If you think the war is basically over because someone said Iran was “decimated,” slow down and do the math. We bring back author and longtime war and strategy teacher Michael Vlahos to dissect the claims coming out of Washington, including a clip of the Secretary of War projecting confidence about Iranian losses and U.S. stockpiles. Then we translate the language of victory into capabilities, inventories, and what actually changes on the battlefield.

We dig into the shock factor that keeps showing up in this conflict: Iran’s growing missile accuracy. Michael explains why guidance systems and satellite navigation matter, how China’s BeiDou GPS alternative can tighten missile impact to a few meters, and why that precision turns U.S. bases and high-value assets into far riskier bets. From there we tackle the uncomfortable question everyone avoids: how much help might Russia and China provide, from components and air defense support to quieter forms of intelligence and targeting assistance.

The second half gets brutally practical about sustainability. We talk munitions stockpiles, interceptor burn rates, and the limits of “we’ll just build more,” plus why cheap guided bombs are not a cure if air defenses block access and key sites are deeply buried. We also challenge the assumption that the U.S. Navy can simply blockade its way to leverage, laying out fleet size realities, carrier deployment strain, shipyard bottlenecks, and the incentives inside the military industrial complex. The stakes are not just military; we connect the Strait of Hormuz to oil prices, diesel supply, fertilizer, and potential food shocks.

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Scott brings Larry Johnson back on the show to discuss where things stand between the US and Iran. Johnson explains why he’s convinced things are ultimately headed towards escalation.

Discussed on the show:

Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and a former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. Follow his analysis at Sonar21

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For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/43D82oY (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/4eMQblu

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/4a5fKvx

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tax Attorney Matt Sercely https://agoristtaxadvice.com; Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com; Expat Money https://expatmoney.com/scott; and Crowdhealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/ (use promocode Horton)

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Scott interviews Nick Cleveland-Stout from Responsible Statecraft about his reporting on the Israel lobby’s multifaceted attempt to influence the American public.

Discussed on the show:

Nick Cleveland-Stout is a Research Associate in the Democratizing Foreign Policy program at the Quincy Institute. Previously, Nick conducted research on U.S.-Brazil relations as a 2023 Fulbright fellow at the Federal University of Santa Catarina. Follow him on X @nick_clevelands

Sign up for the Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom at scotthortonacademy.com

For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/43D82oY (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/4eMQblu

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/4a5fKvx

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tax Attorney Matt Sercely https://agoristtaxadvice.com; Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com; Expat Money https://expatmoney.com/scott; and Crowdhealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/ (use promocode Horton)

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com

Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show!

Trump’s posture on Iran is getting judged from an unexpected angle, and we dig into why. We react to Tucker Carlson calling Trump “weak” not for avoiding intervention, but for failing to stand up to allies, especially Israel, as the conflict widens. From there, we lay out a clear case for shared responsibility at the top: pressure from partners can be constant, but a US president still decides whether to provide refueling planes, intelligence sharing, maintenance support, and missile defense that make sustained operations possible.

We also walk through the memorandum of understanding and why it collapses under two competing interpretations. Washington treats it as a short-term tool to reopen oil shipping, while Tehran treats it as a trust-building step after years of broken commitments tied to the nuclear deal and on-again, off-again negotiations. That gap turns into a direct contest over the Strait of Hormuz, the most important choke point in the global energy market, and we explain why Iran’s control of maritime traffic now matters more than headline-grabbing talk about uranium stockpiles or symbolic territorial moves.

Then we connect the dots on escalation risk: Axios reporting on massive refueling deployments, warnings about an “escalation trap,” and what a potential ground invasion could look like in real terms. We also confront the consequences of striking civilian infrastructure, the blowback that follows across Gulf states, and the looming energy crunch as strategic reserves get drawn down and China returns to the market. Finally, we break down JD Vance’s public messaging, the claims around Kushner and Witkoff, and the broader question of political influence shaping US decision-making.

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John and I discuss the evils of men, changing ourselves, and reading the preface to Ordinary Men.

I further examine the strategic deficit disorder that absolutely dominates the US and western military establishments.

America has a singular inability to execute large and complex wars without failing in a spectacular fashion.

I speak to the tools and critical thinking modalities that could spark and encourage competent martial imagination. Moral courage is necessary to tell the flag officer dullards and their Senior Executive Service (SES) necromancers that the emperor has no clothes.

Recommended Listening:

On Strategic Empathy

Recommended Reading:

Michael Mazarr Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America’s Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy

Williamson Murray The Making of Strategy: Rulers, States, and War

Frans Osinga Science, Strategy and War (Strategy and History)

Stephen Robinson The Blind Strategist: John Boyd and the American Art of War

Christian Madsbjerg Sensemaking: The Power of the Humanities in the Age of the Algorithm

Johnson and Abbe Developing Strategic Empathy and Perspective Taking in Military

Zachary Shore A Sense of the Enemy: The High Stakes History of Reading Your Rival’s Mind

Dave Snowden Cynefin – Weaving Sense-Making into the Fabric of Our World

US Army Center of Military History

My Substack

Email at [email protected]

A single yes or no question can expose an entire political strategy. We sit down with activist and independent journalist Misty Winston to unpack why so many Democratic leaders can’t answer plainly when Israel and Palestine comes up, especially on the hardest point: do Palestinians have a right to resist an occupying military, and what standard should apply when civilians versus soldiers are involved?

We react to the viral independent media grilling of Rep. Ro Khanna and talk about why long form interviews on YouTube are changing the game. Misty breaks down the generational split inside the Democratic Party, how younger voters are processing Gaza in real time, and why double standards on “self defense” keep collapsing under scrutiny. From there, we take on Gavin Newsom’s attempt to frame the crisis as a Netanyahu problem, and why that explanation dodges deeper issues tied to Zionism, occupation, and apartheid.

Then we turn to the policy lever that actually matters: weapons. We analyze AOC’s careful language on an arms embargo and whether progressive rhetoric translates into votes that would cut off arms transfers to Israel. Finally, we shift to a domestic civil liberties warning sign with huge stakes: Flock cameras and ALPR automated license plate readers spreading across the country, the surveillance add-ons that go far beyond plates, and why groups like dflock.org are mapping deployments as public resistance grows.

If you care about 2028 Democratic politics, Israel Palestine debate, Gaza policy, and the future of privacy rights under mass surveillance, this one is built to challenge your assumptions. Subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review with the question you think politicians should be forced to answer next.

A 500% tariff on anyone who does business with Russia sounds like “strength” until you follow the blast radius. We walk through the revived Graham sanctions bill and why secondary sanctions can punish far more than the intended target, from US partners and global trade to everyday Americans who feel the ripple in prices, shipping, and energy markets. Along the way, we ask a blunt question that Washington often dodges: if sanctions are supposed to change behavior, what do we do when years of draconian restrictions don’t end the war or deliver a settlement?

Kelly joins me to unpack how sanctions can harden conflict politics by turning diplomacy into a taboo and negotiations into surrender. We talk about Russia’s ability to adapt, the way black markets and workarounds form, and the risk of Congress mandating sanctions so tightly that any president trying to cut a deal would need lawmakers to unwind the very “leverage” everyone claims to want. Then we zoom out to the bigger escalation picture, where financial warfare increasingly bleeds into kinetic actions at sea and around ports, raising the chance of miscalculation and broader confrontation.

The second half pivots to the Middle East as the US and Iran trade blows again and threats expand to civilian infrastructure. We weigh the costs, the strain on missile defenses and stockpiles, and the “whipsaw” problem of foreign policy announcements that reverse within hours. We close with JD Vance’s comments on the Joe Rogan Experience and a hard look at the legality and ethics claims around presidential war-making, the War Powers Act, and Congress’s responsibility. If you find this breakdown useful, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find it.

The official story is simple. The timeline is not. We take a hard look at the reporting around Senator Lindsey Graham’s death and ask a basic question that gets skipped too often in political news: does the schedule even work. With Larry Johnson back on the show, we walk through the travel route to Kyiv, the time zone math, and why conflicting accounts keep surfacing when high profile foreign policy figures are involved.

Then the focus shifts to the West Bank after Representative Ro Khanna says he was detained by Israeli settlers armed with American made rifles, with the IDF continuing the detention. We react to Netanyahu’s public explanation, talk about accountability, and dig into what this moment suggests about Israeli settler violence, US political support, and how “ally” can start to sound like a branding exercise instead of a reality.

We close with the rapidly deteriorating US Iran situation, including the Strait of Hormuz fight, claims about who controls safe passage, and what that means for global energy markets. Larry lays out a nuts and bolts case for why sour crude constraints, refinery design, diesel supply, aviation fuel demand, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown could collide into a very real economic shock if escalation continues.

If you value clear analysis over talking points, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

Calling it a “lab leak” makes the story feel tidy, but the real scandal might be the system that makes lab-origin disasters plausible in the first place. We sit down with independent journalist Sam Husseini to unpack gain-of-function research, why “potentially pandemic pathogens” are funded and defended, and how a small circle of incentives, prestige, and national security framing can turn high-risk virology into business as usual. We also dig into why Sam avoids the word “unintentional” and why the most important question isn’t only where a virus started, but what oversight failed and what evidence still hasn’t been disclosed.

We talk through the stakes in plain terms: biosafety risk, biosecurity risk, and why scenarios involving smallpox retention, Ebola work, or a weaponized bird flu should terrify policymakers and the public alike. We also examine the transparency gap, including how Freedom of Information Act delays can stall accountability for years, leaving journalists and citizens unable to evaluate funding streams, conflicts of interest, and decision-making inside institutions tied to NIH, Fauci-era priorities, and international lab networks.

Then we pivot to foreign policy and apply the same skepticism to war narratives. Sam lays out a “strategic patience” view of the Middle East, arguing that a 1990s Iraq-style pressure campaign could be repurposed against Iran, with shifting pretexts and timed escalations that shape headlines and push Gaza off the agenda. If you care about gain-of-function research, biowarfare history, pandemic origins, and how information control works in both science and war, this conversation is for you.