On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the January inflation report. The trio unpacks the mixed signals in the data—from moderating grocery prices and flat core goods readings to stickier restaurant and services inflation—while also examining the uneven pass-through of tariffs and ongoing concerns about data quality and statistical agency funding. Claudia underscores that while the data face challenges, there is no evidence of manipulation, and the broader disinflation trend—particularly in housing—remains intact.

They also dive into rising Super Core Services prices, emerging medical inflation pressures, and what recent CPI and PCE readings mean for the Federal Reserve’s next moves. With shelter inflation cooling but services still volatile, Greg, Laura, and Claudia weigh the case for a continued Fed pause and outline expectations for two potential rate cuts in the second half of the year. It’s a thoughtful, data-driven conversation on where inflation stands—and where it may be headed next.

Big ideas, bold debates, and an all-star lineup—February 22nd–24th in Washington, DC, the ⁠42nd Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference⁠ is where the economics world comes to talk realignment. Hear directly from economic heavyweights like Christine Lagarde, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, and Chris Waller as they unpack how AI, demographics, and geoeconomic shifts are reshaping the global economy.

If you want sharp insights, candid conversations, can’t-miss networking, and a front-row seat to where policy is headed, this is the place to be. For more information and to register, visit ⁠NABE.com/PC2026⁠.