The hurricane update

..ALEX BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was about 130 miles ( 210 km) north-northeast of Bermuda. Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some weakening is forecast, and Alex is expected to become an extratropical low later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, the Bermuda Airport reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda for the next several hours.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN BERMUDA AS ALEX PASSES NEARBY...

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex is about 100 miles (was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 65.1 West.  Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until the storm is absorbed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast, and Alex is expected to become an extratropical low later today.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue in Bermuda through this afternoon.  The Bermuda Airport reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) within the last hour.  A Bermuda Weather Service buoy at Crescent Reef, just north of Bermuda, recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h).  An automated station at the Bermuda Heliport reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda through this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda through this afternoon.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

..DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA…

...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance IS ABOUT 35 MILES (60 km) northeast of Naples, Florida. The system is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across southern or central Florida today, over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic.  It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km) to the east of the center.  Over the past few hours, a weather station at Fowey Rocks near Miami, Florida reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) at an elevation of 144 ft (44 m).

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys through this morning, beginning to diminish this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue across the northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are expected:

South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected.

Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

.FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY…

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located about 45 miles (70 km) south-southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The system is moving faster toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across southern or central Florida today, over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls.  The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) to the east of the center.  Over the past few hours, a weather station at Government Cut near Miami, Florida reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) at an elevation of 75 ft (23 m).

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will affect portions of South Florida, the Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are expected:

South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding are expected.

Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are still possible in western Cuba through this morning, mainly in squalls.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through the early afternoon.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. www.nhc.noaa.gov

.DISTURBANCE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maximum of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was about 350 miles (560 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The system is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm tonight, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through Saturday, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys:  4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys  This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba through tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba this afternoon and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft

Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

...DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA…

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was about 125 miles (200 km) north of Cozumel, Mexico and about 430 miles (690 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The system is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed starting later today. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida today and tonight. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and Sunday. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through Saturday, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys:  4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys  This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft

Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne

Bay...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. www.nhc.noaa.gov

DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered about 125 miles (200 km) north of Cozumel, Mexico and about 420 miles (675 km) southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida today and tonight. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and Sunday. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through Saturday, and affect the northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba later today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft

Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. www.nhc.noaa.gov

On this Thursday afternoon,  a broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these areas later today. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys. www.hurricanes.gov

On this Thursday morning, NHC is closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a during the next five days. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.

Elsewhere, shower activity associated with a weak surface trough located about 200 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has diminished, and upper-level winds remain strong in the area.  Development of this system is not expected while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next couple of days. It has a near zero chance of development during the next 48 hours and five days. www.hurricanes.gov

n this Wednesday afternoon, NHC is closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,  producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual development is forecast and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. It has a high (70 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (80 percent)  chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere, a weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward the next several days away from the southeastern United States. It has a low (10 percent) chance during the next 48 hours and five days.  www.hurricanes.gov