The Incerto Podcast

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I am stoked to welcome back one of the most out there and interesting writers, thinkers and speakers, Rory Sutherland.

He founded the behavioural science team at the Ogilvy group, he is one of Europe’s most powerful advertising executives and author many many books and articles, his most recent book, Alchemy, coming highly recommended and is a treatise on how great marketing ideas are built around the profoundly irrational… Rory appeared once before on this podcast in episode 115.

And today, for his second appearance I was lucky enough to do this with Rory in person, I got the train out of London to Rory’s hometown and we settled up in the courtyard of a beautiful little cafe in the sun. And so, you get the ambience of birds and wind to frame the conversation.

There are no timestamps on this podcast today, because with Rory’s erudition there is unseen flow from one thought to another that makes a narrow subject timestamp non suitable, rather, consume this one in full, we open with Salman Rushdie and his days as a copywriter to Rory reflecting on his recent notoriety, a powerful insight that the best marketing is in fact fat tailed, behind the scenes of his Rick Rubin interview all the way to me asking Rory whether he’s ever done a floaty.

Other episode of the podcast that suit this episode...

• Rory Sutherland – First Appearance #115
• Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
• Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

Follow me on Instagram – @ryanfhogg

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter - the ultimate compliment to the podcast...

Other episode of the podcast that suit this episode...

• Brian Klaas – Fluke & Randomness
• Russ Roberts – EconTalk
• Luca Dellanna – Ergodicity All The Way Down
• Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
• Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

Follow me on Instagram – @ryanfhogg

Everything Is Predictable – Tom Chivers

Tom Chivers is a prolific science writer whose written for Buzzfeed, The Telegraph, Unherd, published books, written for loads of other publications as well and now writes for Semafor’s daily flagship email (something I read everyday)… but here Tom is today to discuss his book about Bayes called… EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World and, the lead is not buried in this case, it is a book about Bayes Throerom which to put it simply… is an equation to calculate probability.

Now, my Talebian listeners will recognise a contradiction to our worldview in the title here… everything is predictable? how often has Taleb’s quotes, how can we predict a future of infinite possibilities based off a finite experience of the past appeared on this podcast? We get into Chivers differences with that Talebian worldview, but as well, there is top to bottom what is Bayes theorem, why does it matter, the role of this theorem at the foundation of all of these LLM’s and therefore much of AI. a neat little anecdote of Chivers family member, Sir John Maynard Keynes and plenty more as well!

• 00:00 – Who Is Tom Chivers
• 01:34 – Great Great Uncle John Maynard Keynes
• 08:44 – What’s The Point Of Bayes?
• 19:14 – What Is Bayes Theorem?
• 39:34 – Disagreeing With Nassim Taleb 
• 52:24 – Counterintuitive Aspects Of Bayes
• 56:28 – Bayes & LLM’s & AI
• 1:15:12 – Serendipity In Tom’s Life

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

Apple - Brian Klaas (Full Episode) Curious Worldview Podcast
Spotify - Brian Klaas (Full Episode) Curious Worldview Podcast

✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter https://curiousworldview.beehiiv.com/subscribe

https://atlasgeographica.com/brian-klaas/

Brian Klaas is an associate professor in global politics at University College London, author of several books, host of a really good podcast, creator of a huge substack and someone who has created a life for himself for which I wish to emulate many parts…

We recorded this in person!… Brian and I sat down together in his Winchester kitchen and spoke about randomness, chance, Nassim Taleb, Flukes and why all these things are worth thinking about…

If you like Taleb, then Brian’s new book, Fluke which just came out… is right up your alley. Brian’s research is wonderful.

• 00:00 – Who Is Brian Klaas?
• 01:00 – Life Can Be Understood Backwards, But It Must Be Lived Forwards.
• 11:55 – Does Brian Feel Like He Has More Or Less Agency?
• 20:51 – Taleb’s Blindfold Metaphor & The Problems Of Prediction.
• 35:20 – How Nassim Taleb Effected Brian’s Worldview.
• 44:55 – Why Experimentation Is Wise.
• 50:55 – Why The Minority Rule Is Relevant To Politics.
• 53:20 – Extremistan V Mediocristan
• 1:03:00 – The Idea Of Lock-In.
• 1:07:30 – Serendipity In Brian’s Life & The Media Landscape In The Next 20 Years.
• 1:22:00 – Brian’s Favourite Authors.
• 1:24:30 – An Ode To Madagascar & Explanation OF Geographical Determinism.

Curious Things Mentioned During The Episode

• Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
• Russ Roberts – Reflecting on 15 Years Of EconTalk
• Luca Dellana – Ergodicity
• Me Being Interviewed For The Profile On Nassim Taleb
• Nassim Taleb Incerto Podcast
• Nassim Taleb Incerto Book Reviews

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736

🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

The following is with the debut Italian on this podcast, the one and only Luca Dellanna.

Luca is the extremely successful author of 9 books, and he writes these alongside his day job, as an independent consultant advising businesses across the world at the intersection of risk and behavioural psychology 

This makes him the best communicator of the subject of todays conversation, which funnily enough is the very same title of most recent book... Ergodicity.

Time Stamps For Luca Dellanna

• 00:00 – Introduction
• 01:23 – What Is Ergodicity?
• 05:53 - Why Does Ergodicity Matter?
• 15:23 - Fat Tails & Power Laws
• 22:43 - Consultants & Skin In The Game
• 29:50 - Ole Peters & Ergodicity In Insurance
• 39:58 - The Perfect Example To Explain Ergodicity + My Attempt At Applying Ergodicity To Cricket
• 48:31 - Behavioural Change Is Non Ergodic
• 51:35 - Kelly Criterion In Nature + Survivorship Bias & Lindy
• 1:07:58 - The Influence Of Nassim Taleb
• 1:16:03 - Serendipity & Ergodicity

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736

🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/russ-roberts/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

Russ Roberts ladies and gentlemen.

One of the true OG’s of podcasting and in fact so OG, that Russ is one of the mediums earliest adopters, Russ has been at this racket for nearly 20 years now since he debuted EconTalk in 2006. 

And although economics is literally in the title, the show expands well beyond the narrow domain of theoretical economics – it is much broader and has transformed over the years into one of the most authentic reflections of a hosts shifting curiosities.

And with guests the likes of Milton Friedman, Thomas Pikety, Christopher Hitchens, Michael Lewis and even the great and elusive Nassim Taleb, you can see why EconTalk is one of the most appraised shows out there.

Time Stamps For Russ Roberts

• 00:00 – Introduction
• 02:23 – Christopher Hitchens
• 07:32 – Good Communication Versus Good Talking… (Podcasting?)
• 29:53 – Do Certain Cultures Create More Good Communicators Than Others?
• 35:46 – Nassim Taleb All The Way Down
• 59:08 – I Run A Theory By Russ + Russ Reflecting On EconTalk
• 1:12:03 – The Role That Serendipity Has Played In Russ’s Life
• 1:17:23 – Country Russ Is Particularly Bullish On
• 1:22:51 – Conversation Between Any Two People Of History

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

Curious Things Mentioned During The Episode

• Christopher Hitchens Mortality
• Ben Burgis – Life Of Christopher Hitchens
• Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
• Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736

🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/the-incerto-nassim-taleb-podcast/

Taleb & Mandelbrot paper - https://users.math.yale.edu/~bbm3/web_pdfs/mildvswild.pdf

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

🎙️: A Curious Worldview Podcast - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736

🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/scott-patterson/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

Scott Patterson writes for the WSJ and is author of The Quants, DarkPools and Chaos Kings. 

Anyone who has listened to this podcast for a while will be familiar with how influential Nassim Taleb has been on shaping my worldview…

Just a few of the characters profiled in this book include Bill Ackman, who runs the famous Pershing Square hedge fund, and made one of the greatest trades in recorded history at the beginning of Covid, Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel who together have made billions via their unusual hedge fund, Universa and as well, Didier Sornet, a fascinatingly interesting french mathematician and academic who believes opposite to Taleb, that Black Swans can be predicted.

In this podcast with Scott Patterson, you can expect to hear about the core of the chaos kings worldview, a lot about Nassim Taleb, serendipity and as well anecdotes for days that give you a deep insight into Scott as both a journalist and author.

• 00:00 – Introduction
• 02:30 – How The Chaos Kings Have Effected Scott’s Worldview
• 10:10 – Taleb’s Hedge Fund Antifragile Trading Strategy
• 12:40 – Scott’s Introduction To Taleb & Spitznagel
• 21:50 – What Principles Enabled Taleb & Spitznagel To Endure Loss Day After Day
• 28:55 – Why Do These Masters Of Risk Expose Themselves To Such Physical Risk
• 34:15 – The Core Of The Chaos Kings Worldview
• 47:47 – Taleb Or Sornet?
• 48:06 – Nassim Taleb Biography?
• 48:23 – Chamath Palihapatya
• 49:36 – How Does A Journalist Optimise For Tail Risk + Extremistan Explained For Authors
• 54:29 – How Will Scott Teach His Son To Optimise For Serendipity
• 55:55 – What Country Is Scott Bullish On

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

Curious Things Mentioned During The Episode

• Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736

🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/the-incerto-nassim-taleb-podcast/

Sophie Gray recently published this profile - https://thespectator.com/topic/nassim-nicholas-taleb-anti-confidence-man-bitcoin-ftx/ - of Nassim Taleb in the spectator.

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736

🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/the-incerto-nassim-taleb-podcast/

Sophie Gray recently published this profile - https://thespectator.com/topic/nassim-nicholas-taleb-anti-confidence-man-bitcoin-ftx/ - of Nassim Taleb in the spectator.

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736
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Sophie Gray recently published this profile - https://thespectator.com/topic/nassim-nicholas-taleb-anti-confidence-man-bitcoin-ftx/ - of Nassim Taleb in the spectator.

This podcast is about the process of interviewing Taleb and putting together this piece.