In this episode of The Labor Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, Julia Coronado and Ellen Zentner unpack the February employment report, which delivered a surprising decline of 92,000 jobs. The hosts explore the details behind the headline number—including the role of the Kaiser Permanente strike and the unusually narrow distribution of hiring across sectors—while discussing what the data signal about the current “low-hire, low-fire” labor market. Their conversation also reflects themes raised at NABE’s recent Economic Policy Conference, highlighting the debate between demand-side and supply-side explanations for labor market softness.

Julia and Ellen also examine the broader macro implications, from the ongoing debate around the neutral interest rate to the conditions the Federal Reserve would need to see before considering rate cuts. With productivity gains from AI, demographic pressures, sticky inflation, and geopolitical risks all in play, the hosts discuss how policymakers and forecasters are navigating a period of heightened uncertainty. It’s a thoughtful look at what the latest labor market data may mean for growth, inflation, and the path of monetary policy.

NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. Past presidents of NABE include former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, several former Federal Reserve Governors, and other senior business leaders.