On this episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton break down the February CPI report and what it signals about the path of inflation. While headline and core readings appeared relatively steady, the data revealed a more complicated story beneath the surface. Greg and Laura examine the diverging trends across goods and services, including modest increases in apparel and recreation goods—potentially reflecting tariff pass-through—alongside continued disinflation in shelter costs and persistent strength in leisure-related services.

The conversation also explores the growing gap between CPI and PCE inflation, rising medical care prices, and the potential inflationary impact of a sharp increase in gasoline prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With oil prices surging and energy costs likely to push headline inflation higher in the coming months, Greg and Laura discuss whether a new supply shock could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. As uncertainty builds across markets and global events unfold, the hosts assess what the latest data may mean for inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the months ahead.NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.