The John Johnston Lounge

By John JohnstonTechnology

The John Johnston Lounge episodes

November 14, 2022 Michael Burry on Meta & Pathways to META Stock Recovery
META stock has been continually hammered in the stock market since 2021. With return on investment of the new metaverse part of the business looking like it could be years away yet, and the advertising-focused parts of the business under some macroeconomic pressure, investors are wondering if the stock price will ever recover; and if it does, now much? In this episode, I look at those situations, and also what investor Michael Burry has been saying in his tweets recently about Meta and CEO Mark Zuckerberg. I look at the latest Meta earnings, and some of the the possibilities and probabilities for Meta Platforms and META stock for coming years.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:02 Michael Burry on Meta and Zuck
04:35 The Meta earnings that made Jim Cramer cry
07:29 Metaverse investments: too much, too fast?
09:24 Meta stock superinvestors
10:25 My current Meta opinion
Related video:
Michael Burry Admits Feeling Greedy as Stock Market Crashes (Latest Deleted Tweets)
https://youtu.be/T9pZU-bqlxs
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
15 min
November 08, 2022 Are China Stocks UNINVESTABLE or HISTORIC VALUE OPPORTUNITY?
In this episode I look at some of the pros and cons of investing in Chinese stocks in the current market environment, given valuations have dropped so much, and there is a great deal of pessimism and uncertainly around. Is the Chinese market now "uninvestable" as some analysts have been saying, or could it be a historic long-term value opportunity?
Stocks mentioned: BABA, PDD, JD, NIO, BIDU, HXC, KWEB, MPNGY, HKG:3690

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:27 China "uninvestable" or buying opportunity?
02:11 Xi Jinping's Common Prosperity and the market
04:20 China vs U.S. market value ratios
06:10 Popular China stocks update
08:26 Uninvestable often means future multibagger returns
11:37 Investing at the time of maximum pessimism
13:14 Some China positives
14:42 Charlie Munger's views on investing in China
16:31 Summing up and potential catalysts
Related episode:
Alibaba Stock Crash Continues! BABA Stock Update & Review
https://youtu.be/6UjgARFWx3U
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
20 min
November 02, 2022 Alibaba Stock Crash Continues! BABA Stock Update & Review
In this episode I look at why Alibaba (BABA) stock has fallen nearly 80% from its peak, and why it had yet another substantial drop just recently. I cover the pros and cons of owning BABA stock at this point, for the long term.

Timestamps:
00:44 Sources of investor fears and concerns
05:30 Positives and catalysts
07:05 Alibaba the company vs the stock price
08:50 Superinvestor BABA shareholders
10:32 Buy, sell, or hold?
Related episode:
Mohnish Pabrai: Why I Switched from Alibaba to Tencent https://youtu.be/v27JsHlgPZU
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision
13 min
October 28, 2022 Spotify Earnings Update: Has The Story Changed? | Stock: SPOT
After looking at the latest Spotify Q3 2022 earnings, and listening to the earnings call with CEO Daniel Ek, in this episode I give an updated summary and some commentary on the streaming media company. Has the investment story changed?
00:15 Spotify financial media headlines
02:57 SPOT recent share price action
03:35 Spotify Q3 2022 highlights
05:02 New video podcasting
05:44 Q3 2022 financial summary
06:19 Gross margin concern
07:45 Free cash flow
08:10 Global mix of monthly active users (MAUs)
09:03 First iteration of Audiobooks
09:43 Progress of Podcasting
10:08 Two-Sided Marketplace
10:30 Outlook for Q4 2022
10:48 Earnings call highlights and commentary
14:21 The critical metric: Lifetime User Value (LTV)
15:58 Danial Ek on gross margins
17:42 Increasing prices - pricing power
19:07 Battling the gatekeeper: Apple
19:42 A key takeaway
Related episode:
Some Key Takeaways from Spotify Investor Day 2022
https://youtu.be/EQHQcOZCkGM
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
21 min
October 25, 2022 How to Beat the Stock Market (S&P 500) by Doing NOTHING
Have you heard of the coffee can portfolio? It's a classic investing strategy, proven over many decades. It works only if the investor has the patience to carry it out without getting distracted. It involves doing nothing to beat the market, or almost nothing. How is it possible that it has worked? Let’s find out.
Timestamps:
00:18 The Coffee Can Portfolio
01:14 Origins of The Coffee Can Portfolio strategy
02:37 Why does it work?
03:32 Pfizer coffee can example
04:22 Extreme coffee can example
05:33 Importance of changing company lifespans
06:54 Coffee can strategy for 100 baggers
07:52 Even Warren Buffett has sold too early
08:40 Apple coffee can example
09:55 How long does it take?
Related episode:
100 Baggers: Returning $100 For Every $1 Invested https://youtu.be/fAARfZFO4Gs
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
11 min
October 20, 2022 Bill Ackman: When to Sell a Stock - Netflix Example (NFLX)
In a very recent interview, super-investor Bill Ackman was asked: what are the red flags for you to decide to sell a company, even at a loss? Ackman had two main points to his answer, but also answered in a good amount of detail. He used his recent sale of Netflix as an example, after only owning the stock for a few months, which is unusual for him. His second point came in the form of some advice for retail investors about when to sell a stock, using Tesla as his hypothetical example.
Timestamps:
00:30 A remarkable business
00:55 Netflix Undervalued?
02:23 Ackman's Netflix investment thesis
02:50 A reason to sell
04:10 Another reason to sell
04:55 Predictability and risk profile
06:26 Ackman's advice to retail investors: Tesla hypothetical
07:16 Thesis twisting is trouble
08:03 On making investing mistakes
Related episode:
Bill Ackman: Why NOW Is A Pretty Good Time To Buy Stocks https://youtu.be/krSnhsGfKoM
The Bill Ackman interview clips referenced in this episode can be found on the Interactive Investor channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/interactiveinvestoruk
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
10 min
October 17, 2022 Bill Ackman: Why NOW is a Pretty Good Time to Buy Stocks
Bill Ackman Interview: In a very recent interview, superinvestor and fund manager Bill Ackman, speaking about buying stocks in the current bear market, said “I think today is a pretty good time. It’s a pretty good point of entry”. In this episode, I delve into this and other important things Ackman said about investing today, including information on his current investing strategy and focus, his approach to stock picking, and his outlook on the macro economy.
Timestamps:
00:04 Ackman: Today is a pretty good time to buy
00:41 Ackman’s investing strategy
01:14 Impact of rising interest rates and inflation
02:52 Pricing power rules
04:21 Probability of coming recession
04:32 Opportunistic macro investing
05:02 Is Bill Ackman buying yet?
07:54 Super-high quality rules
08:31 Recent Ackman portfolio activity
09:27 Keeping cash in reserve
09:42 Is the current market cheap?
10:07 Pershing Square buybacks
The Bill Ackman interview clips referenced in this episode can be found on the Interactive Investor YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/interactiveinvestoruk
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
11 min
October 14, 2022 What the Start of Biden’s Fed Cannabis Legalization Means for Cannabis Stocks
Cannabis federal legalization has just taken a big step forward with a surprise announcement from president Biden to reschedule cannabis at the federal level, along with some other key cannabis policy changes. In this episode I explore what this means for investors, and what is likely to happen in the near future for publicly listed U.S. cannabis companies and their stocks.
Timestamps:
00:23 Cannabis stocks ripped higher on the news
01:23 Biden's important cannabis policy announcement
03:42 Rescheduling cannabis, not federal decriminalization, yet
04:24 No need to wait for SAFE Banking?
05:34 US cannabis companies uplisting to major stock exchanges?
06:28 Fair tax treatment for US cannabis companies
07:06 US cannabis company valuation arbitrage
08:02 Any more downside risk ahead?
08:57 How quickly will Biden move on cannabis?
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
12 min
October 11, 2022 Michael Burry Admits Feeling Greedy as Stock Market Crashes (Latest Deleted Tweets)
In his latest tweets, famed investor Michael Burry admits to feeling greedy as the stock market continues to fall. In this episode, I interpret Burry’s latest tweets, which can sometimes be cryptic. I also explain who Michael Burry is, what he means by "feeling greedy", and I consider whether the stock market is really crashing.

Related video:
Investor Jeremy Grantham: Super Bubble Enters Final Phase
https://youtu.be/tTFO3Qn5e20
Timestamps:
00:13 Who is Michael Burry?
00:37 What does Burry mean by “feeling greedy”?
01:08 The "It has always been this way before” tweet
01:48 Is the stock market crashing?
04:11 The “In 2021 I warned on the ALL THINGS bubble” tweet
05:52 The “ALL the silliness must go” tweet, 25 stock examples
07:20 Where’s the bottom of the market?
08:04 Burry's mid-late 2000 feeling - free cash flow on sale
09:25 The difference between now and 2000
10:27 “I admit I’m feeling greedy.” But…
11:11 “math problems that more or less must work out.”
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial help before making any investment decision
13 min
October 06, 2022 Mohnish Pabrai’s Micron Tech Investment Thesis and MU Q4 2022 Earnings Update
I discuss the latest FQ4 2022 earnings release from Micron Technology (MU), and a brief investment thesis for the company from investor Mohnish Pabrai. Micron Technology is in the business of designing and manufacturing digital memory and storage products for multiple industries.
Timestamps:
00:15 Micron superinvestors
00:55 Mohnish Pabrai’s Micron Investment Thesis
02:40 Mohnish Pabrai and Li Lu collaboration
04:32 Micron (MU) stock price history
05:52 Micron’s historical cyclicality
07:18 FQ4 Earnings highlights and summary
09:10 New U.S. manufacturing facilities
Related video:
Micron Technology (MU) Q3 2022 Earnings, Outlook and Mohnish Pabrai’s Investment Thesis https://youtu.be/0zG4fG3si5A
Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. This content is for education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and/or seek professional financial help before making any investment decision
14 min