On the eve of the Government’s big electricity market reform announcement this morning, I chatted in a ‘pop-up’ ‘Mini-Hoon’ with CTU Economist Craig Renney about a CTU proposal for the Government to use the gentailers’ dividends to buy back the privately-held shares in the 51% state-owned Meridian, Mercury and Genesis, if they chose not to build much more power generation capacity to stop rampant inflation.

Craig argues the gentailers chose to generate cash for dividends rather than invest in new renewable capacity for over a decade, which contributed to a sharp spike in prices and is causing energy poverty for households and de-industrialising what is left of Aotearoa’s industrial sector.

We spoke about the arguments for and against such a partial nationalisation, along with why electricity prices had risen and whether the RMA and the oil and gas drilling ban were factors.

I am opening up this video podcast to both free and paid subscribers immediately and in full. I view this as part of my public interest journalism mandate whereby paying subscribers support me to do the work and then make it much of it public, including on other media. Paying subscribers get early and deeper access to some of my work here and can comment. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to support this work.

Here’s the charts I referred to in the video above showing:

When dividends were paid instead of investing

Electricity output per capita since 2015

Electricity consumption by sector

Electricity prices indexed to 2015

Electricity generation vs GDP since 2015

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.com

Briefly for all today in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:

* The Lead: The Government announced new earthquake strengthening standards that redefined away $8.2 billion worth of strengthening work. It was widely welcomed by business owners, especially in provincial cities hit hard with empty old main street buildings sitting empty for years, unable to sell.

* The Sidebar: Donald Trump has just (re) announced a 100% tariff on movies made outside the United States. (Reuters)

* In the Quote of the Day, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway acknowledged the bank’s mandate (then) to support maximum sustainable employment was a factor making it difficult to start raising interest rates sooner in 2021, which might have reduced inflation sooner.

* The Chart of the day shows fresh jobs data for August, including a 0.2% rise for the month and a 0.7% fall for the year.

* The Number of the day shows total gross earnings grew slower than food prices, rents and electricity prices in August.

* The Deep-dive of the day is by Laura James for 1News about the housing crisis for families with disabilities.

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis below the paywall fold and in the full video and podcast above. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here and in my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room and can comment on articles.

‘Here’s some new standards to save us money’

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics and climate change.

This week’s special guests were primary school teacher Lucas Campbell and BusinessDesk Founding Editor Pattrick Smellie.

This week’s Hoon featured discussions about:

* Speeches by US President Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly in New York and China’s President Xi Jinping at the UN Climate Summit with Robert.

* Cathrine talked about President Xi’s pledge that China would cut climate emissions 7-10% by 2035 (Reuters) and this comment piece via Newsroom from Kevin Trenberth about the latest climate science, and the latest misinformation.

* Lucas talked about cirruculum reforms, teachers’ strikes and a 1% pay offer to teachers.

* Pattrick talked about this week’s Mood of the Boardroom survey on the cabinet’s performance and the appointment of a new Reserve Bank Governor.

* The ‘Skateboarding Dog’ item at the end was about this video via BlueSky showing a sperm whale eating a giant squid.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

I’m making the video above freely available to all free and paying subscribers as an experiment. If you like what you see, subscribe to the paid version of The Kākā to support this work being done in public.

Paying subscribers can see more analysis and detail below the paywall fold in the text and chart version published earlier today plus my Pick n’ Mix Six of today’s scoops and deep-dives elsewhere.

Paying subscribers can also comment on these articles and participate in The Kākā’s chat room. Subscribe to support my work covering and analysing Aotearoa’s political economy, which I make public through videos here, on YouTube, and through media appearances on 1News, RNZ & elsewhere.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.com

Briefly in my Picks n’ Mixes and Daily Chorus of the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Monday, September 22:

* 1News reports this morning Christchurch Hospital Emergency Department doctors have sent a letter to Health NZ pleading for more staff, funds and space.

* The doctors say they’re massively overloaded, often in code red and some patients wait so long they have to leave the ED, with one dying in the carpark.

* Both Labour and National Governments have pressed down on health funding as a share of GDP for decades in order to keep size of Government and debt under 30% of GDP, which has been the Treasury-led mantra for 30 years.

* Treasury says it’s more important to keep debt low, ‘in case of emergency’ and both Treasury Secretary Iain Rennie and Public Service Commissioner Brian Roche say the New Zealand Government is ‘at its fiscal limits,’ which they say means they have no choice but to refuse pay increases and refuse health, housing, education and transport capital investment requests.

* But New Zealand’s gross debt of around 45% of GDP is barely half the OECD average and the Crown’s full balance sheet picture including NZ Super Fund, ACC and other assets show the Crown has: net debt of 20% of annual GDP; 40% of annual Crown revenues; equity of around 43% of GDP; and the Government’s net interest bill of $2 billion a year represents a cost of 1.2% of annual revenue.

* Just imagine if you went to your banker to borrow money for a medical procedure to save a child’s life and said your current mortgage was worth 40% of your annual income and was currently costing 1.2% of your annual salary to service. Would you expect your banker to say no?

* Most first home buyers take out mortgages worth 500% of their salaries and initially have to pay over 30% of the salaries in interest costs.

* The Government is essentially saying it believes asking financial markets to borrow to properly fund our EDs and stop people dying in carparks is too risky because they fear financial markets saying no to a request to borrow more. That’s even though our interest costs are 1.2% of our income. And unlike a regular borrower, the Crown has the power to force everyone to pay it taxes.

* This belief that the 30/30 rule is both appropriate and so valuable it can’t be breached is not only wrong, it is essentially prioritising slightly lower borrowing costs and the resulting one or two basis points of lower mortgage rates over the lives of people dying in car parks. Surely overloaded EDs is the emergency a strong balance sheet is designed for?

* In my view, the Government choosing lower mortgage rates over healthier people, homeless people and more investment in future economic growth is a political choice. It is not a financial necessity. It’s also a sociopathic choice.

Paying subscribers can get more detail and analysis in the video and podcast above, along with analysis, charts and all my Picks n’ Mixes below the paywall fold. They can also comment and join our chat section.

My Picks n’ Mixes for Monday, September 22

My Top Pick n’ Mix Six

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics and climate change.

This week’s special guests were CTU Economist Craig Renney and Monopoly Watch’s Tex Edwards.

This week’s Hoon featured:

* The fall of US democracy;

* Israel’s invasion (again) of Gaza and whether New Zealand will recognise Palestine as a state;

* Australia’s new climate impacts forecast that 1.5 million will be affected by sea level rise by 2050 and its more ambitious climate target announced yesterday;

* NZ GDP falling an unexpectedly large 0.9% in the June quarter;

* The Government announcing the first reforms to competition law in 20 years.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Just briefly in our political economy today, two new surveys show both voters and business leaders are now blaming the current National-led Government, rather than the previous Labour Government, for an ongoing economic slump that worsened again in August.

There is more detail and analysis below, and in the video and podcast above. I have published a lightly-edited transcript of my video below. I’m able to do this work in public covering Aotearoa’s political economy because of support from paying subscribers. Please subscribe to ensure this work gets done and is available publicly. I have published this one immediately and in full for all to read, watch, listen and share because I see it as part of my public interest mandate. Paying subscribers can comment and get more detail and analysis earlier most days.

Voters & businesses now blame this Govt for stalling GDP

Today, I wanted to look at the economy part of the political economy, although they're very closely aligned, as you'll see in a moment.

To do that, I'm going to look at a couple of surveys that have come out in the last day and an opinion poll that has come out in the last couple of hours. In essence, for the last two years, there's been a debate about why the economy just can't seem to get going. When the government first came in, it blamed the previous government, the Labour government, for, it says, profligate spending, rising debt and rising interest rates, and not being able to control the cost of living or inflation. That was the narrative that dominated for the first year or so.

In that period, the government, particularly from November 2023 onwards, and more aggressively in early 2024, froze spending on investment in water networks, in various roads, railways, school buildings, new hospital plans, a whole bunch of things because the government was trying to restrict government spending growth and restrict government borrowing. The theory is this would allow the government to step back to shift the debt trajectory downwards from, it says, gross debt of over 40% of GDP, towards 30%, and also reducing the size of government from about 34 % of GDP towards that 30% mark again.

This is part of the overall fiscal strategy, which has been adopted by both sides of parliament over the last 20 to 30 years, of trying to get both the size of government and the size of gross debt down to around 30% of GDP. It is the North Star which dominates the government's actions in all sorts of ways. And in this case, the government chose to effectively tighten fiscal policy at the same time that the Reserve Bank had interest rates right at their highest point in nearly 20 years or so. And that is why the economy's in real strife.

But until now, the government's been able to blame the previous government and voters have on the whole blamed the previous government too. But that is changing. In the last few hours we've got a poll from RNZ through Reid Research asking the direct question, who do you think is responsible for the economy being so slow at the moment? And also we have two surveys from Business New Zealand showing that not only is the economy stalled again but that businesses themselves are starting to blame the government as well.

Voters now blame this Government, rather than the last one

So let's have a look at these surveys, starting with the RNZ Reid research survey that came out this morning. It asked the question: who do voters hold most responsible for New Zealand's struggling economy? And this found that 37.6 % found it was the current government that was responsible, while 30.8 % said it was the previous government. It mostly falls along party lines. If you look at who's blaming the current government, the Greens mostly, Labour and then Te Pāti Māori. Although interestingly, 9 % or so of National voters also blame the National-led government.

Who's blaming the previous Labour-led government? ACT and National voters. About 6.8% of Labour voters blame the Labour government. This means we are now seeing one particular measure that's taken in political opinion polls, the right track, wrong track measure, showing a significant worsening in the views about the government and the economy being on the wrong track. It happened through the winter.

A winter of discontent

You could call it a ‘winter of discontent’ as in the June quarter the economy went into contraction again after two quarters of somewhat rebounding growth. And that contraction in the June quarter has really undermined the government's narrative or view that the economy is bouncing back because of the government's actions.

And you can see correspondingly the right direction measure has dropped sharply. We're now at the point where the wrong direction measure is getting up towards the level seen before the 2023 election. And we also see in the actual polls that Labour is now ahead of National in this RNZ Reid research poll. That is in tune with what we've seen with other poll results recently, the Taxpayers Union Curia poll and also the Roy Morgan poll.

So what does this mean in Parliament? It all depends on whether or not Te Pāti Māori get all of their six electorate seats that they currently have. The party vote says they would only get five of their seats, not the six they currently have.

If they only got the five, Parliament would be completely evenly split down the middle, or 60-60. However, if Te Pāti Māori won all of their electorate seats, there'd be an overhang, and the grouping of Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori would have a one seat majority.

Business survey finds Government policy being blamed

Now, let's look at the next survey that's come out this morning from Business New Zealand, a survey of 130 business leaders asking them what their top five concerns are about the economy generally, and what their top five concerns for their own businesses are. For the first time in this Parliament, business leaders themselves are blaming reversals of government policies after the election, affecting business certainty. So obviously the abrupt repealing of three waters of the RMA reforms and various other measures sort of unwinding government policies. Not necessarily surprisingly, because many of these things were promised at the election, but the way it was done so abruptly, as well as that freeze in government spending at the end of 2023 and early 2024, have really riled up businesses and caused uncertainty.

They've also talked about the international environment, and it's interesting to see the level of customer demand is another factor that people think is a problem for the rest of the business community. And when you look at what people were saying last year, last year they were saying it was the high OCR and a lack of consumer demand that were the problems.

Now they're saying it's the government that's the biggest problem and those reversals of policies. When you ask them about their own businesses, they are still saying it's those reversal of government policies, but secondly, it's level of customer demand. When you look at some of the other areas like resource management constraints or gas costs, some of the things that the government's talking about, they are not an issue for those people in business.

Both PMI & PSI in contractionary territory

The other survey that's come out in the last day or two is the Business New Zealand PSI survey. This is the Purchasing Managers Index survey for the services sector. The services sector makes up more than 60% of the economy. This survey is a companion to the PMI survey, the manufacturer's version of this survey, which asks purchasing managers, what are they seeing in terms of new orders? What are they seeing in terms of what are they doing with employment? What are they seeing with their stocks? And what are they seeing with production?

So this are quite granular, detailed questions, which are less about what you think is going to happen or how you think things are going more generally. It's more a question of what's happened to your orders. It's pretty hard to make that stuff up. And it's also a very good leading indicator of what's happening in the economy.

Let's look first at the PSI survey. And that shows another fall in the last month in the contractionary territory. Anything that's below 50 is seen as contractionary. Anything above 50 is seen as expansionary. And what you can see there, of course, is some ups and downs in 2020 and 2021 to do with COVID. And then a slide down from mid-2022 on, as the Reserve Bank’s rate hikes started to take effect and the housing market slowed down.

Then from mid to late 2023, we've seen it drop well below the line and it stayed there. There was a rebound, but that stalled out. A sort of a dead cat bounce. And we've certainly seen that again in August. Now, in June, a couple of these surveys, the PMI and the PSI survey, were surprisingly weak. And that was one of the factors in the Reserve Bank cited in cutting interest rates again.

But in July, one of the surveys was in expansion again. And this was pointed to by the government as signs that finally the green shoots were appearing. Well, those green shoots have been burnt off in August.

You can see here from what's happened with the monthly numbers for this PCI time series that we've been in contraction for most of the last three years. And when you look at the PSI numbers across the regions and in different areas, all of them are below 50 meaning in contraction. And when you look around the country, it's all in contraction except for Canterbury (and at 50.3, it's barely in expansion).

This is exceptional. In the wrong way

So you may hear some people say, oh, well, this is what's happening all around the world. And there's not much we can do about that. We're a cork floating on the tide.

Well, actually, no. When it comes to our major trading partners - the Eurozone, the UK, China, Japan, USA, and Australia - all are above 50. The Eurozone is just a little bit above 50, the UK, the US, Japan are at around 53/54, and Australia is at nearly 56. We're at 47 and a half.

We're different and the reason we're different is that our monetary policy (the OCR), fiscal policy, and the government's actions to restrain spending growth, have all been much more contractionary, tighter than the rest of the world, even though our debt is lower.

And when you look at the combination of the PMI and the PSI, grouping manufacturing and services together, you can see the yellow line drops down again and is still below the long term average. If you look at the three month average and match that up with GDP growth, it's a pretty close correlation. So this says we are still in recession going into the middle months of the third quarter.

We're going to get numbers from Stats NZ on Thursday for GDP growth in the June quarter and what it's going to show, according to the current consensus of economists, is a GDP contraction of about 0.4%.

The Reserve Bank in its last set of forecasts forecast a 0.3% GDP contraction and the Reserve Bank's Nowcast measure, which is a constantly updated measure, is currently predicting a 0.2% contraction.

That will push back against the narrative put forward by the government that the green shoots are coming and we just need to wait a little bit longer.

Like waiting for Godot

It's interesting that Business New Zealand is starting to say this now and release these surveys. They're saying that the services sector is in a slump, they're using the word slump, and that it persists. That's in the release that came out yesterday. And for the first time, they're pointing to government policy uncertainty as a factor in the economy's slowness. Doug Steel, senior economist at the BNZ, points out there's now a very real risk that any ensuing bounce in the economy, which everyone's been expecting for 18 months, takes longer than expected to arrive. And this is becoming a real issue. The government really expected the economy would be growing quite strongly by election year, and it really is like waiting for Godot, it's just not arriving.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics and climate change. This week’s special guest Simplicity Chief Economist Shamubeel Eaqub .

This week’s Hoon featured:

* An initial discussion between Peter and Bernard about the death of Charlie Kirk and Rupert Murdoch’s ‘Succession’ deal with his children.

* A chat with Cathrine about the Climate Change and Business Conference this week, including a now-infamous panel session of MPs squabbling over who should pay for climate change.

* We referred to these articles from Marc Daalder on Newsroom and Anne Salmond on Newsroom. We also referred to Marks & Spencer’s ‘Plan A’ strategy to shift to 100% of its food coming from farms using regenerative practices by 2030.

* We spoke with Robert about Israel’s re-invasion of Gaza and Russia’s drone flights over Poland.

* We spoke with Shamubeel Eaqub about his State of a Thriving Nation 2025 report this week for the Business Leaders’ Health & Safety forum, along with his report with fellow Simplicity Economist Rosie Collins on the building and construction sector for the New Zealand Chinese Building Industry Association last month and his report with Rosie for the Helen Clark Foundation in April on social cohesion.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

A record-high 201 New Zealanders emigrated each day on average in the year to the end of July, with 58% going to Australia.

Australia’s labour market is now accelerating ahead of New Zealand’s stalled market, further widening the 30% wage premium over the Tasman and providing job openings there while there are none here. Both long and short term policy decisions by the New Zealand and Australian Governments and Reserve Banks have driven the widening gap over both the last 30 years, and the last two years in particular.

Australia introduced compulsory savings, kept strong unions and kept a capital gains tax on residential property. The Reserve Bank of Australia stayed focused on both jobs and inflation. New Zealand did none of that. Australia also emerged from Covid with lower interest rates and more expansive government spending. New Zealand did the opposite, hiking interest rates at the same time as a fiscal policy tightening.

Paying subscribers normally get more detail and analysis in the video and podcast above.But I have decided to open this one up immediately, given the public interest involved and thank paying subscribers in advance.

What’s driving record-high emigration to Australia

A record high 73,400 New Zealand citizens migrated permanently in the year to July, with 58% going to Australia. That averages out at 201 per day, enough to fill an A320. Each day.

Even after the emigration of New Zealanders, there was actually a net migration gain overall of 13,100, thanks to the arrival of 140,500 new mostly-young workers, predominantly from India, China, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Fiji and South Africa.

Thirty years of Australia’s faster productivity and real wage growth than New Zealand underpin the latest exodus of a net 94,500 citizens in the last two years. There was combined net emigration of 319,200 between 2002 and 2013, averaging at 26,600 a year over that period, before a relative slowdown to 5,700 a year between 2013 and 2019.

Australia reformed its economy more carefully in the late 1980s and early 1990s, choosing to bring in compulsory pension savings and keep strong unions, while New Zealand gutted worker protections and left tax incentives in place favouring residential property investment over investment in real businesses.

Over the last two years, Australia’s macroeconomic policies have favoured faster GDP and employment growth, thanks to a more moderate interest rate policy in tune with expansionary fiscal policy at a federal and state level.

New Zealand did the opposite, running very tight monetary policy in tandem with a tightening of Government spending growth. Those short term factors revived a further widening of the wage gap of around 30% and means Australia’s unemployment rate is about one percentage point lower than New Zealand’s.

I have included the charts below in my presentation in the video above. They are from this excellent note by Westpac NZ economist Satish Ranchod.

Timeline-cleansing nature pic of the day: Spring sprung

Ka kite ano.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in my Picks ‘n Mixes and Daily Chorus on Wednesday, September 10, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:

* To justify continued health sector wage and hiring restraint, the Government has repeatedly argued New Zealand’s health spending was actually higher than similar OECD countries as a share of GDP, having risen during Covid.

* But a fresh report from Auckland University health finance experts shows the argument is specious, being based on 2018 data and including GST, when fair comparisons with other countries don’t include GST.

* The report also argues that the current Government’s shift towards more privately provided and financed health care is most likely to increase overall costs.

* Elsewhere in the news this morning: Shane Jones wants to look at nationalising the power gentailers; the Government is looking at removing ‘third parties’ from its own fast-track process; lower manufacturing volumes led BNZ to forecast a 0.5% fall in June quarter GDP; and, Chris Hipkins has backed off suggestions of a higher inflation target for the Reserve Bank.

Paying subscribers normally get more detail and analysis in the video and podcast above, and all my Picks n’ Mixes below the paywall fold. But I have decided to open this one up immediately, given the public interest involved and thank paying subscribers in advance.

Chart of the day: The pressure of sinking lids

Picks n’ Mixes for Wednesday, September 10

My Top Pick n’ Mix Six

* The Scoop of the day is from Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$ (gift link): Treasury paper Govt tried to hide says 'accept a lower level of public service'

* The Column of the day is from Audrey Young for the NZ Herald-$ (gift link): Luxon coup talk and why rolling a PM is far harder than it sounds

* The Deep-dive of the day is from Laura Walters for Newsroom: Treasury warns Govt about increasing cost of its tough on crime policies

* The Op-Ed of the day is by Health academics Jenny Carryer, Andrew Jull, Nicolette Sheridan for The Post-$: Community health, patient safety under increasing threat. Nurse leaders being silenced by organisational policy.

* The Doc of the day is from the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, which commissioned a report from Tim Tenbensel and Paula Lorgelly from the University of Auckland titled: NZ health financing and expenditure: A comparative and historical review 2000-2023.

* The Sign of the Times news of the day is via Emma Andrews for RNZ: Australian marae gains $1m from Australian government

Scoops & Breaking news this morning

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$: Shane Jones wants to consider re-nationalising power companies in energy shake-up

* Laura Walters for Newsroom Pro-$: ‘Frustrated’ ministers ready to accelerate fast-track Govt wants to restrict expert panels from calling ‘third parties’

* Glenn McConnell for Stuff: Tens of thousands spent on PM’s mountain trip

* Ethan Manera for NZ Herald-$: James Cameron sought David Seymour's help to try to speed up citizenship bid

* Phil Pennington for RNZ: Why NZ's new maritime helicopters cost $400m each Australia recently paid $82m each for the same choppers.

* Laura Walters for Newsroom: Surcharge ban is ‘Cost of living virtue signalling’

The Best of the Rest

Politics & Geopolitics

* Glenn McConnell for Stuff: Ministers want ‘Kiwi values’ pledge. Luxon not keen

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Adopting Australia's inflation target 'insane economic illiteracy,' says Willis

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$: Chris Hipkins hoses down discussion on Labour tolerating higher inflation

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Willis says not releasing texts about Orr's resignation met transparency expectations

* Lillian Hanley for RNZ: Labour back to drawing board after by-election defeat

* Anna Whyte for The Post-$: Marshmallows, briefly banned, are back in hospital cafés after minister’s intervention

* Deep-dive by Julie Jacobson for The Post-$: A TOP dog, or is The Opportunities Party forever doomed to ‘zombie’ status?

Economy, Business, Media & Tech

* Sam Smith for Stuff: Government set to launch new ‘major events’ fund

* David Hargreaves for Interest: June quarter manufacturing slump signals possibly bigger than expected GDP fall

* Zane Small for Stuff: 10,000 fewer jobs in three months: Is a ‘recovery’ really underway? Auckland lost 4828 jobs in the three months to June.

* Garth Bray for BusinessDesk-$:IRD property sector blitz finds $228m in unpaid tax

* Column by Duncan Greive for The Spinoff: Sean Plunket now stands alone on his Platform and Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Post-$: ‘Changes' planned at long-running Metro magazine amid ‘tough times’

* Erik Frykberg for Interest: State-owned Pamu allows farmers to buy equity

* Tom Pullar-Strecker for The Post-$: Cost of work deaths tops $1b as report finds links with poor productivity. Business Forum report.

Housing, Transport & Infrastructure

* Nick James for RNZ: Nationwide $1.4b ticketing system delayed by a year

* Amy Ridout for Stuff: Why did a council asphalt a road cone into the footpath?

* Anne Gibson for NZ Herald-$ (gift link*): Three new Mt Eden blocks up to five levels, 135 apartments

* Column by Simon Wilson for NZ Herald-$ (gift link): Why do people think Joni Mitchell wanted housing sprawl?

* RNZ: Landlord crammed tenants into caravans, garages and a bus

* Natalie Akoorie for RNZ: 11 months, $38,000, and still no consent for granny flat

* RNZ: 'This is a game-changer' - New trains on way for lower North Island

Councils

* Joel MacManus for The Spinoff: The mayors, the media man and the mystery shrouding Upper Hutt’s election

* Sarah Curtis for The Northern Advocate: Far North council exodus: 219 staff in three years, grievances cost $1.27m

* RNZ: Two mayors to be elected unopposed in local government elections

* David Williams for Newsroom Pro-$: Queenstown approves cableway project

Poverty, Health, Education, Living Costs, Incomes & Crime

* Maxine Jacobs for The Post-$: ‘The human cost of institutional failure’: Māori dying younger and sicker. Māori are 25% more likely to die from cancer than non-Māori, more than twice as likely to die from cardiovascular disease, and continue to receive inequitable health care, an iwi health monitoring report says.

* Emma Ricketts for Stuff: ED like a ‘mass casualty situation’: Are this year’s winter lurgies abnormal? Amid a late spike of winter illness, St John says there has been “unprecedented demand” for ambulances.

* Deep-dive by Rebecca Macfie for Newsroom: Tea, scones, and justice A report on a different kind of solution for young offenders. It’s not a boot camp.

* Explainer by Nik Dirga for RNZ: Why our police don't wear body cameras

* Op-Ed by for Otago Uni’s Rose Crossin & Laura Joyce for Newsroom: Government ‘prioritising alcohol industry over health’ The Government’s decision to reverse its support to limit the trading hours of off-licences, and stop communities objecting to alcohol licences won’t reduce alcohol harm.

* Melissa Nightingale & Azaria Howell for NZ Herald: A third of Wellington ED patients treated in corridors, where 10% more people die, business case shows

* RNZ: Tackle food insecurity at home before exporting: Salvation Army report

* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Hundreds of thousands charged late fees for power

* John Gerritsen for RNZ: Polytechnics had double the students a decade ago

* Hanna McCullum for The Post-$: Uni energy grant uptake more than triples

Climate & Environment

* Deep-dive by Fox Meyer for Newsroom: Who Benefits: How a tiny charity rewrote NZ’s environmental law

* Henry Cooke for The Post-$: Government still mulling methane target, with coalition partners yet to agree

* Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro-$: Climate minister encourages calling out dairy industry

* Pattrick Smellie for BusinessDesk-$: Watts to challenge gentailers on 2026 'energy security'

* Rob Stock for The Post-$: Climate minister calls emissions targets ‘solid’ amid criticism of low ambition. Simon Watts mounted a tame defence of current emissions policies, in speaking to an audience that was clearly wanting more.

* Column by Rob Stock for The Post-$: Trump’s policies could add 0.2 degrees to peak climate change, and nine other takeaways from this week’s Climate Change and Business conference in Auckland.

* Lochlan Lineham for NZ Herald: 'Huge step': Researchers score $3m to turn waste products into sustainable foods

* Rob Stock for The Post-$: Hipkins teases Labour’s emissions-reduction ambitions.

* RNZ: Playing 'I-spy' with urban emissions

Docs of the day

* Stats NZ published data on the performance of core non-trading activities of New Zealand's territorial and regional councils in the June quarter.

* Rabobank and KiwiHarvest published their annual Food Waste Survey for 2025, finding New Zealanders are wasting less of their food than two years ago.

Cartoon of the day: Rebranded

Ka kite ano. Bernard

PS: My apologies for this email not being sent yesterday. I am travelling at the moment and will be back to a more normal schedule tomorrow.

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