. Ports by Scott Lincicome

* Hooray for Price-Gouging, Boo for Monopoly by Kevin Williamson

Maybe America's physical isolation from countries trying to invade or attack us makes us particularly less-informed about foreign policy than citizens on the other side of the world. I'm not sure, but figured it'd be a good idea to check in on the Israel/Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran situation as well as the Russia/Ukraine conflict. 

Last week, Israel ramped up it's "escalation to deescalate" against Hezbollah in Lebanon by exploding their pagers and walkie talkies and striking known weapons storage facilities. This week, Ukrainian President Zelenski is in the U.S. visiting not just the U.N. General Assembly, but a munitions factory in of all places swing state Pennsylvania. Are Republicans right to be upset at the appearance of a foreign country meddling in our elections? 

NOTES:

The Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Intensifies

https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/morning/the-israel-hezbollah-conflict-intensifies/

Israel's Focus Shifts North After Electronics Attack

https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/morning/israels-focus-shifts-north-after-electronics-attack/

The Zelensky Endorsement

https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/the-zelensky-endorsement/

Zelensky US Visit: Ammunition Plant, Pennsylvania, UN, Ukraine

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/23/zelensky-us-visit-ammunition-plant-pennsylvania-un-ukraine

Zelensky Pennsylvania Seen By Some Republicans As A Bid To Boost Democrats

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/3163793/zelensky-pennsylvania-seen-some-republicans-bid-boost-democrats/

UN-American: GOP Bristles at Zelensky’s Criticism

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/09/24/un-american_gop_bristles_zelenskys_criticism_trump_vance_151672.html

Volodymyr Zelensky Has a Plan for Ukraine’s Victory

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/volodymyr-zelensky-has-a-plan-for-ukraines-victory

Democrats’ “Perfect Phone Call” to Zelensky

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/democrats-perfect-phone-call-to-zelensky/

Iran’s Plot Against Trump Is an Attack on America

https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/09/irans-plot-against-trump-is-an-attack-on-america/

Israel Pounds Iran-Backed Hezbollah’s Strongholds While Biden-Harris Administration Is Mum

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/israel-pounds-iran-backed-hezbollahs-strongholds-and-iran-friendly-biden-harris-administration-is-mum/

Hezbollah Has Fired 8,000 Rockets at Israel Since October 7

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/hezbollah-has-fired-8000-rockets-at-israel-since-october-7/

Biden Gives Swan Song Speech at UN General Assembly

https://www.semafor.com/article/09/24/2024/biden-gives-swansong-speech-at-un-general-assembly

The Shifting Foundations of Gulf-US Ties

https://www.semafor.com/article/09/25/2024/the-shifting-foundations-of-gulf-us-ties

Houthi Missile Strikes Central Israel: Netanyahu

https://www.semafor.com/article/09/15/2024/houthi-missile-strikes-central-israel-netanyahu

Hezbollah’s Pagers and Walkie-Talkies

https://www.thefp.com/p/hezbollahs-pagers-and-walkie-talkies

Friedman: When We Started to Lie

https://www.thefp.com/p/friedman-when-we-started-to-lie

Hezbollah’s Hostages, Sex Slaves, Syria, and the Free Press

https://www.thefp.com/p/hezbollahs-hostages-sex-slave-syria-free-press

Exposing the Hypocrisy of the Genocide Propagandists

https://www.commentary.org/seth-mandel/exposing-the-hypocrisy-of-the-genocide-propagandists/

The Post-Ceasefire Phase of the War

https://www.commentary.org/seth-mandel/the-post-ceasefire-phase-of-the-war/

Echoes of 2006: Israel, Hezbollah, and the Potential for Regional War

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/echoes-of-2006-israel-hezbollah-and-the-potential-for-regional-war/

The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah

https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah

For only the 2nd time since her coronation, Kamala Harris faced the public without the aid of a teleprompter last night in the first presidential debate with Donald Trump. Kamala has enough vulnerabilities that any replacement level republican politician (or even the non-politicians texting me during it) could've knocked out of the park and her down a peg or two, but alas, Trump is not even talented enough to do so. Yes, the moderators were bad and unfair to Trump, but what's new in conservative politics? We expect the media to be biased. As my dad texted me during the debate, "Trump is hanging himself with his own rope". I think that pretty much sums it up.

Mackenzie is back to talk about it, because she can't get enough of my negativity and pessimism.