The John Johnston Lounge

In this episode I summarize and discuss what legendary investor Steve Eisman, who was played by Steve Carell in the movie The Big Short, has been predicting for the end of the US stock market crash - after the market declined around 25% in 2022, and has been steadily rebounding since October 2022. I also respond to our value investing YouTuber friend Hamish Hodder's find that Eisman recently revealed his next big stock market sector bet.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:18 Eisman predicts: If the Fed stops raising rates...

05:05 The forward-looking stock market

06:21 Lower inflation and a recession?

08:44 Eisman's investments

10:21 A sector of particular interest

Related episodes:

Mohnish Pabrai on Mistakes, AI Euphoria, Nvidia, Microsoft

https://youtu.be/zs7pdV3fSJc

Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory”

https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk

Stan Druckenmiller Still Predicts Hard Landing Recession

https://youtu.be/8Ue-etn4E74

Hamish Hodder: Big Short Investor Predicts END of the Stock Market Crash

https://youtu.be/Snto0ZK-dIA

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investor portfolios, and help monitor my portfolio (refferal link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent interview with veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham, in which he explains how he thinks the deflation of a financial markets super-bubble is currently being prolonged by an emerging mini-bubble in artificial intelligence (AI).

Timestamps:

00:00 Jeremy Grantham Super-Bubble Intro

00:45 Who is Jeremy Grantham? 

01:21 Grantham's prediction track record

02:21 Super-Bubble stages, including the emerging AI mini-bubble

05:45 Is this a big bear market rally?

07:54 The AI hype cycle

08:59 Prolonged Super-Bubble deflation

10:08 Time to take AI stock profits?

Related episodes:

Jeremy Grantham Super Bubble: Euphoria to Panic to Recession

https://youtu.be/LZfe8M4kpJc

Mohnish Pabrai on Mistakes, AI Euphoria, Nvidia, Microsoft

https://youtu.be/zs7pdV3fSJc

Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory”

https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk

Seth Klarman: We've Had An Everything Bubble

https://youtu.be/C4rs2M_lOKw

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use TIKR Terminal to help analyze great businesses, follow top investors, and help monitor my portfolio (refferal link): http://tikr.com/theartofvalue

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss selected parts of a recent Q&A session with value investor and fund manager Mohnish Pabrai. During the Q&A Pabrai offered his thoughts on investing mistakes and the reasons for the high average rate of investor errors, current Nvidia (NVDA) euphoria compared with Microsoft (MSFT) euphoria during the Dotcom Bubble, and what it takes to be a good investor.

Timestamps:

00:00 Mohnish Pabrai Q&A intro

00:19 Investing mistakes and projecting Nvidia to infinity

01:20 Microsoft stock during and after the Dotcom Bubble

02:59 Amazon stock during and after the Dotcom Bubble

03.27 Nvidia rhyming with Dotcom Bubble era Mircosoft

05:11 The AI too hard basket and asking simpler questions

06:54 The other reason for high error rates in investing

07:58 What's needed to be a good investor

Related episodes:

Mohnish Pabrai: Key Investing Lessons from "Circling the Wagons”

https://youtu.be/TqC_m7-DPfM

Chuck Akre Said This About How to Find 100 Baggers

https://youtu.be/xoKe1AvquTI

Mohnish Pabrai Portfolio Update: Pabrai Buys BAM Stock! (Brookfield Asset Management)

https://youtu.be/c5ivXtnz6-U

Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory”

https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk

Mohnish Pabrai's Q&A with members of the Finance and Investment Cell at SRCC, Delhi on June 14, 2023 https://youtu.be/tYtG7ZvMSjM

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent interview with legendary value investor Seth Klarman. During the interview Klarman discussed the “Everything Bubble” he sees unwinding, the investing opportunities that’s bringing, the nature of value investing in relation to growth, buying quality companies at the right price, how to get an edge in the competitive investing environment today, technology investing in inefficient markets, Bitcoin, the current macroeconomic environment, and more.

Timestamps:

00:00 Seth Klarman Intro

00:37 Security Analysis revised 

00:59 The Everything Bubble

02:05 The Bubble timeline and investing opportunities: 4/10

03:26 Then and now: railroads to SPACs and crypto

04:44 What is value investing? Klarman's definition 

05:48 How to think about growth in investing

06:10 Not overpaying for quality companies

06:54 Warren Buffett and buying the Index 

07:37 How to get an edge

08:15 Inefficient markets and mis-priced stocks: META

09:09 Thoughts on technology disruption and crypto

09:43 Is Bitcoin digital gold?

10:32 Macroeconomic prediction and investing

Related episodes:

Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory” https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk

Are AI Stocks A Bubble? Druckenmiller, Greenblatt Said… https://youtu.be/KmlXeoM5LLY

Peter Lynch's 2023 Advice on Buying Stocks - Rare Interview https://youtu.be/sZKt5j1Rwi0

Investing Book referenced in this episode:

Security Analysis, Seventh Edition: Principles and Technique, by Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Seth Klarman - editor (referral link) https://amzn.to/444wP3K

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode discusses recent comments by three stock market investors, including legendary fund managers Stanley Druckenmiller and Joel Greenblatt, focusing on the question: we know there’s an artificial intelligence (AI) boom going on right now, but is there an AI stock bubble? We look at what these investors are saying about AI stocks, Nvidia stock (NVDA), the current stock market, and how they think it’s going to play out. I also give my opinion on the topics.

Timestamps:

00:00 AI stock bubble intro

00:14 Stan Druckemmiller: Separating the wheat from the chaff.

05:17 Joel Greenblatt: Current opportunities rhyming with the Dotcom Bubble.

08:57 Jim Bianco - Wealthion: AI stocks are “way out there in bubble-land...”

12:37 My final thoughts: AI is a long term secular move but...

Related episodes:

Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory”

https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk

Microsoft to Challenge Google Search Using OpenAI's ChatGPT

https://youtu.be/Vh42ZgADo5k

The AI Race is ON! Google Showcases New AI Products

https://youtu.be/xL7MvGAjdew

Interviews referenced in the episode:

Bloomberg (June 2023): Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio

https://youtu.be/NERglanBMIk

HFA Fireside Chat with Hedge Fund Manager Joel Greenblatt

https://youtu.be/utP9ZVog554

Wealthion: AI Stocks Definitely In A Bubble Right Now | Jim Bianco

https://youtu.be/MazHnXttvQk

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and respond to a recent Wall Street Journal article questioning the current Tesla stock market valuation. I also respond to popular investing YouTuber Joesph Carlson’s reaction to that Wall Street Journal Tesla analysis.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro: The Wall Stree Journal hit piece and Joseph Carlson’s response

01:40 Good company in a bad industry?

03:02 Not just an auto company?

04:11 Tesla ecosystem 

04:49 Tesla destination: does it need Elon?

05:43 Market valuation too expensive?

07:35 Renewed enthusiasm for Tesla Stock (TSLA)

08:53 Why the recent parabolic stock rise?

09:51 Is Tesla an AI company?

11:02 AI + Full Self Driving (FSD) + robotaxis  

13:02 GM’s Cruse and Google’s Waymo robotaxis 

14:46 Tesla Supercharging Network for all 

16:14 Supercharging the Tesla ecosystem

20:11 The destination for Tesla and its valuation

20:57 Are small caps a better bet?

21:32 Tesla the spawner company

22:48 Elon Musk: Twitter distraction?

23:56 To buy or not to buy?

Related episodes:

I Just Bought Tesla Stock for the 1st Time! https://youtu.be/YX76lZBp8X4

Is Tesla Stock Going to $60? https://youtu.be/MqN_rnkGDnE

The Art of Value Tesla Stock playlist (8 episodes):

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrNjj1l3MS7UkaBPMBFJF26HHxpUgH9zQ

Chuck Akre Said This About How to Find 100 Baggers

https://youtu.be/xoKe1AvquTI

Joseph Carlson After Hours: The Wall Street Journal Attacks Tesla https://youtu.be/23pPMUOD2nY

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss an interview with legendary investor Chuck Akre, in which he lays out his three-legged stool investing approach that has enabled him to achieve multiple 100 bagger stocks, and many multi-baggers. We look at examples from Akre Capital Management’s portfolio, and how his investment strategy has achieved such impressive returns over the long term. 

Timestamps:

00:00 Chuck Akre intro

00:31 Akre Capital Management Portfolio

01:45 Investing from a one traffic light town

03:03 More qualitative than quantitative 

03:34 Akre's three-legged stool approach

03:52 First leg

04:55 Second leg

05:25 Third leg

05:53 Not overpaying

06:18 The art of not selling

06:37 Portfolio company: Mastercard

08:22 Importance of keeping it simple

09:16 Importance of the businesspeople

10:33 Portfolio company: O’Reilly Automotive

10:59 100 to 1 in the Stock Market and 100 Baggers

12:50 100 bagger portfolio company: American Tower

14:53 Starting with small caps

15:48 When Akre sells - broken stools

16:19 Outro

Related episodes

Chris Mayer 100 Bagger Portfolio | Response to Stock Compounder

https://youtu.be/vzjCkGWoJfs

Chris Mayer 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100 to 1!

https://youtu.be/59CuGd2aAwg

Brookfield CEO Just Said This Re: Stock Market, AI, China, Energy

https://youtu.be/AWEvf2DcotI

Mohnish Pabrai: Key Investing Lessons from "Circling the Wagons”

https://youtu.be/TqC_m7-DPfM

Mohnish Pabrai Talks Constellation Software & Mark Leonard

https://youtu.be/xPI773-AE-I

Investing books recommended in the episode:

100 to 1 in the Stock Market : A Distinguished Security Analyst Tells How to Make More of Your Investment Opportunities - Thomas W Phelps (referral link): https://amzn.to/3JoThMN

100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How To Find Them - Christopher Mayer (referral link): https://amzn.to/3NH8OtT

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent panel interview with Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield and often referred to as the Canadian Warren Buffett. Flatt gave his thoughts on today’s stock market, what he thinks is currently overhyped, long term investing, investing in China, and the renewable energy transition.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro: Bruce Flatt and Brookfield

01:10 Brookfield’s super-investor shareholders

02:20 What’s overhyped right now

04:13 What's under-appreciated right now

04:53 Compounding wealth and when to invest

06:20 Outlook for the stock market, and investing positivity 

06:50 Stock market distractions and private investing

07:16 Investing in China

09:06 The energy transition to renewable energy

10:08 Final thoughts on long term investing  

Related content:

Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed Territory”

https://youtu.be/QP496jwcumk

Full Forbes Iconoclast Summit panel discussion with Bruce Flatt

https://youtu.be/iGnYQUplOOo

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode summarizes and discusses a recent interview with legendary macro-investor Stan Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller talked about his current bullishness on AI stocks and how they’ve been dominating his long portfolio for the past few months. He also talked about the hard landing recession that he still sees coming, and his predictions for the economic environment. His comments are always worth listening to, as he hasn’t had a year of negative investment returns in 40 years.

Timestamps:

00:00 Stan Druckenmiller intro

00:34 US-led tech innovation

01:02 The AI boom

02:04 Nvidia stock

02:36 AI dominating is longs

02:50 Lessons for AI from The Dotcom Bubble

04:16 Where are the fat pitches?

06:35 Hard landing recession ahead?

08:52 What will sink?  

10:50 When recession?

Related content:

Oct 2022: Stanley Druckenmiller Predicts Hard Landing Recession for 2023

https://youtu.be/VxpoJnbD8yo

May 2023: Stan Druckenmiller Still Predicts Hard Landing Recession

https://youtu.be/8Ue-etn4E74

Full Bloomberg invterview (June 2023): Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio

https://youtu.be/NERglanBMIk

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.

This episode is an update on Alibaba’s ongoing spin-off plans for its various business segments, starting with the Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group within the next 12 months, with others to follow. I explore what these business are, what they do, and what their prospects are as future individual companies.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:37 First Spinoff: Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group

02:10 Next IPO plans

02:28 China Commerce

03:08 International Commerce

03:38 Local Consumer Services

04:08 Cainiao

04:38 Alibaba Cloud

05:14 Digital Media and Entertainment

05:36 Innovations and Other Initiatives

06:30 Final thoughts

Related episodes:

Alibaba Full Year Earnings Update | BABA Stock

https://youtu.be/caAUsjmMGRw

Alibaba Reveals Break-Up Plan! | Big BABA Stock Upside?

https://youtu.be/spwgEGJlxmc

Mohnish Pabrai: Why I Switched from Alibaba to Tencent

https://youtu.be/v27JsHlgPZU

Are China Stocks UNINVESTABLE or HISTORIC VALUE OPPORTUNITY?

https://youtu.be/qfrjfIEx1vw

Using a referral link helps support the pod, thanks!

The main investment brokerage I use to buy international stocks, and to hold cash, is Interactive Brokers (referral link): https://ibkr.com/referral/john5664

I use GuruFocus for historical, financial and valuation data, screeners, charts and comparison tools, to help me make smarter long-term investing decisions (refferal link):

https://www.gurufocus.com/?r=2c95d5930bb2537b2e0265075fb66581

Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.