Briefly for all subscribers, the key things to know from Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Tuesday, July 22 are:

* Inflation figures have confirmed the Government’s economic strategy is failing, with the economy sinking into stagflation just over a year out from the next election. See more below in The Lead and in the podcast above.

* Unlike after previous big rate-cutting cycles, the housing market is not firing up and business investment is stalled. That’s because bank lending is restricted and house sales are frozen in the headlights of prices being 10-20% below their peaks. See more below in The Lead and in the podcast above.

* Environment Canterbury (ECan) has approved dairy conversions for over 15,000 additional cows in six months, Charlie Mitchell reports in a scoop for The Press-$ this morning. See more in Climate Picks ‘n’ Mixes below.

* There are just 153 families getting the maximum FamilyBoost payment, OIA queries by Labour have found. Via NZ Herald. See Numbers of the Day below.

* Today’s Chart of the Day is via Ganesh R Ahirao from his substack post about how Effective Marginal Tax Rates on families receiving income-tested benefits such as Working For Families and the Accommodation Supplement are now up over 97% in some cases.

* Today’s must-read from Eloise Gibson for RNZ about climate change risks for home owners: Can households really assess their own risk? See Picks ‘n Mixes below

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

The Lead: When relying on rate cuts alone doesn’t work

Inflation figures yesterday from Statistics New Zealand have confirmed the Government’s strategy of relying on tight budget policy, tax cuts for savers and lower mortgage rates for homeowners, in order to fire up the housing market and then economic growth, just isn’t working.

Instead:

* inflation is rising back towards 3% later this year from 2.5% early in 2025, with prices of ‘essentials’ ie food, rent, rates, electricity and petrol rising twice as fast as disposable income for renters;

* GDP is falling, with the RBNZ’s NowCast forecast seeing a 0.3% contraction in the June quarter;

* the housing market is stalled, with house prices falling and taking an average of 48 days to sell, nine days longer than the average since 2008;

* mortgage rates have stopped falling, thanks to higher global interest rates and financial market views there are only one or two more OCR cuts to come;

* employment is still falling; and,

* business investment is now so weak that banks have not lent any net new money to non-landlord businesses and farmers since May last year.

It worked before. Why not this time?

PM Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis bet on a strategy that cuts in Government spending growth would take inflation pressure off the Reserve Bank, encouraging deeper cuts in the Official Cash Rate, which would in turn boost household spending, business investment, employment and the housing market, as it has before. It may have helped the RBNZ cut 225 basis points in a year, although the bank itself is noncommittal on the scale of the help from fiscal policy. Also, the Government itself has increased a swathe of fees and charges, along with triggering big rates increases by freezing capital grants to councils.

Regardless, the strategy is failing because:

* the housing market is not firing up, despite 225 basis points of rate cuts;

* business investment is flat because renting households, who don’t save, are cutting spending in the face of real wage deflation; while,

* those on higher incomes benefitting from tax breaks and high term deposit rates are simply increasing their savings.

Indicative of the savings glut depressing spending in shops and on building sites and hardware stores, household term deposits have risen by $25 billion to $262 billion since the election in 2023. They are up from $184 billion just before Covid hit. That fact is the most surprising for any believing ‘there is no money’ and ‘everyone is suffering through a cost of living crisis. Young renters are doing most of the suffering.

To cap it off, business investment has stalled because of a lack of consumer spending by those spending 100% of their income. When landlords see rent inflation has stalled, along with house sales volumes, and so they don’t want to or can’t gear up more to buy more homes or build more, they:

* put more money into term deposit accounts or repay debt;

* don’t spend it in shops and hardware stores.

Why this time is different

The Government’s strategy is conventional and has worked to lift GDP after past recessions and rate-cut cycles in 2001/02, 2008/09, 2015/16 and 2019/20. But this time:

* there are tougher Reserve Bank capital restrictions on banks;

* there are lending restrictions on both first-home buyers (LVRs) and rental property investors (DTIs) (There were no LVRs and DTIs or tougher bank capital requirements in 2001/02, 2008/09 and 2019/20), and,

* this time house prices are substantially below their previous peaks and not forecast to hit record levels again for as much as nine years since the 2021 peak, while the 2008/09 gap between peaks was barely three years.

And unlike the past National-led Government from late 2008 to 2017, this one has cut Government investment spending on roads, hospitals and schools, and delivered tax cuts that benefited savers more than renters and homeowners with big mortgages. The last National-led Government steered away from big Government job cuts and tightening benefit indexation when it was elected. It also promised to avoid the ‘Mother of All Budget’ benefit cuts of 1991 and pledged big new road spending. It also added to the fiscal stimulus in the wake of the Canterbury earthquakes in 2010/11.

Instead, this Government embarked on restructures and thousands of public service job cuts as soon as it was elected, and immediately froze new spending and infrastructure planning for public housing, roading, council grants and new hospitals. The idea was this would allow the RBNZ cut the OCR more and faster.

The money is not circulating

The trouble was the current Government also depended on those cuts firing up a surge of lending into the housing market to increase sales volumes and the flow of cash around the economy. That didn’t happen this time because sellers wanted to wait for house prices to rebound, and buyers weren’t able to easily borrow more.

Depending on rate cuts to create economic growth has left the Government as a hostage to Reserve Bank capital and lending rules, both of which are not expected to change much pre-election, without much more aggressive intervention by Willis.

It is also hostage to a housing market where prices could remain below their peaks for a decade, freezing in place those sellers who would normally use fresh record-highs to extract equity and either upsize or downsize into new homes.

Quote of the day: Real spending and GDP pressure

“If GDP is to pick up meaningfully then household consumption has to rise. With effective real disposable incomes under so much pressure there is very little chance of an increase in real spending.” BNZ’s Stephen Toplis in his CPI note

Chart of the day: A 97% tax rate

Numbers of the day: 900, 153 & $470 million

* Rafaella Melo for Hawkes Bay Today: 900 women waiting, but doctor can’t help

* Julia Gabel for NZ Herald: 153 families get maximum FamilyBoost credit

* Cameron Smith for NZ Herald: KiwiSaver Hardship withdrawals hit $470m

My Pick ’n’ Mix Sixes for Tuesday, July 22

Politics

* Adam Pearse for NZ Herald-$: RBNZ chair denies conflict of interest\

* Paula Penfold for Stuff: Justice appointee resigns after Stuff reveals flawed CV

* Neil Sands for Law News: Minister adopts Uber’s wish-list

* 3News via Stuff: Willis blames ‘rainbow toilets’ as inflation hits 12-month high

* Op-Ed by Mike Smith via Melanie Nelson’s substack: :NZ for Sale: What the Overseas Investment Act changes really mean.

* Op-Ed by Auckland Uni’s Jane Kelsey for The Conversation: Why has a bill to relax foreign investment rules had so little scrutiny?

Economy & Business

* Sky Network TV says it is buying Discover NZ (TV3) for $1

* Scoop by Mandy Te for Interest: Research sheds light on how NZ's uber rich achieve offshore secrecy

* Michael Morrah for NZ Herald: Greyhound racing: TAB may cover rehoming under new laws

* Brian Easton for Interest: The reality of fiscal constraints

* Andy Haldane for FT-$:Fiscal populism’ is coming for central banks

* Monique Steele for RNZ: Mars, Nestlé bankroll Fonterra's low-emitting farmers

Housing

* Frances Chin for The Post-$: Greens look to rates system to relieve residents, target landbankers. Mayoral candidate Alex Baker and the Green Party have independently come up with near-identical policies targeting landbanking.

* Deep-dive by OneRoof: Has NZ’s next leaky building crisis already begun?

* Anonymous for The Spinoff: Why can’t we ever finish anything? A council planner at their wits’ end. The government’s recent directive is a 'massive sucker punch', writes one council planner.

* NZ Herald: A third of new builds in Auckland are failing final inspections

* Deep-dive by Nicholas Pointon for NBR-$: Land lease communities an Australian phenomenon. Australian land lease communities would seem a natural fit in New Zealand, so why aren’t they?

* Lane Nichols for NZ Herald-$: Key report ‘wasn’t requested’ — vendor.

Transport, Infrastructure & Councils

* Nick James for RNZ: Can the national ticketing project get back on track?

* Matt Lowrie for Greater Auckland : Auckland Transport have released their latest work studying the impacts of a potential congestion charging scheme.

* Column by Hayden Donnell for The Spinoff: Better things… are… possible?What is this strange feeling? Could it be hope? About Auckland?

* Column by Joel MacManus for The Spinoff: The government’s misleading case for rates caps.

* Zita Campbell for LDR via NZ Herald: Gisborne does not back LGNZ campaign against rates-capping

* Tina Law for The Press-$: Unpopular changes to busy Christchurch roundabout actually worked, new report says

Poverty & health

* NZ Herald: New research points to growing poverty crisis

* Hikitea Ropata for E-tangata: ‘Why are there more vape shops than GPs in my suburb?’

* Gabi Lardies for The Spinoff: Curtain banks are in hot demand. Curtains are the most used intervention by the Healthy Homes Initiative.

* Dr Oz Mansor on his substack: More measles. Three weeks of notifications; Hydatid case; Pertussis national epidemic; and winter illness.

* Anna Leask for NZ Herald: 'Not sick enough for help': Endometriosis patient ‘rejected’ by public health system

* Dr Bex via her substack: Accessible public toilets are important, basic infrastructure. Pushing back on the "woke nonsense" foolishness.

Climate

* Matt Whineray interviewed by Eloise Gibson for RNZ: Chair of panel behind climate change report on govt buyouts says they never meant to suggest there should be no Government help

* RNZ: 'Great Rides' need double the money to keep running smoothly

* Max Frethey for LDR via RNZ: Kaiteriteri beach's water rating downgraded after 'alarm' level test results

* RNZ: Waitangi Tribunal pushes pause on seabed mine claim

* Peter de Graaf for LDR via 1News: Ten years of boiling water in Kāeo: 'They just can't rely on' it

* Op-Ed by Peter Meihana, Corey Hebberd & Shaun Paul Williams for The Spinoff: Rising seas threaten to swallow one of NZ’s oldest settlement sites – new research

Docs of the day

* CPAG report: Families below the Income Floor face growing crisis – new research

* The Investor Group on Climate Change: The Financing Australia’s Corporate Climate Transition report finds disconnect between ambition and reality.

* Stats NZ: Annual inflation at 2.7 percent in June 2025

* Transpower: Designing a future grid blueprint. First consultation document

* Post-cabinet news conference video via RNZ

* RNZ: Four-day work week reduces burnout and improves job satisfaction - study

Cartoon of the day: In the right direction?

Ka kite ano, Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly for all subscribers, the key things to know from Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Monday, July 21 are:

* The Government tried to paint a $6 billion announcement on infrastructure yesterday as new news that would boost the economy and jobs. It isn’t. See more below in The Lead and in the podcast above.

* PM Christopher Luxon visited the Tasman region over the weekend, having earlier said the Government couldn’t afford climate relocation bailouts, which Labour Leader Chris Hipkins agreed. Luxon announced the Government would instead pay $5 million for a rain radar for Nelson, 10 years after hydrologists asked for it and not part of a much more useful national network of radars, which Governments of both flavours have also said they won’t pay for.

* The Quote of the Day is from John Key telling the Reserve Bank to cut 100 basis points. See the full quote below.

* More than 20,000 people have applied for 500 jobs at Ikea’s first New Zealand store due to open in Auckland later this year. See Number of the Day below.

* The Reserve Bank’s real-time NowCast for the June quarter found in its latest weekly update on Friday a larger GDP contraction of 0.2883 % from the March quarter, up from 0.2462% the previous week. See more in The Chart of the Day.

* Today’s must-read is from Aaron Smale via 1News: Haunting memories: new doco explores horror of growing up in 'care' in NZ. See more in my Picks ‘n Mixes below

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

The Lead: Performative politics in high viz

The Government announced what appeared to be $6 billion in fresh infrastructure spending yesterday, but it turns out much had already been previously announced, and some of the total was still vapourware, as this caveat in the statement made clear:

“This list excludes a small number of significant projects which will begin construction before the end of 2025, but cannot yet be named for a range of commercial reasons. The value of these projects is included in the $6 billion total. Announcements will be made about them in the coming weeks and months.” Chris Bishop.

They key report to check when assessing if the Government is increasing infrastructure spending or not is the Treasury Crown Accounts for the latest month. That shows commitments are down nearly $3 billion from last year.

The other document to check is Budget 2025’s Economic & Fiscal Outlook (page 53), showing falling capital investment over the next four years.

Further reading: RNZ: Govt accused of recycling projects in $6b infrastructure push

Quote of the day: Key tells RBNZ to cut

“Interest rates are too high. I don’t want to sound like Donald Trump telling off Jerome Powell but they should be 100 basis points lower. You could argue there’s inflation. But, seriously, there might be a little bit of food inflation, but it’s very little. Fuel inflation isn’t much. And there’s certainly no wage inflation. And even if there was, I’d trade a bit of inflation to get the place going.” John Key via Chris Keall for NZ Herald: Why John Key believes interest rates are stifling NZ growth

Number of the day: 40 people apply for each job

40 to 1 - Rob Stock for The Post-$:At least 20,000 people applied for 500 jobs at Ikea’s soon-to-open Auckland store.

Chart of the day: GDP contracting again

My Pick ’n’ Mix Sixes for Monday, July 21

Politics

* 1News: 'Many' link Govt's emergency housing policy to homelessness rise - minister.

* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald-$: Damning NCEA briefing raises alarm as Govt mulls future of national qualification

* Todd Niall for Newsroom: Auckland mayor’s top executive liquidating personal firm owing $570k

* Davina Zimmer for Newsroom/The Detail: The Ministry of Health's alcohol problem

* NZ Herald: MP who oversaw Treaty Principles select committee wants fresh look at public submissions process

* Deep-dive by Phil Smith for RNZ’s The House: Parliament versus Executive: Regs Review and the Regulatory Standards Bill

Economy & Business

* Andrew Bevin for Newsroom: A former fisheries observer, who spent 12 days in fear for his life after turning down a bribe, believes cameras need to be put on deep sea vessels to avoid a repeat

* Tom Pullar Strecker for The Post-$: Government cools supermarket competition expectations. Willis says “we have to be realistic”

* Solutions column by Simplicity CEO Sam Stubbs for The Sunday Star Times-$: Should banks pay windfall taxes? Increasingly, I think “yes”.

* Column by Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$:Government ponders radical power reforms as prices rise

* Explainer by Nik Dirga for RNZ: Why New Zealand First wants to require businesses to accept cash

* Liam Rātana for The Spinoff: We keep measuring the Māori economy – but what are we actually counting?

Housing, Infrastructure & Councils

* Caroline Williams for Stuff: Million-dollar mud: $13m spent on flood-damaged homes in sought after Auckland suburb

* Tom Raynel for NZ Herald-$: Nick Mowbray's vision for cut-price homes - and when company could launch

* Op-Ed by Paula Southgate for The Waikato Times-$: Hamilton’s booming — but rates are rising and funding’s broken. Can we afford the city we’re becoming?

* Michael Daly for Stuff: Why this MP wants a new law to ‘hold boarding house landlords accountable’

* Mildred Armah for Stuff: ‘We’re a very straight flat’: Queer migrant on house-hunting struggles

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Govt move to scrap 'four wellbeings' could undermine council stability - officials warn

Poverty & health

* RNZ: Christchurch Hospital asks patients' families to help cover short staffing

* RNZ: The Stolen Children of Aotearoa uncovers chilling history

* RNZ: Will Working for Families changes leave people worse off?

* NZ Herald: Financial mentors warn of $300m debt risk in family payment changes

* Jimmy Ellingham for RNZ Checkpoint: Taupō clinicians plan for emergency hospital shutdown amid critical staff shortages

* Ayla Yeoman for SunLive: Doctors alarmed by whooping cough surge

Climate

* Morgan Edwards for his substack New Economic Management : NZ’s alarming new climate adaptation framework is alarming and morally reprehensible

* RNZ: ECan chair rebuffs government's directive to stop planning

* Marty Sharpe for Stuff: Nondescript paddocks home to a few sheep soon to house $50m solar farm

* Alexia Russell for Newsroom/The Detail: Real people, real lives, right now - the reality of climate change

* Katy Jones for The Nelson Mail-$: Council can’t engineer flood risk away, riverside landowners told

* Hawkes Bay Today: Sensors for real-time flood alerts installed

Docs of the day

* Housing and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop’s statement: Infrastructure projects to drive jobs and growth

* Retirement Commission: Qualitative and quantitative research with more than 1,450 New Zealanders aged 65 and over, Older People’s Voices 2024 Part 2, explores income, decumulation behaviour and expenditure in older age.

* Video via RNZ: Watch: Govt trumpets billions being spent on infrastructure

Cartoon of the day: Where did you go?

Timeline-cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano, Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Earlier this week I interviewed Mark Wilkshire, the CEO of the Co-operative Bank, from his Wellington office.

We talked about:

* the current situation in the economy and housing market;

* how changes to capital requirements for banks is affecting the bigger and smaller banks, and the need for a level playing field;

* the effects of the renewed Loan to Value Ratio restrictions and the new Debt to Income multiple controls;

* how the new Deposit Compensation Scheme is progressing, including how there’s been a pick-up in term deposit savings at The Co-operative Bank; and,

* how banks and insurers are assessing the effects of climate change.

Chapters

* 00:00 Introduction to the Cooperative Bank

* 02:49 Current Economic Climate and Customer Sentiment

* 05:50 Capital Requirements and Regulatory Changes

* 09:01 Lending Controls and Their Impact

* 11:48 Deposit Guarantee Scheme and Market Changes

* 14:55 Extreme Weather Events and Climate Risks

* 29:59 Future of Banking in a Changing Environment

The transcript of the conversation is above and I welcome comments below from subscribers.

cheers

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman and special guest Helen Clark about the news of the week.

This week’s Hoon featured:

* a discussion about research showing East Asia’s cleanup of its atmosphere has accelerated climate warming.

* a discussion about how New Zealand might respond to an American suggestion we commit to helping to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

* Bernard mentioned this deep-dive article about urban planning.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly for all subscribers on Friday, July 18, the key scoops, breaking news, deep-dives, editorials, analysis and other news links in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate today are:

* Politicians are scrambling for excuses and scapegoats over a fresh surge in living costs in recent months, ranging from a 46.5% rise in butter prices from a year ago, a 10.4% rise in household electricity prices, and a 12.2% rise in council rates. See more below in The Lead and hear more in the podcast above.

* The Government ramped up its attacks on rates increases this week, although councils say they had to hike so much because the Government cut and froze funding for local roads, water and public transport, and keeps adding new things they must do. See more in The Sidebar below.

* Despite the inflation being generated from international commodity prices or Government and monopoly-administered prices, both of which are unable to be changed by local interest rates, the Reserve Bank’s decision last week to bluntly hold rates because of this latest inflation spike shows how broken the economy’s operating system is. Monetary policy is increasing unemployment pointlessly and unfairly. See more in The Chart of the Day below the paywall fold.

* The Quote of the Day below is from a farmer in the Tasman region mystified and distraught about the two one-in-hundred-year floods he has seen this month. For the umpteenth time, the article he was quoted in did not mention the role of climate change in making such floods more frequent and extreme.

* Today’s Number of the Day illustrates just how stalled our housing market is, which is making homeowners feel less wealthy and gumming up the cashflows that usually pulse through our housing-market-with-bits-tacked-on economy. The number of listings pulled from the market in June has more than tripled since June 2021 to 3,800, as Greg Ninness reports for Interest.

* Today’s must-read is from a prominent publisher of climate change news and analysis globally. Royce Kurmelovs writes for Drilled: How New Zealand Is Quiet Quitting Climate Action. See more in my Picks ‘n Mixes below the paywall fold.

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

The Lead: ‘It’s not our fault. It’s your fault’

Stats NZ reported yesterday (see more below in Docs of the Day) food price inflation more than doubled in the month of June to 1.2% from 0.5% in the month of May. The annual food price inflation rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4%.

Butter prices rose 46.5% in June from a year ago. Cheese prices rose 30%. That’s despite wholesale dairy prices rising 15.7% over the same period on globaldairytrade.

That dairy inflation was on top of a 10.4% rise in consumer electricity prices in June from a year ago and a 12.2% rise in council rates in the March quarter from a year ago (the June quarter numbers are due on Monday).

Both the Government and councils have been at pains to blame each other this week at the Local Government New Zealand conference over the rates increases. (See more below in my Picks n’ Mixes.) Meanwhile, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she’ll make a ‘please explain’ visit to Fonterra next week, and she continues to talk tough about increasing competition in electricity, banking and supermarkets.

Energy and Local Government Minister Simon Watts also trumpeted the Electricity Authority’s decision this week to force the gentailers to offer better prices for power used off-peak and for solar power sold back into the network. That was after he introduced the Local Government (System Improvements) Amendment Bill to try to force Councils ‘back to basics.’ He’s also looking at capping rates, although ACT, strangely, now seems opposed to that and is more interested in rebating GST on building materials back to Councils.

In my view, all this deflection and finger-pointing is performative. The cause of the council rates increases and the Government’s own many increases in fees and charges is its decision to freeze and cut capital grants to councils for water, roads and public transport, along with its own freezes and cuts in investment spending. Both of these are in service of the Government’s North Star: reducing deficits and borrowing to try to lower mortgage rates.

Talk about an own goal

The irony is the Reserve Bank stopped cutting rates last week because it was worried about the very ‘administered inflation’ caused by the Government’s decision to essentially pull forgone capital spending and debt servicing costs into day-to-day goods and services inflation. Capital spending and interest costs aren’t measured in the Consumer Price Index, and therefore are ignored by the Reserve Bank when they rise or fall. The Reserve Bank can’t ignore ‘administered’ price increases that come as a result of the freeze in capital spending.

Here’s how the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee explained its reluctance to cut rates last week (bolding is mine):

“Inflation is expected to increase further in the June and September quarters, towards the top of the MPC’s inflation target band. The near-term increase in inflation is due to a pick-up in food prices and elevated administered price increases.” RBNZ statement.

The Sidebar: The poor and the young pay the price…twice

The Reserve Bank’s independence and a (renewed) single focus on keeping annual CPI inflation between 1-3% means it feels it has no choice but to keep interest rates high, in order to increase unemployment to reduce domestic spending pressure on prices.

Its use of the OCR is incredibly blunt, particularly when bank lending is now fully into the housing market. Banks have not lent any net new money to businesses and farmers since Covid. They are now completely dedicated to servicing home owners. The only way the Reserve Bank can influence the economy is remotely through household spending by homeowners. It means homeowners actually experience more living cost inflation when the Reserve Bank tightens monetary policy.

Tighter monetary policy designed to lower inflation actually increases living costs, but it’s not measured in the CPI because interest costs are not included. That tighter monetary policy is also responding to international commodity prices and prices administered by Governments and councils for their own reasons. Changes in the OCR have no chance of changing inflation from these sources.

Not only is monetary policy blunt in how it works, it works to redistribute income from young borrowers to old savers through higher mortgage rates paying for higher term deposit rates. It also makes it harder for the young to make money through work. Higher unemployment and slower economic growth hit graduates and young, new and inexperienced workers hardest.

Chart of the day: These are global prices

Quote of the day: ‘I had no idea’

“I don't really want to know what's happening. If it comes back through here I might start looking for another job. I’m not 300 years old and it’s supposed to be a one-in-100-year flood. We’ve had two in two weeks.” Andrew Fry via Nadine Roberts for Stuff: ‘All I can do is hope’: Farmer fears another flood may end his career

Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Friday, July 18

* Rob Stock for The Post-$:At least 20,000 people applied for 500 jobs at Ikea’s soon-to-open Auckland store.

* Farah Hancock for RNZ: Hijacked website filled with AI-generated 'coherent gibberish'

* Tuwhenuaroa Natanahira for RNZ: Benefit sanctions surge by 27%

* Yasmeen Serhan for Reuters: UK playwright James Graham on why the 2008 crash still defines our politics

* Charles Marohn for Strong Towns: The Infrastructure Conversation I Didn’t Expect in New Zealand

Scoops and breaking news here and overseas this morning

* Cecile Meier for BusinessDesk-$: Simmonds bins official advice on waste policy

* Laura Walters for Newsroom Pro-$: Seymour will allow changes to flagship bill but won’t reveal what’s on the table

* Guyon Espiner for RNZ: Cancer warning labels on Kiwi wines

* NZ Herald: Measles spreads beyond Wairarapa, 6 locations of interest in Feilding

* Alice Peacock for Newsroom: Wellington mayoral candidate ordered to pay worker $28k in wages and compensation for humiliation

* Reuters: UK to lower voting age to 16 in landmark electoral reform

Politics, geopolitics, economy, business & tech

* Jonathan Milne for Newsroom: Govt to explore sharing GST with councils next year

* Bridie Witton for Stuff: ‘I want genuine competition’: Minister to speak to Fonterra as butter price surges

* Stephanie Ockhuysen for RNZ: Plan to scrap agriculture courses sparks backlash

* Lillian Hanley for RNZ: ACT, NZ First cast doubt on capping council rates

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Fears up to 285 more staff needed to make Seymour's bill work

* Liam Ratana for The Spinoff: David Seymour blames karakia for high power bills. Here’s what he gets wrong.

Housing, Transport, Infrastructure & Councils

* Maria Slade for BusinessDesk-$: Supply of new homes misaligned with what buyers want

* Anne Gibson for NZ Herald: 'We're saying no' – house-building boss on timber price hikes

* David Hill for LDR via RNZ: Councils complain huge rate rises result of government rules

* Bella Craig for RNZ Checkpoint: 'Mark your own homework': Healthy Homes checks under fire

* Jonathan Leask for Stuff: Push for regions to keep and spend road tax money

* David Hill for LDR via RNZ: Councils blindsided by government call to halt planning work

* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: The return of the property investor - but why?

Health, Poverty, living costs, work, education, justice & crime'

* John Gerritsen for RNZ: Fears of spike in poorer students leaving school without qualifications

* Libby Kirkby McLeod for RNZ: Toi Ohomai closure will 'condemn another generation to poverty'

* Jimmy Ellinghman for RNZ Checkpoint: Auckland mental health facility Segar House to close

* Op-Ed by Sheffield Uni’s Matthew Hobbs, Auckland Uni’s Chris Sibley, Canterbury Uni’s Elena Moltchanova and Waikato Uni’s Taciano Milfont for The Conversation: Is our mental health determined by where we live – or is it the other way round?

* Rachel Helyer Donaldson for RNZ: Health researchers, MPI clash as study finds campylobacter cases have surged

* Sanda Arambepola for Stuff: Wellington sushi restaurant fined for exploiting ‘vulnerable’ migrant worker

Climate, water, land, air and environment

* Alexia Russell for Newsroom/The Detail: Real people, real lives, right now - the reality of climate change

* RNZ: Families still isolated in parts of Motueka Valley after floods

* Libby Kirkby McLeod for RNZ: 'Deliberate and sustained': Forestry operator fined $112k for pollution

* Monique Steele for RNZ: Farmers and council at odds over management of Tasman's flood-hit Upper Motueka River

* Tony Wall for Stuff: A sudden exit at Molesworth Station, amid a plan to plant the very pest they’ve been fighting

* Op-Ed by Sustainability Council Executive Director Simon Terry for Newsroom: Radical genetech bills ignores global standards at Kiwi producers’ peril

Good news & solutions

* Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro-$: Solar farms in investment pipeline could triple NZ’s power capacity

* Nick Stride for Interest: Comcom final decision scales back card fee savings

* Lillian Hanley for RNZ: Law change letting workers talk about salaries likely to pass RNZ: Consumer watchdog moves to lower debit and credit card surcharges

* Craig Ashworth for RNZ: Homegrown health workers fill Taranaki gaps

* RNZ: Devastating rain brings silver lining for winter power supply

* Julia Gabel for NZ Herald: Lake Alice redress pool grows by $7 million as more survivors than expected are deemed eligible for payment

Docs of the day

* Treasury: Expenditure strategy: estimates of the medium-term consolidation required to achieve the fiscal strategy (OIA-20250450)

* MSD Benefit Fact Sheets: June 2025 quarter report

* Stats NZ: Selected Price Indices June 2025: Food prices increase 4.6 percent annually

* Local Government New Zealand Electoral Reform Working Group final paper: ‘Refreshing our grassroots democracy.’

* RBNZ announces six month delay in licensing of deposit takers to 30 November 2028 due to its current review of bank capital settings. Updates to DTA implementation timeline and standardsDeposit Takers Act

* Infometrics doubles GDP growth forecast to 2%

Cartoon: If only we could eat bitcoin

Ka kite ano, Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly for all subscribers on Thursday, July 17, the key scoops, breaking news, deep-dives, editorials, analysis and other news links in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate today are:

* Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka is delaying the release of a regular Housing and Urban Development Ministry (HUD) report on homelessness, saying he wants more advice. Labour is calling for its release, Stuff reports this morning. See more below in The Lead and and hear more in the podcast above.

* A charity wanting to house homeless people kicked out of Rotorua shopping centre by new beat cops and the Rotorua Lakes Council is now having to hide its housing pods (see pic below) because the Council wants to charge for a consent. See more below in The Quote of the Day.

* Queenstown has 22 hospital beds that were built for 4,500 people. There are now 80,000 people living in the district. See more below in number of the day.

* Today’s Chart of the Day shows the retail recession started before then-Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr told shoppers to ‘cool your jets’ in November 2022.

* Today’s must-listen is the interview Julie King from Love Soup in Rotorua gave RNZ Checkpoint last night See more below in Quote of the day.

* A story to make me smile came out of the Waikato Times-$ today. Kākā come calling: Rare native parrots spotted across Hamilton. See more Good news and solutions in the Pick ‘n’ Mixes below.

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

The Lead: Potaka delaying homelessness data release

Tama Potaka is withholding a regular ministerial report on homelessness and Labour have called for its release.

“Everyone is saying that homelessness is going up at unprecedented levels,” Labour’s housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. “Given that he is the only one - alongside the prime minister and the minister of housing - that is denying homelessness is going up, I’m not surprised he’s reluctant to release the report.”

Potaka received the latest homelessness insights report from HUD last month, part of a regular six-monthly series monitoring the effects of government housing policy to reduce the number of people living in emergency housing through toughening the entry criteria.

But he has yet to make the document public, saying he is still seeking official advice on its contents, although he has acknowledged anecdotal evidence pointed to a rising trend. Via Bridie Witton for Stuff.

Further reading this morning on housing supply and government data releases:

* NZ Herald-$: Reoffending won’t be publicised during future bootcamp

* 1News: Decision to halt planning work 'blindsided' councils.

* David Williams for Newsroom: Govt winds up council reform storm

Quote of the day: Rotorua to charge for consents for homeless pods

Julie King from Love Soup told RNZ’s Checkpoint wanted to use the pods for homeless people in Rotorua, but was being blocked by Rotorua Lakes Council.

“Particularly with the terrible weather that we've been having, we've had some streeties going to hospital with pneumonia... then they're not getting proper sleep.

King said the pods being placed in a secret location was due to a number of reasons, but was not being helped by council wanting to charge consent fees.

"We met with them and they were more concerned about paying consents rather than helping. I know they're trying to remove them from the CBD, but you can't shuffle them from one corner to the next without solutions." Julie King via RNZ

Number of the day: Built for 1/20th of the population

22 hospital beds for 80,000 people - Queenstown's Lakes District Hospital was built in 1988 for 4500 people, so its 12 inpatient beds and 10 emergency department beds were not enough for 80,000 people there now, says Jez Leftley. Via Katie Todd for RNZ

Chart of the day: Freezing our jets

Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Thursday, July 17

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Warning of $60m-a-year price tag for Seymour's bill

* Alexa Cook for RNZ: ETS incentivising whole farm conversions

* RNZ: '200 years of debt': The cost of leaving abusive relationships

* Mandy Te for Interest: 'Reset the market rules': EA

* Alice Peacock for Newsroom Pro-$ Govt’s $100m polytech property sell-off

* Maria Slade for BusinessDesk-$: Failed developer owes $80m

Scoops and breaking news here and overseas this morning

* Matt Nippert for NZ Herald: More than half of CRH loans deemed at-risk

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$: Labour calls for free cancer tests

* Ethan Manera for NZ Herald: String of leaders left Wellington Chamber of Commerce before CEO’s abrupt exit

* Azaria Howell for NZ Herald-$: Religious texts to be shredded.

* RNZ: Charter schools told to keep enrolment numbers secret

* Chris Keall for NZ Herald: 'Tell your friends': Competition watchdog chairman defends advocacy of Uber rivals

Politics, geopolitics, economy, business & tech

* 1News: Retail crime advisory group costs $500k in three months.

* RNZ: Class action against two major banks offers to settle for $300m

* RNZ: Lifting ad restrictions will enable medical conferences in NZ - Seymour

* Sudima’s COO for NZ Herald-$:I managed four MIQ hotels. It was a shambles

* NZ Herald-$: Small businesses concerned over access to new investment boost

* Phil Smith for RNZ’s The House: Parliament’s big changes to employment law

Housing, Transport, Infrastructure & Councils

* Kelly Makiha for Rotorua Post-$: 'Stay on your side of the Bombays': Rotorua developer's swipe at Auckland firms

* Op-Ed by Building Officials Institute CEO Nick Hill for The Post-$: Building reforms should target the problem

* Op-Ed by Paula Southgate for The Waikato Times-$: Hamilton’s booming — but rates are rising and funding’s broken. Can we afford the city we’re becoming?

* Katie Todd for RNZ: Hospital workers sleeping in cars to try secure a car park

* Op-Ed by Auckland Uni’s Clare Dale for The Conversation: As house prices drop, will the retirement nest egg still be such a safe bet?

* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Is it worth paying a real estate agent to sell your house?

Health, Poverty, living costs, work, education, justice & crime

* Anna Whyte for The Post-$: ACC halts rollout of sexual violence prevention plan.

* Amy Williams for RNZ: Children sleep on chairs, family eats meals of only rice

* Gill Bonnett for RNZ: Fears electronic tagging of migrants 'going to get huge'

* NZ Herald: 'Sustained period of cruelty': Starship doctor slates agency failings

* Steve Kilgallon for Stuff: Immigration adviser banned after charging ‘grossly excessive’ fees for fake jobs at husband’s company

* The Press-$: Schools call for funding fix as Govt scraps open-plan classrooms.

Climate, water, land, air and environment

* Mary Afemata for RNZ: 'It's a lose-lose': Family says 'yes for now' to buyout

* Column by Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro-$ (free tomorrow): Seven-month delay shows gas ban repeal isn’t PM’s top priority

* Stuff: Compulsory time of use plans for electricity to provide ‘better options’

* Op-Ed by Waikato Uni’s Paula Blackett and Canterbury Uni’s Tom Logan: A warning from the future: the risk if NZ gets climate adaptation policy wrong today

* Michael Sergel for NZ Herald: The regions most at risk in future flood damages

* Max Rashbrooke for The Spinoff: Where do I send conservatives the bill for climate change?

Good news & solutions

* Mind the Gap co-founder Dellwyn Stuart for Newsroom Pro: The Remuneration Authority uses comparators to set pay for MPs. So why not for nurses & teachers?

* World Biogas’ Charlotte Morton: Can gas from food scraps fill an energy void?

* RNZ: Getting hands on with science creating 'good scientific citizens'

* Shanti Mathias for The Spinoff: How reforesting the Port Hills could help prevent another devastating fire.

* 1News: NZ leads world in solar storm preparedness, say ex-NASA centre boss.

* Op-Ed by Calgary Uni’s Farnaz Sheikhi and Farhad Maleki: How AI can help protect bees from dangerous parasites

Opinion, Columns, Op-Eds and Editorials

* Op-Ed by PHCC: Prolonged epidemic from chicken meat needs strong response

* Joel MacManus for The Spinoff: Chaos on Courtenay: Inside Ray Chung’s unruly, incomprehensible campaign rally

* Column by Duncan Greive for The Spinoff: Have we lost the art of the argument?It’s a whole-of-politics problem, but is more vexing for the left.

* Column by Hayden Donnell for The Spinoff:Weird men are driving people out of politics. Their smear campaigns are ham-fisted and grotesque, but they work

* Column by Susan Hornsby-Geluk for The Post-$: Siouxsie Wiles vs Auckland Uni - paying the price of litigation.

* Editorial by NZ Herald-$: Beds for kids: An appeal we shouldn’t need

Docs of the day

* Speech by RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop to LGNZ

* ComCom Chair John Small’s LinkedIn post suggesting alternatives to Uber

* Electricity Authority: Improving pricing plan options - Decision paper

* Electricity Authority:Requiring distributors to pay a rebate when consumers supply electricity at peak times - Decision paper

* Financial Ombudsman Service release on its annual statistics.

* Treasury: Advice and analysis prepared on the taxation of charities

Cartoon: Roadblock at the crossroads

Ka kite ano, Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly for all subscribers on Wednesday, July 16, the key scoops, breaking news, deep-dives, editorials, analysis and other news links in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate today are:

* Chris Bishop said yesterday he wanted to break the nation’s psyche and belief that the economy could only grow if rising house prices were increasing household wealth. He said that’s why he wanted to free up land and change zoning and building rules to increase housing supply, so that owning and renting could be more affordable. See more below in The Lead and Quote of the day, and hear more in the podcast above.

* The trouble is his initial actions in cancelling 212 Kāinga Ora projects to build 3,479 homes has shattered the construction sector’s momentum, forcing hundreds of firms into liquidation and 17,000 builders out of the industry and/or country. Recruiters and builders report the situation is as bad as the early 1990s. See more below in my Top Six ‘Pick ‘n’ Mix.

* To reinforce that Bishop is saying one thing, but has done another, the EBOSS annual survey published this morning found two-thirds of builders reporting they were significantly affected by housing project suspensions or cancellations. See more below in Chart and number of the day.

* Today’s must-read is Simon Wilson’s column in the NZ Herald-$, which laments Bishop’s cancellation of Kāinga Ora’s programme to build 1,527 new homes in Auckland, which has 795 families registered as homeless: ‘So much has been stopped. So little is happening.’ See more below in Top Goods News of the day.

* The Reserve Bank says an ageing population will lower interest rates in the long run. See more in Docs of the day below.

* In climate news, a new paper finds China’s massive cleanup of air pollution has, paradoxically, worsened the warming of the climate because more sunlight is now getting through clearer skies to heat the planet. See more below in Docs of the day.

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

The Lead: ‘I want to change the economy’s DNA’

Housing and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop has ramped up his rhetoric about changing the nature of Aotearoa-NZ’s economy from being a housing market-with-bits-tacked-on. He said yesterday (see more in Quote of the day below) he wanted to “destroy the idea” the economy needed house price inflation to grow. In many ways, he’s saying the quiet thing out loud about the idea central to our political economy by saying he wants to change it. Here’s the Quote of the Day:

“We've got to decouple the idea that the economy is linked to house price growth. It's not.”

“Destroying the idea that the New Zealand economy should just be based on house price growth is a fundamental formula this government is trying to embed into the New Zealand psyche and also into the arteries of the economy. It will take some time, but I'm pleased with the process we're making.

“It frustrates me that, every time you open up some of the media outlets , there's a huge interest in things like, housing market yet to take off, and everything's characterized as: we need house prices to rise.” Housing Minister Chris Bishop quoted by Dan Brunskill for Interest:

But he’s not changing it. He’s reinforcing it.

The trouble is the idea is infused into the psyche of the economy because it’s true. The even bigger trouble is voters and businesses can see the Government’s strategy and actions of prioritising lower public-debt-funded infrastructure spending in order to lower mortgage rates actually reinforces and rewards that psyche. It amplifies the message for investors that the main way to wealth is to buy residential-zoned land, leverage it up with mortgages, and then bank the outsized and tax-free capital gains from land price appreciation.

The collective value of residential property nationally is the $1.64 trillion fact at the heart of our $420 billion a year economy. Our stock market is worth one-ninth of our housing market and about 40% of GDP. That’s not normal. Australia and the United States have housing markets and stock markets worth about one to two times GDP. New Zealand’s housing market is worth nearly four times our GDP. This chart shows how our housing market has raced up relative to GDP and our stock market since the early 1990s.

Saying one thing and doing another

The other problem is Bishop and the Government are doing the exact opposite of creating a housing supply shock to ‘break the psyche.’ It is prioritising deficit and debt reduction to reduce interest rates, which means it has either frozen or is reducing the infrastructure spending needed to increase housing supply.

That’s evident in reports back today from builders and construction industry recruiters, as reported by Blayne Slabbert at The Press-$ this morning:

Josh Galuszka, a senior consultant at Key Skills Recruitment with more than 20 years in the trade, said the past six months had been the hardest of his career.

“This is really horrible. The last six months are the worst six months we’ve seen … so many people leaving the industry.

What makes this downturn different, Galuszka said, is the absence of large-scale public investment to cushion the blow, something that has traditionally supported the sector during economic slowdowns.

“Governments tend to get involved. Infrastructure and education and health all has construction elements to it,” he said. “But what's happened is this government hasn't done that. They've just pulled the pin on everything. Kāinga Ora is gone.”

He compared it to the deep cuts of the early 1990s: “People that I know … in their mid 60s … they're like, ‘This is as bad, if not worse, than that.’” Galuszka via Blayne Slabbert for The Press-$: Building slowdown cuts deep, wiping out 17,000 jobs.

It was also evident in the EBOS survey released this morning, as one builder quoted in the report said:

“It is proving very difficult to manage effective forward planning as projects confirmed previously are continuously being moved out. We have confirmation of three projects due to start now delayed 4 months and we’re now left scrambling for fill-in work.”

Chart of the day: Net pessimistic

Number of the day: Less than half capacity

24% - The EBOSS survey (page 17) found 24% of the 431 builders surveyed in May said they were operating at less than half capacity, up from 21% being at less than half capacity in 2024 and 5% in 2023.

My Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Wednesday, July 16

* Jonathan Milne for Newsroom: Supermarkets impervious to bad headlines & fines

* Blayne Slabbert for The Press-$: Building slowdown cuts deep, wiping out 17,000 jobs.

* Kelly Makiha for Rotorua Post-$: 'Hiding from the council': Rotorua's secret pod shelter for homeless

* RNZ: Labour, National both look for flood buyout fix

* RNZ: Foodstuffs North Island taken to court over alleged 'cartel conduct'

* Dan Brunskill for Interest: Ageing population will push interest rates lower, RBNZ says

The best of the rest

Scoops and breaking news here and overseas this morning

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$: Brown defends cancer screening rollout with full implementation not until 2029

* Oliver Lewis for BusinessDesk-$:High Court deals blow to flats once opposed by Luxon

* Andrew Bevin for Newsroom Pro-$ (free tomorrow): Cheap Chinese peaches on Govt’s menu once again

* Pattrick Smellie for BusinessDesk-$: Aussie and NZ line up on bank fee chop proposal

* RNZ: Medical Council to fast-track registration for overseas doctors

* Marine Lourens for The Press-$: Health insurance booming despite soaring premiums as public sector condition worsens

Politics, geopolitics, economy, business & tech

* RNZ: Police not concerned about Australian efforts to recruit officers

* RNZ: Parent resident visa review brought forward

* RNZ: Auckland's problems a 'hangover' from Labour, Luxon says

* RNZ: 'It really is hard for older job seekers to find work at the moment'

* Column by Luke Malpass for The Post-$: Support for the PM & Coalition parties stronger in Auckland than the rest of NZ

* 1News: Luxon tells off Seymour over letter to United Nations

Housing

* Greg Ninness for Interest: House Price Index falls four months in a row

* Bernard Orsman for NZ Herald: How a $2.15m home dropped to $50k; plan for flood-damaged Akl properties revealed

* Bill Hickman for RNZ: Tenants in illegal boarding house told to hide from inspectors

* RNZ: Building industry hopes for eventual upturn

* Op-Ed by property investor Nicole Lewis for Stuff: What if you could use KiwiSaver to buy an investment property?

* Nikki Preston for OneRoof: Homeowners taking out low-interest green loans warned on break fees and rate hooks

Transport, infrastructure & councils

* RNZ: Auckland more dependent on cars, less density than its peers, report finds

* RNZ: New bill will remove wellbeing provisions to 'refocus' councils - Minister

* Tim Murphy for Newsroom: State of Wayne’s Auckland: No easy fixes

* Jonathan Milne for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Plummeting participation in council elections ‘a threat to democracy’

* Duncan Greive for The Spinoff: Auckland’s annual report card is out again – and its grades have barely budged. The marginal improvements are more than cancelled out by some big drops.

* Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Post-$: $295 billion reality check for Auckland growth. The city is set to gain 520,000 more people in 30 years and a big infrastructure bill looms

Health

* RNZ: Health insurance crunch prompts call for tax break

* Rowan Quinn for RNZ: Auckland's public hospitals at the 'upper limit' of capacity

* Lucy Xia for RNZ: Increase in patients at acute clinics as winter illnesses surge

* Jim Miller for Waatea News (audio): Whooping cough taking hold

* Amanda Gillies for RNZ/Newsroom: A win-win-win over medical waste

* Ruth Hill for RNZ: Vaccine hesitancy growing in at-risk communities

* Dr Gary Payinda on his substack: Patients in Storage Rooms? The 'David Seymour Effect' may be trickling down

Poverty, living costs, work, education, justice & crime

* Emily Ireland for LDR via 1News: Funeral directors say the WINZ Funeral Grant of $2,616.12 doesn’t even match the burial fees imposed by councils

* Lyric Waiwiri-Smith for The Spinoff: Te Pūkenga loses over $80m in funding, 855 staff ahead of disestablishment.

* Doug Sail for The Press-$: Lawyers battle to reach inmates

* Column by Madeleine Chapman for The Spinoff: The cost of living crisis is over – this is just our reality now. We are participating in mass delusion by insisting we are still in a 'crisis'.

* Danielle Zollickhofer for Waikato Herald: Mayor says Tokoroa campus closure would condemn locals to poverty

* Jenée Tibshraeny for NZ Herald-$: Tax break? Govt urged to make it cheaper for employers to provide health insurance

Climate, water, land, air and environment

* Op-Ed by Reading Uni’s Laura Wilcox and the Center for International Climate and Environment Research in Oslo’s Bjørn Samset for The Conversation: Cleaner air in east Asia may have driven recent acceleration in global warming

* Jesse Mulligan interview with Bernard Hickey on RNZ Afternoons: Weather reporting and why climate change hasn't been mentioned

* Column by Lianne Dalziel for Newsroom: Now we’re paying attention, how should we manage retreat?

* Column and podcast by Terry Baucher for Interest: Te wiki o te tāke: Climate adaptation will involve huge costs

* Mandy Te for Interest: Five-year average cost of natural disasters to insurers $952 million per annum - Forsyth Barr

* Gabi Lardies for The Spinoff: Protest or court? The war against private helipads plots its next move.

Good news & solutions

* CityVision release: Project K decision a triumph for community voice

* Stuff: Cheaper, greener, more Māori: Council vows to buy local

* Greg Hurrell for BusinessDesk-$: Startup Bloxx offers lifeline to frustrated homebuyers

* Op-Ed by Ernie Newman for The Post-$: The unbundled grocer is a serious opportunity for our supermarkets

* Ian Llewellyn for BusinessDesk-$:Biogas a missed opportunity

* Dita de Boni for The Post-$: Auckland Council raises $250m - as long as it plants a million trees. The council has already raised nearly $4 billion from green bonds.

Docs of the day

* Real Estate Institute data on house sales and prices for June: REINZ Monthly House Price Index - June 2025

* Paper in Nature East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming

* Reserve Bank special report: The Grey Wave: Exploring the impact of an ageing population. By Enzo Cassino and Anoushka Divekar

* ComCom release: Commerce Commission to file proceedings against Foodstuffs North Island and Gilmours, alleging cartel conduct

* A new paper from Taiwanese medical researchers via JAMA: New diabetes and weight loss drugs could be reducing the risk of dementia and stroke

* Cook Islands National Superannuation Fund announcement: Adrian Orr Appointed to CINSF Board

Cartoon: ‘You said what?’

Timeline cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly for all subscribers for at 7 am on Tuesday, July 15, the key scoops, breaking news, deep-dives, editorials, analysis and other news links in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate today are:

* The services sector joined the manufacturing sector in contracting in June, a new BusinessNZ-BNZ survey found yesterday. BNZ downgraded its Q2 GDP forecast to a contraction after the surveys. Stats NZ also reported yesterday another 0.2% fall in total spending with electronic cards in June, which means retail sales have fallen 7.5% in inflation-adjusted terms in the last two years. See more below in Charts and Docs of the day, and in the podcast above.

* Perhaps ironically, Singapore reported better-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter yesterday, after its Government expanded construction spending on housing. The Government has slashed spending on new housing in the last 18 months. See more below in Docs of the day.

* As BNZ Economist Doug Steel wrote yesterday in the Quote of the Day: “The timeline for New Zealand’s long-awaited economic recovery just keeps getting pushed further and further out.”

* Today’s scoop of the day is from Cécile Meier, who reports for BusinessDesk-$ this morning that the School Lunch Collective has started using a 25% cheaper offal mince blend for school lunches, without telling anyone. See more below in my Top Scoops of the morning.

* Jessica Roden also had the scoop last night for 1News on Nelson Hospital creating ghost appointments to meet a Government target to reduce waiting times. See more in Top Six Pick ‘n’ Mix below.

* Today’s good news story is from Eloise Gibson at RNZ on the surging use of bicycles. See more below in Top Goods News of the day.

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

My Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Tuesday, July 15

* Investigation by Cécile Meier for BusinessDesk-$: From prime to offal: Cheap cuts in school lunches

* Investigation by Guyon Espiner for RNZ: Alcohol guidelines outdated and 'understate risks', update halted after lobbyists complained

* Scoop by Jessica Roden for 1News: Nelson Hospital accused of making 'ghost' appointments for patients.

* Rowan Quinn for RNZ: Auckland EDs overloaded, patients diverted to clinics

* Evie Richardson for RNZ’s Checkpoint: 'Real strain': Student nurses, midwives on workload, financial pressure

* Laura Walters for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Scrapping census could compromise infrastructure planning

The best of the rest

Scoops and breaking news here and overseas this morning

* Thomas Manch for The Post-$: PM’s department confirms job losses

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$: Minister considers compensation for Bitcoin ATM ban

* Sam Sachdeva for Newsroom: NZ to block corporate lawsuit rights in Asia trade deal

* Tim Murphy for Newsroom: RNZ reviving a national news wire as it aims to be journalism’s cornerstone

* Kate Macintosh for The Post-$: 2300 Ministry of Education learning support staff to strike. Intervention teachers, psychologists and child safety staff will be among those walking off the job over a pay and conditions offer they say is “miserly” and does not address their concerns.

* RNZ: Auckland not keeping up with international standards in key areas - report

Politics & geopolitics

* RNZ: 'Won't be able to keep bailing out': Luxon on future floods

* Scoop by Eloise Gibson for RNZ: Space Minister Judith Collins goes to ground over NZ's first space mission

* RNZ: Aussie police recruiters say they're just making sure Kiwis know their options

* RNZ: Tāmaki Makaurau by-election to be held in September

* Lyric Waiwiri-Smith for The Spinoff: 30 things I learned from 30 hours of Regulatory Standards Bill hearings. Even our politicians forget to turn the mute button off/on. It’s not just you.

* RNZ: Ray Chung's 'vile' email condemned across the political spectrum

Economy, business & tech

* Rob Stock for The Post-$: People oppose law change to protect ANZ and ASB: Poll. The majority oppose the Government’s retrospective law change to limit compensation the banks would pay in a court case, claims a poll by Curia.

* David Hargreaves for Interest: 'Timeline for NZ's recovery just keeps getting pushed further out'

* Dita de Boni for The Post-$: Golden visa money may outpace the investment options in NZ

* Nichole Lewis for Stuff: Should KiwiSaver be opened to investment property?

Column by Brian Easton for Interest: Is progress progressive?

* Greg Ninness for Interest: National median rent declines after almost 18 months of stagnation

Housing, transport, infrastructure & councils

* Oliver Lewis for BusinessDesk-$: NZ lags behind Australia on freight strategy

* Robin Martin for RNZ: 'Totally unfair': New Plymouth residents on proposed water charge changes

* Connor Sharp for GreaterAuckland’s substack: Project K is gonna be OK. It's Groundhog Day, but in a good way: the recommended plans for the area around the Mercury Lane CRL station are almost entirely a return to the original goals of the project: to create people-friendly spaces and reduce or indeed remove rat-running through the area.

* Shilpy Arora Gaikwad for Stuff: Lost income, missed meetings, late pickups: The toll of this ‘endless’ waterworks project

* Op-Ed by Vic Uni’s Dr Emina Kristina Petrović for Newsroom: Should the building industry keep using this controversial material?

* Justin Wong for The Post-$: Wellington councils deliver election-year warning on costs and rates. Hutt Valley, Porirua and Kāpiti councils give notice before the election that rising costs, ageing infrastructure and years of underinvestment mean tough choices lie ahead.

Health

* Louisa Steyl for Southland Times-$: Resident doctor fears health staff will ‘pour out to Australia’. Space constraints in Southland Hospital’s emergency department are forcing staff to take “borderline dangerous” measures to keep patients flowing, a doctor says.

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald: Health NZ hires thousands more nurses and hundreds more doctors – is it enough?

* RNZ: Hospice cuts patient numbers: 'We are so desperately sorry for the unavoidable suffering'

* RNZ: Care home residents subjected to violence, intimidatory acts

* 3News via Stuff: Watch: NZ's drinking guidelines underestimate health risks, alcohol expert says

* Op-Ed by Curtin Uni’s Nicole Lee and Sydney Uni’s Katinka van de Ven for The Conversation: Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking

Poverty, living costs, work, education & crime

* Tuwhenuaroa Natanahira for RNZ: Probe into police use of 'alternative action' for youth offenders

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: A 'disaster for regional New Zealand' - union slams disestablishment of Te Pūkenga

* Deep-dive by Amelia Wade for The Post-$: Is 50 the new 60? Older workers battle algorithms to get CVs seen

* NZ Herald: HelloFresh pleads guilty after ‘subscription traps’ tricked customers

* Stuff: Former tax agent sentenced for $95k Covid loan fraud

* Editorial for ODT-$: Home and away as Australia beckons

Climate, water, land, air and environment

* Catherine Hubbard for The Press-$: Motueka orchardist begs for immediate action from politicians

* Nina Hindmarsh for the Nelson Mail-$: Biblical flooding leaves Dovedale cut off

* Brett Kerr Laurie for The Press-$: The cleanup after the worst flood in living memory'

* Op-Ed by Mike Joy, Marnie Prickett, Marie Doole and Simon Hales for Public Health Communication Centre: Government cannot achieve “enduring freshwater policy” by siding with narrow commercial interests

* Delphine Herbert for RNZ: The harrowing moment a Moteuka farmer's wife got swept away in floodwaters

* Op-Ed by Copenhagen Uni’s Klaus Bruhn Jensen and Semahat Ece Elbeyi Can you trust climate information? How and why powerful players are misleading the public

Good news & solutions

* Eloise Gibson for RNZ: More city cyclists get on their bikes - but there is untapped demand for more

* Rob Stock for The Post-$: Flood-resistant Auckland stilt houses win architecture prize. Hundreds of homes were red-stickered after the 2023 Auckland flooding - now four students have come up with a winning idea for housing that will survive a deluge.

* NZ Herald: The Kiwibank chair who is also a priest: ‘There’s more to life than the corporate world’

* Northern Advocate: The Good Drop: Warehouse, Salvation Army team up for textile recycling

* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: A radical tax plan to avoid an economic 'car crash'

* RNZ: Electrick Kiwi seeks solar deals'

Docs of the day

* BusinessNZ-BNZ: Survey of Services sector in June

* Stats NZ: Electronic card transactions: June 2025

* Committee for Auckland’s State of the City report for 2025 published this morning.

Cartoon: ‘Who, me?’

Timeline cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly for all subscribers for at 6am on Monday, July 14, the key scoops, breaking news, deep-dives, editorials, analysis and other news links in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate today are:

* Another slash catastrophe unfolded over the weekend in the Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman region as the second ‘one-in-one-hundred-year’ flash flood in two weeks unleashed a torrent of pine forest waste, forming dams and wiping out homes and a campground. See more below in my Top Six ‘Pick ‘n’ Mix’.

* However, yet again, none of the storm coverage by RNZ, NZ Herald, 1News, The Nelson Mail-$ or the The Press-$ mentioned climate change. One Stuff article purporting to explain the floods also didn’t mention climate change. The blame is now focused, again, on the pine forest industry, which avoided major changes after inquiries into the Cyclone Gabrielle storm. See more below in my Climate Pick ‘n’ Mix. I spoke with Jesse Mulligan on RNZ Afternoons about this on Monday. It was broadcast on Tuesday.

* Large and small electricity consumers have launched a new campaign for electricity market reform. See more below in my Top Six ‘Pick ‘n’ Mix.

* The Government is awarding new work rights to try to bring in an extra 30,000 students a year. Meanwhile, an editorial in the NZ Herald and a column by the editor of the Sunday Star Times-$ argue against using cheap temporary workers to juice economic growth and disguise a hollowing out of Aotearoa-NZ. See more below in my Top Six and Politics Pick ‘n’ Mixes.

* Donald Trump is threatening 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico to start from August 1. See more in Scoops and breaking news this morning below.

* Today’s must-watch is an interview with two doctors on 1News’ Q+A with Jack Tame about the risks of privatisation of our health system.

Paying subscribers see more detail, analysis and commentary below the paywall and in the podcast above, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

My Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Monday, July 14

* Jack Tame for 1News’ Q+A: Electricity market concerns outlined in new campaign. The coalition of groups says the current system is failing to provide sufficient electricity generation.

* Jack Tame for 1News’ Q&A: Doctors warn private health moves risk a US-style systemFounders of the Canterbury Charity Hospital, Dame Sue Bagshaw and Dr Phil Bagshaw, are opposed to moves to shift more operations to private providers.

* Mary Argue for RNZ: 'Flash-flood' devastates small community in Motueka Valley

* Jenee Tibshraeny for NZ Herald-$: Willis wanted tighter Budget access. Finance Minister’s secretive lockup plan sparked controversy.

* Editorial by NZ Herald-$: Using immigration as a primary tool to drive economic growth is risky business

* Reuters: Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico

The best of the rest

Scoops and breaking news here and overseas this morning

* Nina Hindmarsh for Nelson Mail-$: Water had no where to go. Pigeon Valley resident says flooding was worsened by uncleared debris from previous events.

* Stuff: Tasman mayor says weather ‘the most devastating’ he’s seen

* NZ Herald: Govt wants to increase international students by over 30,000 by 2034

* Thomas Manch for Stuff: Boost to work rights for international students to drive $7b sector

* Stuff: Queenstown housing crisis worsens, waitlist grows by 41% in two years

* AP: The EU is delaying retaliatory tariffs on US goods in hopes of reaching a deal by Aug. 1

Politics & geopolitics

* Column by Tracy Watkins for Sunday Star Times-$: The hollowing out of New Zealand. Mass migration has allowed successive governments to fool themselves and us into thinking the exodus to Australia isn’t a crisis

* Stuff: Seymour wants a fast-track for new supermarket companies

* RNZ: Peeni Henare to contest Tāmaki Makaurau by-election for Labour

* NZ Herald-$: ‘Affront to NZ’s sovereignty’: David Seymour v the United Nations

* Sue Wood interviewed by Joanna Wane for NZ Herald-$: 'You weren’t sure who you could trust’: Sue Wood's time in ‘snake pit' National Party

* Column by Vernon Small for Sunday Star Times-$: Is the Government just paying lip service to cost of living concerns? It’s taken credit for interest rate cuts, but the real public relations test for the Government will be in the actions it takes to curb supermarket prices and ensure cheap and reliable energy supply.

Business, economy & tech

* 1News’ Q+A: Kiwi founder of Marketplace says Facebook is a 'complex mirror'Kiwi Bowen Pan, who spearheaded the development of Facebook Marketplace, tells Q+A "it's hard to say" if the social media platform represents a net good in the world.

* Column by Martin Sandbu for FT-$ (gift link that opens 3 times): The frightening world without the dollar

* NZ Herald: 99% of people couldn't afford this: Massive South Island stations aim for $140m

* Column by Rod Carr for Sunday Star Times-$: Artificial intelligence is not wise. The new technology falls short in understanding unintended consequences, mutations, and randomness - and is not, therefore, “wise”.

* Op-Ed by One NZ Chief Enterprise Officer Mike Purchase for Sunday Star Times-$: When it comes to digitising NZ, we’re missing a bold strategy. Right now, too many of our government services still feel disjointed, overly manual, or just plain outdated. Try applying for multiple business licences in one go, and it’s like stepping back in time.

* Tom Pullar Strecker for The Post-$: Manufacturers still struggling despite hopes for recover

Housing

* Hamish McNeilly for Stuff: Battle of the bond: Inside the Tenancy Tribunal with a notorious landlord

* Anne Gibson for NZ Herald-$: Auckland retiree faces eviction as ground rent jumps 344%

* Caroline Williams for Stuff: What Rotorua is doing to get kids out of emergency housing motels

* OneRoof: Out-of-town buyers hot for deceased estate with $235,000 price tag

* NZ Herald: Deadly volcanic eruption clouds could travel 15km across Auckland - research

* Miriam Bell for Sunday Star Times-$: The cost of building a house is high, but it will never get betterBuilding costs in NZ are 50% higher than in Australia and they’re still climbing. But this might be as good as it gets for hopeful homebuilders

Transport, infrastructure & councils

* Stewart Sowman-Lund for Sunday Star Times-$: More residents front up with concerns over fast-tracked Ellerslie development. Some fear Auckland Council is turning a blind eye, after an email emerged questioning whether they could be making complaints ‘just for the sake of it’.

* Libby Kirkby-McLeod for RNZ: No timetable, no set stops could be working for Tauranga public transport

* Amelia Wade for Sunday Star Times-$: Conefusion: Are there too many road cones? We still don’t know. The prime minister said road cones were “clogging up the joint” but one month after the launch of a hotline, there’s been very few genuine complaints. And no one knows how much it’s costing.

* Tom Hunt for The Post-$: Wellington Water reveals $2.7m traffic bill and $1.4m corporate fee on single project. Wellington Water has finally released some of the numbers behind its multimillion-dollar Taranaki St project — and they include $4m for traffic control and the utility’s fee.

* Deep-dive by Jonathan Killick for Sunday Star Times-$: ‘Democracy in crisis’: Council reps complain of bureaucracy’s ‘quiet agenda’In an unusual twist, Auckland Council may end up using ratepayer funds to legally challenge itself.

* Op-Ed by Sarah Sparks for Sunday Star Times-$: Māori ward referendums: Will voters support a more inclusive democracy? Our nation’s commitment to Māori representation is back on the line, and we’ll soon see how committed Aotearoa really is to genuine partnership.

Poverty, living costs, work, education & crime

* Deep-dive by Elsie Williams for The Post-$: Young and shut out: Gen Z face the harshest job market in years. CVs handed out in person. Hundreds of online applications. Training that comes to nothing. Young people are bearing the brunt of New Zealand’s downturn “by a country mile”, and face one of the most challenging labour markets in memory.

* Op-Ed by Madison Burgess-Smith for The Post-$: Young and living in NZ? It’s probably better than you thinkOPINION: New Zealand might just be one of the best places in the world to be young, broke-ish, and building a life.

* Deep-dive by Stewart Sowman-Lund for Sunday Star Times-$: Work, Interrupted: The kids, the mortgage, but no job. What next?What’s it like to be a mid-career professional looking for work? For Rory O’Sullivan, it means grappling with potentially having to sell the house.

* Stuff: 'We have a life here': Couple whose baby was born at 27 weeks fighting to stay in NZ

* NZ Herald: Company that lends flexible line of credit for divorce proceedings launches in NZ

Climate, water, land, air and environment

* Column for Andrea Vance for Sunday Star Times-$: The new politics of climate adaptation. Who gets saved? While some are still picking up the pieces after major weather events, others are fighting to protect their views.

* RNZ: 'Hopefully we can lend a hand' - more Kiwi fire-fighters head to Canada

* AP: US has reclosed its southern border after a flesh-eating parasite is seen further north in Mexico

* AP: Death threats over Texas flooding cartoon force museum journalism event to be postponed

* 1News: Key Nelson route remains shut as flood clean-up continuesNelson Tasman region remains under a state of emergency after up to 200mm of rain fell in some areas over Friday night into Saturday morning.

* Mary Argue for RNZ: Elderly couple rescued in digger bucket, as 'wall of water' hits Tasman holiday park

Good news & solutions

* Op-Ed by Chloe Swarbrick for NZ Herald: Why NZ should consider a wealth tax on the ultra-rich

* Column by Audrey Young for NZ Herald-$: What if the PM fell under a bus? Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop would lead the running if the Government suddenly needed a new leader.

* 1News: Lithium battery fires being lit to tackle rubbish truck blazesFourteen fires have been reported inside trucks this year, matching the total for all of last year.

* NZ Herald: ‘Life-changing’: Wellington man back on weight loss drug after Medsafe approval

* NZ Herald: Insulation rule changes could cut $15k from new build costs

* Mary Argue for RNZ: Elderly couple rescued in digger bucket, as 'wall of water' hits Tasman holiday park

Cartoon: Sargent Schulz

Timeline cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guest Cathrine Dyer about the week’s news in geopolitics and climate, along with special guests Professor Jonathan Boston from Victoria University of Wellington and Professor Wolfgang Rack from University of Canterbury.

This week’s Hoon featured:

* a discussion about research showing rising Southern Oceans surface salinity and declining sea ice with climate scientist and Antarctic ice specialist Wolfgang Rack. Cathrine mentioned this Katharine Hayhoe post on LinkedIn about conspiracy theories that cloud-seeding caused this week’s Texas floods.

* a discussion about an independent experts’ report this week on climate adaptation with Jonathan Boston, who has also written a comment piece on it over at Newsroom.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe