The hurricane update

.REMNANTS OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...

The mountainous terrain of southern Mexico continues to take a toll on Agatha.  Although a fairly well-defined mid-level circulation is still evident in satellite imagery, the low-level center has dissipated over southern Mexico.  Therefore, this will be the final advisory on Agatha.

At 10 a.m. CDT, the remnants were located about 80 miles (125 km) north-northeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.  On the forecast track, the remnants of Agatha will continue to move inland over southern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.  The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). Additional weakening is expected today.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts are currently expected:

- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.  For additional information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national meteorological service.

..LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS

PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO AGATHA'S HEAVY RAINS...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bahias de Huatulco eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan Mexico. Tropical storm conditions, especially in squalls, are expected to continue in the warning area through this morning.

At 4 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located inland over Mexico about 45 miles (75 km) north-northwest of Santa Cruz.  It's moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.  On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to move farther inland over southern Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). Further weakening is expected, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by this afternoon.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts are currently expected:

- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, withisolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 a.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

.AGATHA MAKES LANDFALL JUST WEST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND...

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua.

* A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan and Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado.

Hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland within a portion of the hurricane warning area through this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the warning area through tonight.

Satellite imagery indicates that Hurricane Agatha has made landfall along the coast of southern Mexico just west of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Agatha was located inland about 5 miles (10 km) west of Puerto Angel. It's moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will continue to move inland over Oaxaca through early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). Rapid weakening is expected as the hurricane moves farther inland.  Agatha is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later tonight, and dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.

Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:

- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at  10 p.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

...AGATHA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY...

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA...

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua.

* A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan and Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions have begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread eastward within the warning area through the day.

At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Agatha was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).  An observation in Puerto Angel recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). Little change in strength is expected to occur today before Agatha reaches the coast of Oaxaca.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.

Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:

-Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at  4 p.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

..SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA...

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER OAXACA THROUGH THE DAY...

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua.

* A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan and Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

At 4 a.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Agatha was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean about 100 miles 160 km) southwest of the Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). Little change in strength is expected today before Agatha reaches the coast of Oaxaca.  Rapid weakening is expected after

landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.

Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where thecenter of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by later today into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:

- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

- Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at  10 a.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

.AGATHA ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...

...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua.

* A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan and Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Agatha was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean about 185 miles (295 km) southwest of the Puerto Angel, Mexico. drifting to the northeast near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a faster northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico  Monday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches). Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha is forecast to become a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday.

Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where thecenter of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by later today into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:

- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

- Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at  10 p.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

.AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...

...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua.

* A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan and Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possibly in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Agatha was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of the Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a motion toward the northeast continuing through Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico later today and tonight and make landfall there on Monday.

Agatha is rapidly strengthening.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

Additional  strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday.

Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where thecenter of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by later today into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:

- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

- Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at  4 p.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...

...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado. Hurricane conditions are possible within that area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late Sunday or early Monday.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today.

At 7 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located over the eastern North Pacific Ocean about 220 miles (355 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  Agatha is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast to occur, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:

- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

- Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 a.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

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