The Loadstar

If 2022 taught us anything, it was to expect the unexpected. It was the year that shocked us with war in Ukraine, endless Chinese Covid lockdowns, soaring inflation and the devastation of tighter fiscal and monetary policies. Extreme weather affected supply chains from India to the Mississippi, Australia to the Rhine. Freight rates collapsed and peak season was a non-event.

But, on the other side of the ledger, in most parts of the world 2022 also saw the emergence of the spring shoots of a post-Covid world with all the freedoms that entails.

This episode examines the biggest stories of the last year and what a post-Covid world means for M&A activity as well as for shippers, forwarders and carriers. A gaggle of Loadstar hacks also pick out their biggest winners and losers of 2022.

And we look forward to what happens next. Who will be spending their Covid treasure troves and who will be tightening their belts? And where are the biggest market risks and opportunities in this new economic and geopolitical landscape? All is revealed.

Guests

Alex Lennane, The Loadstar Publisher

Gavin Van Marle, The Loadstar, Managing Editor

Mike Wackett, The Loadstar,  Sea Freight Correspondent

Episode in more detail

War in Ukraine and the impact on air cargo (3.44)

Exactly what happened to ocean freight in 2022? (7.59)

M&A deals in 2022 (12.19)

Maersk Skou retires – his legacy (15.44)

Winners & Losers 2022 (18.26)

The biggest takeaways and lessons from the Covid era (26.00)

What to expect in box shipping in 2023 (30.22)

Air freight forecasts for 2023 (34.52)

The new business environment/M&A (37.54)

Risk and opportunities in 2023 (48.10)

Credits: Created, edited and produced by Mike King

Mike can be contacted at [email protected]

www.theloadstar.com

In part 1 we examine what one express executive calls the ‘modest’ 2022 peak season. We look at companies such as Shopify and TikTok which are now investing heavily in their supply chains. We discuss integrator price hikes, US logistics challenges and the looming threat of labour strikes. And finally, we ask what Covid protests and lockdowns in China mean for global logistics, and whether a post-Covid ‘normalisation’ of supply chains will see a welcome return to more emphasis on human rights and procurement diversification.

Part Two is a deep dive with Xeneta’s Peter Sand into ocean shipping markets and how to manage contract renegotiations with carriers.

Guests

Greg Hewitt, CEO, DHL Express US

Emma Cosgrove, Senior Reporter covering logistics at Insider

Brian Bourke, Global Chief Commercial Officer, SEKO Logistics

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta

Episode in more detail:

Part 1

The supply chain in mainstream media and stock markets (2.25)

New market entrants – Shopify to TikTok (6.20)

DHL Express exclusive (11.39)

2022: The modest peak season (15.19)

Pricing: DHL vs FedEx vs UPS (22.13)

DHL invests (24.50)

Labour costs and last mile bankruptcies (27.19)

Protests in China (31.03)

Forwarding in Q4 – SEKO Logistics (35.20)

The threat of labour strikes (38.54)

Risk and opportunity in 2023 (40.40)

Human rights and a more diversified supply chain (46.05)

Part 2 – Ocean shipping rates focus (49.20)

Blanks ahead (51.40)

Renegotiating long-term (53.45)

Forwarder plight (58.10)

Declining demand (1.00.50)

Surging deliveries (1.04.28)

Shipper advice (1.07.50)

Created, editing and produced by Mike King

Mike can be contacted at [email protected]

www.theloadstar.com

Ever wondered how the largest shippers manage vast supply chains, draw up contracts with favoured carriers or deploy the latest tech? If so, this episode has you covered. Swedish multination Electrolux’s annual Full Container Load volumes average around 175,000 teu, while its annual air freight tonnage totals some 6,000 metric tonnes. Tia Mohan, Ocean and Air Transportation Planning Director, joins host Mike King for an in-depth interview.

This episode also includes reports from TIACA’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami from Loadstar Publisher Alex Lennane and Freightwaves’ Air Cargo Editor Eric Kulisch.

And Mike also examines the latest economic and freight rate trends with Peyton Burnett, MD of TAC Index.

Mike can be contacted at: [email protected].

Guests

Tia Mohan, Ocean and Air Transportation Planning Director, Electrolux

Peyton Burnett, MD, TAC Index

Alex Lennane, Publisher, Loadstar

Eric Kulisch, Air Cargo Editor, Freightwaves

Episode in more detail:

The scope of Electrolux’s supply chain challenge (1.44)

The pros and cons of tech (7.37)

Pricing platforms (11.12)

Navigating chaos amid a seller’s market during Covid (13.30)

Geopolitics and sourcing (19.17)

Contracting strategy and KPIs (24.41)

Enforcement: If you can’t do port-to-port, forget door-to-door (27.01)

The emissions journey (30.05)

Supply chains in 2023 (33.40)

TIACA Air Cargo Forum – Loadstar and Freightwaves report (36.57)

Signs of optimism (40.26)

China’s zero-Covid policy (42.51)

The state of US air freight (45.33)

Freight rate update (49.24)

Credits: Created, produced and hosted by Mike King

www.theloadstar.com

Over the last year we have heard so much about the need for more UK port capacity. In this Sponsored Podcast The Loadstar explores one project that will deliver just that. Managing editor, Gavin van Marle examines DP World’s decision to construct a fourth berth at its London Gateway complex in the UK.
Gavin gets answers about why this is so important for UK plc and European shipping and logistics from his guest Ernst Schulze, UK CEO of DP World and the company’s ambitions to transform itself into an end-to-end supply chain operator.

Episode in more detail:

The investment rationale (1.45)

Investment size and timeline (6.05)

Customer benefits (9.09)

Rail outlook (10.19)

Innovations and decarbonisation (13.30)

The logistics of ports (17.03)

UK Free Ports (20.29)

E-commerce demand driver (22.18)

Job creation (24.27)

Digitalisation and supply chains (26.39)

DP World’s vertical integration (28.58)

Post-Covid supply chains (32.38)

Website: www.theloadstar.com

If you think East Coast versus West Coast is all about rappers, think again. In Part 2 of this episode the Loadstar examines cargo shifts in the US this year from a global perspective and from a port operator’s viewpoint. Host Mike King speaks to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, and Stephen A. Edwards, CEO and executive director of Virginia Port Authority.

Part 1 of this episode also asks if the slowdown in e-commerce is overstated and examines the limited achievements and many failings of IATA’s hosting of its World Cargo Symposium in London. We also preview COP 27 and ask where next for the EC’s liner consortia competition rule exemptions.

Guests

Mirja Nissen, Director, eCommerce Solutions, International Bonded Couriers, Inc.

Stephen A. Edwards, CEO and Executive Director, Virginia Port Authority

Alex Lennane, Publisher, The Loadstar

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta

Nick Savvides, News Editor, The Loadstar

Also featuring:

Olivier Casanova, deputy CFO, CMA CGM Group and former CEO, CMA CGM Air Cargo

Vassilios Demetriades, Shipping Deputy Minister to the President, Republic of Cyprus

Episode in more detail

Part 1 – news update

IATA’s London fail (2.25)

CMA CGM’s air reveal (6.50)

Air freight rates (10.58)

E-commerce now and in future (12.13)

‘Parcelisation’ (21.55)

EU liner regulation update (22.39)

COP27 preview (26.18)

Part 2 US Cargo Wars: East Coast vs West Coast (27.44)

Virginia Port Authority CEO on cargo wins and investments (30.15)

Xeneta numbers on West coast cargo transition eastwards (33.47)

Congestion bites (36.17)

Hinterland bottlenecks (45.49)

Fixing US infrastructure (49.47)

Demand outlook (54.41)

Transatlantic trade bonus (56.54)

Long-term cargo wins? (58.40)

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Website: www.theloadstar.com

In this Big Interview, Loadstar Podcast editor and producer Mike King gets the view of the freight and shipping world from the perspective of shippers as he interviews James Hookham, Secretary General of the Global Shippers’ Forum.

Mike asks why do shippers still want reform of the liner industry even as rates declines? Also discussed are the impacts Covid disruptions and soaring freight rates have had on SMEs. Why container lines need more regulation. How carriers and shippers can build trust so they can cooperate more fully on critical challenges including how to decarbonise supply chains. And why more action needs to be taken to stop bugs getting into boxes.

Episode in more detail

Logistics now: The shippers’ perspective (1.24)

The outlook in Europe (4.14)

China as a manufacturing centre (5.33)

Brexit and Truss (8.04)

Shippers view of container lines and EC regulations (13.34)

The dangers of bugs in boxes (26.00)

Building more sustainable supply chains (31.00)

2023 challenges (35.10)

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Website: www.theloadstar.com

In Part 1, Mike King and guests explore freight technology take-up and the latest M&A activity. They also ask if we are now seeing the normalisation of freight rates, and if the scaling back of ocean and air ambitions by some integrators and carriers are the sign of things to come.

Are you trying to decarbonise your supply chain without partnering with stakeholders. If so, in Part 2 of this podcast you’ll hear why you should think again.

Guests

Bryn Atherton, Liner Development Director, Allseas Shipping Company

Alex Lennane, Publish, The Loadstar

Peyton Burnett, Managing Director, TAC INDEX

Dr. Mikael Lind, Adjunct Professor in Maritime Informatics and Senior Strategic Research Advisor Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE) and Chalmers University of Technology

Wolfgang Lehmacher, Investor and Board Member, and former Head of Supply Chain and Transport Industries at the World Economic Forum

Gavin Van Marle, Managing Editor, The Loadstar

Eric Johnson, Technology Editor, Journal of Commerce

Episode in more detail:

Part 1

Tech uptake challenge (2.23)

FedEx & Amazon pullback (6.13)

Air freight rates and challenges (8.00)

Ocean rates normalising? (11.40)

Blank sailings (finally) (14.48)

Allseas interview/UK port strikes (17.35)

Chartering market as spot market falls (19.58)

M&A activity (25.46)

Part 2 (28.22) – Partnering to decarbonise

 Credits: Created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Mike can be contacted at [email protected]

In this Deep Dive Loadstar Podcast, Mike King and guests explain the traditional container shipping peak season and its role in the ebb and flow of global trade.

They also examine how the last two years of Covid-driven supply chain disruption have impacted box trade seasonality.

And they consider whether parts of that transformation will be permanent, or whether a return to normality is now underway in the shape of a 2022 peak season that has faltered in the face of economic headwinds.

Guests:

Lars Jensen, CEO, Vespucci Maritime

John McCown, Founder, Blue Alpha Capital

Kathy Liu, Director, Global Sales & Marketing, Dimerco Express Group

Jason Haith, Manager, OEC Group

Stephanie Loomis, Vice President for Procurement, CargoTrans

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta

Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research, Stifel

Josh Brazil, VP for Supply Chain Insights, Project44

Credits: Created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Mike can be contacted at: [email protected]

In part one, Mike King and his guests from around the world of freight, shipping and logistics explore if the US peak season is already over, why forwarder profits peaked in the second quarter and how port congestion is set to continue and could act as a break on freight rate declines.

In part two, Mike speaks in depth to Paul Stoddart, the former Formula 1 team owner and chairman of fast-growing freighter operator European Cargo. They cover the global economy, why the cost-of-living crisis will curtail bellyhold capacity, the challenges of air cargo for a newcomer, and why regulators and politics are threatening to sink UK aviation.

Guests

Paul Stoddart, Chairman of European Cargo

Stephanie Loomis, Vice President for Procurement, CargoTrans

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta

Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research, Stifel

Josh Brazil, VP for Supply Chain Insights, Project44

Episode in more detail:

Part one

Ocean and air freight rates update (3.39)

Trans-Atlantic trade soars (5.00)

Forwarder returns peak (7.49)

Predictions from Stifel (11.48)

M&A outlook (15.49)

US bottlenecks (20.47)

Has the peak season been and gone? (25.16)

Xeneta: Where is the box freight rate floor? (34.42)

The impact of port congestion (37.35)

Part two – Interview with Paul Stoddart, Chairman of European Cargo

Formula 1 – a teething ground for air cargo (48.53)

European Cargo – story so far (52.48)

Belly returns and the air cargo outlook (56.30)

Still room for expansion? (1.00.45)

Preighters vs freighters (1.02.28)

War in Ukraine and air ops (1.05.57)

Sweet home Bournemouth (1.11.19)

Brexit and the failures of regulators (1.14.39)

Credits: Created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Mike can be contacted at: [email protected]

In part one of this bumper summer episode, Mike King and guests from around the world explore the current state of play in global logistics, shipping and air cargo. This section analyses the biggest news stories of the summer including industrial unrest at European ports, the latest from China and why US West Coast port congestion has shifted East. It also includes a full briefing on air and ocean freight rates.

In part 2, Mike deep dives on the macroeconomic environment buffeting the freight industry. How are soaring logistics and shipping costs feeding global inflation? And what does inflation, recession and slowing global growth mean for the logistics industry?

Guests:

John McCown, container shipping veteran and Founder of Blue Alpha Capital

Kathy Liu, Director Global Sales & Marketing of Dimerco Express Group

Rob Subbaraman, Nomura Head of Global Macro Research and Co-Head of Global Markets Research

Jason Haith, Manager at Transpacific forwarding specialist OEC Group

Peyton Burnett, Managing Director of TAC INDEX.

Mike Wackett, Loadstar, sea freight correspondent

Credits: Created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Comments or thoughts on this podcast can be sent to Mike King: [email protected].

Episode in more detail

Part 1 – Summer Catch-up

 Shipping freight rates take a summer plunge (3.30)

Carriers step up blanks (5.00)

China military exercises hits air freight (9.00)

Alternative sourcing to China (9.39)

Slowing Asian exports, but autumn launch boost expected (12.05)

TAC Index: Air Cargo catch-up (14.20)

Shippers “rubbing hands” as power swings away from airlines (17.25)

Felixstowe/Liverpool dockworker strikes (18.16)

Sizzling temperatures hit European barge logistics (20.14)

German port strike threat (22.30)

EC regulators turn gaze on container lines (23.10)

How the US peak season is playing out (25.10)

US port congestion shifts to the East (26.31)

Retailers juggle inventory (30.40)

Container lines post bumper Q2 profits (37.24)

Part 2 – Special report: Economic Headwinds & Freight

 IMF forecasts drastically cut (41.00)

Nomura’s take on recession (43.39)

Mixed picture on inflation? (46.16)

Global trade to slow; Asian exports bellwether (49.20)

Shipping costs drive inflation. (52.08)

Record Q2 for carriers says McCown (55.29)

The inelasticity shipping pricing? (57.10)

How the shipping/freight industry is adapting to rising inflation (59.11)

Why shipping costs might not fall when firms near-shore (1.03.54)