The InvestSense Podcast

This past week saw markets whipsawed by swirling uncertainty around U.S. trade policy under the second Trump administration. Well, that’s what the headlines suggested. In reality, markets fluctuated but ultimately moved higher on the perception that Trump’s real strategy was to use tariff threats as a bargaining tool before backing down once he had made his point.

The podcast covers:

• Markets Remain Resilient Amid Tariff Talk
• Economic Data Points to Mixed Signals:
• Central Banks Stay Cautious as Uncertainty Looms 
• What it means for diversified portfolios
• Crypto Collateral: A Lifeline for the U.S. Economy or a Dangerous Gamble? 

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-sanguine-reaction-to-trump-the-deal-maker  

Hear the conversation with Economist Andrew Hunt www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/crypto-collateral-a-lifeline-for-the-u-s-economy-or-a-dangerous-gamble 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Despite late-week turbulence, January ended with generally positive returns. However, new tariffs and fiscal tightening in the U.S. suggest that market volatility may persist in the weeks ahead.

The podcast covers:

• Market Reaction to New U.S. Tariffs
• Tech Sector Performance and AI Developments 
• Fiscal Tightening Raises Economic Concerns

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-rattle-as-tariffs-and-ai-disrupt-global-outlook

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

The past week kicked off with a bang with the announcement of the ambitious Stargate AI infrastructure project—only to be swiftly overshadowed by Chinese startup Deepseek, whose large language model challenged assumptions of U.S. tech dominance.The podcast covers:

• DeepSeek and its disruption in markets
• Australia’s Q4 CPI numbers
• Central Bank Divergence 

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-whipsawed-by-stargate-and-then-chinas-deepseek-ai-model 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

The past week was dominated by anticipation ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration. Executive orders, trade policy, fiscal stimulus and monetary decisions led to mixed movements across global markets.The podcast covers:

• Markets React to Trump’s First Policy Moves
• U.S. Dollar Rally Stalls as Tariff Uncertainty Looms 
• Diverging Global Economic Trends
• Is U.S. exceptionalism coming to an end with Economist Andrew Hunt

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-await-policy-clarity-as-trump-takes-office  

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

We’re doing something a little different for the first market sense check of 2025. This update will: 

• Catch you up on key market movements during the holiday break. www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-stumble-as-trump-inauguration-approaches 
• Reflect on the final performance figures of 2024. www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/2024-a-year-of-u-s-exceptionalism-and-diverging-global-markets 
• Examine what ‘The Street’ is predicting for 2025 (and why you shouldn’t get too distracted by it). www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/2025-outlook-balancing-consensus-less-consensus-and-contrarian-views 
• Share what we are focusing on for the year ahead. www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/turning-market-mood-swings-into-opportunity 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

In the last weekly market sense check of the year, global financial markets have had a strong reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve's final policy decision of 2024.

In brief:

Fed's Hawkish Rate Cut Signals Slowdown: The Fed’s latest decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was paired with a forward-looking stance indicating a slower pace of monetary easing in 2025. Despite this reduction, the Fed projects only two more cuts next year.

Economic Data and Market Reactions: Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Additionally, disappointing U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures contrasted with surprisingly strong Australian employment numbers, painting a mixed picture of the global economic landscape as 2024 comes to a close.

Global Central Banks on Hold: The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan maintained their current interest rates, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic conditions. This conservative stance highlights the diverse challenges facing global economies, with each central bank taking a measured approach to future policy adjustments.


Get access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/financial-markets-digest-feds-hawkish-cut-as-central-banks-make-final-moves-of-2024 


Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights

Last week highlighted growing signs of a slowing global economy as central banks signalled further rate cuts may be on the horizon.


Topics Covered:

• Central Bank Rate Cuts in Focus
• U.S. Jobs Report: Mixed Signals for the Labour Market
• Europe Grapples with Economic Stagnation

Get access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/central-banks-poised-to-cut-rates-amid-sluggish-growth 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights

Last week, markets reacted to President-elect Donald Trump's heated trade rhetoric and central banks signalling a slower pace for interest rate adjustments.

Topics Covered:

• Trade tensions escalate amid Trump rhetoric
• Central banks signal a shift in rate policy
• Large-Caps Vs Small Caps in the post-election market 

Get access to the charts:  

Market Summary: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-adjust-as-trump-rhetoric-heats-up-and-central-banks-signal-slower-pace-of-cuts

What we are working on:www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/balancing-risks-and-opportunities-in-the-post-election-market 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights

Financial markets last week were driven by growing evidence of a widening economic divide between the United States and Europe.

In brief:
Diverging Economic Trends Between the U.S. and Europe: The U.S. economy remains strong with robust growth in its services sector, while Europe faces challenges, with declining activity in key countries like Germany and France.

Implications for Monetary Policy and Markets: In Europe, weak data has raised the chances of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, while in the U.S., strong economic signals are reducing the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts. Upcoming U.S. inflation data will be crucial in shaping these decisions.

Key Risks and Opportunities: U.S. tariffs could worsen Europe’s economic troubles, but they may also push for closer Eurozone cooperation. Meanwhile, U.S. policymakers remain optimistic, keeping an eye on inflation and holiday spending as signals of economic health.

Get access to the charts:www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-reflect-diverging-economic-paths-for-u-s-and-europe 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights

The past week saw markets digest the mixed signals about the implications of Donald Trump's election victory and early policy moves.

In brief 

Equities and Currency Volatility: U.S. equities surged early in the week, driven by sectors like financials and energy, but the rally faded as markets began reevaluating the "Trump trade." Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar hit a two-year high before pulling back slightly.

Earnings Growth Paradox: Companies with strong international exposure, like Alphabet and Nvidia, are leading U.S. earnings growth. However, Trump's "America First" policies could challenge their success if trade restrictions and tariffs are implemented aggressively.

Central Banks on Alert: Inflation risks are causing Central Banks to rethink their policies. The Fed’s December rate cut odds dropped, while the RBA and other global banks are taking a more cautious approach to easing.

Get access to the charts:  www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/market-whiplash-how-markets-are-reacting-to-trumps-policy-signals 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights