The Loadstar

What next for container shipping rates and regulation as the macroeconomic clouds turn thunderous? Are carriers spending their pandemic windfalls wisely? Is deglobalisation on the agenda and, if so, what does this mean for box shipping?  Who better to ask than one of the world’s leading analysts and former shipping executive, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime.

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Episode in more detail

Why there is a precedent for today’s macroeconomic situation (3.01)

Where next for global box volumes (4.28)

What happens in peak season (7.51)

Port congestion could unravel (10.31)

Why contracts might not be honoured (17.07)

Should liner performance be better? (22.40)

OSRA and President Biden’s ‘intervention’ (26.59)

Liner investment strategies (31.10)

War, Covid and deglobalisation (35.08)

In part one, host Mike King and his guests examine why northern Europe’s hub ports are struggling to cope with container volumes, what Joe Biden’s forays into shipping policy mean for shippers and why predictions of a cargo surge from China have not materialised.

Contributors also discuss the air cargo supply-demand balance and the sector’s logistics challenges, what next for AirBridgeCargo and where (and when) container lines might spend their huge profits.

And in part 2, Xeneta’s Peter Sand makes some bold predictions for container shipping as the global economic picture deteriorates. Box volumes were originally expected to see healthy growth this year, but those forecasts are rapidly being revised. Could we even see a contraction in 2022 and, if so, what would this mean for spot and contract freight rates? In short, is winter coming for some trade lanes?

Guests

Erion Hormoviti, Executive Director, Air Freight Product at Ascent

Eleanor Hadland, Senior Analyst for Ports & Terminals at Drewry

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta

Alex Lennane, Loadstar Publisher

Mike Wackett, Loadstar Sea Freight Correspondent

 Episode in more detail:

PART 1

Endless, constant disruptions (3.22)

European ports in disarray (5.19)

Drewry’s take on port congestion and the peak season (9.37 – 17.26)

Barge chaos (17.29)

Air cargo staffing shortages and challenges (18.53)

What next for ABC? (20.53)

Ascent’s take on global air cargo (23.00-32.41).)

Container lines eye the skies (30.41-36.00)

More M&A this summer? (36.53)

OSRA and more liner regulations (38.00)

PART 2 – Is Winter Coming for the container trades? An exclusive interview on all things shipping with Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst. (41.11)

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

As the freight and shipping industry waits for China to unshackle its people and global trade from Covid-19, creator and editor Mike King looks not only at what might happen on key trades lanes in the next weeks and months, he also explores whether global supply chains as we’ve known them are now finished? Is a fundamental reset on the way? And who will be driving it if so?

We also have the build-up to the peak shipping season, air cargo freight rate updates, a look at the preparedness of US surface transport, and the latest regulations covering the vast business that is the global illegal wildlife trade.

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Guests

Peyton Burnett, Managing Director of TAC INDEX.

Craig Fuller, Founder & CEO at FreightWaves and CEO at FLYING

Philippa Dyson, TRAFFIC's coordinator of transport sector engagement 

Dennis Grady, Vice President for Ocean Product at Ascent.

Episode in more detail

The end of globalisation? (3.37)

Will China remain a reliable partner? (7.26)

The air cargo market (12.00)

Who is paying for spiking jet fuel prices? (16.56)

The re-regionalisation of supply chains (21.00)

A pre-peak season surge? (27.31)

Freight and WFH  (37.33)

The winners from a trading reset (41.00)

Complicity and the illegal wildlife trade (45.00)

New IMO rules (52.49)

Air cargo steps forward on smuggling (57.02)

On its 175th anniversary, Loadstar Podcast editor and producer Mike King asks Hapag Lloyd, the world’s fifth largest container line, how the carrier is managing the chaos of the here and now? What is being done to help shipper customers? Where will the windfalls of the last two years be spent? And what does the future hold for container shipping over the next 175 years?

Mike interviews newly appointed Executive Board Member of Hapag Lloyd, Donya Amer, and Dr. Ralf Belusa, Managing Director Digital Business & Transformation.

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Episode in more detail:

175 years of challenges (2.22)

Unkinking container shipping now ( 6.21)

A reset for supply chains (9.40)

Any slots for an SME? (12.40)

Spending a treasure chest (14.45)

Scramble for Africa and investing in clean fuels (16.52)

Digitalisation and Covid-19 (22.35)

The next 175 years (25.10)

In this episode, Mike King examines what impact Covid lockdowns in China are having on exports from Asia. What do lower outbound volumes mean for the peak season, container shipping and the global economy? And, if lockdowns are eased in the coming weeks, are carriers and ports in Europe and North America ready to handle a Q3 surge better than they managed in 2021?

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Guests

Lars Mikael Jensen, Head of Global Ocean Network at Maersk

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta

Jake Phipps, CEO of global manufacturer Phipps International

Josh Brazil, VP Supply Chain Insights, Project44

Rob Subbaraman, Head of Global Macro Research and Co-head of Global Markets Research, Nomura

Episode in more detail:

All eyes on China as lockdowns hit global supply chains (4.20)

View from a shipper (5.20)

Extended Transpac delivery times (.7.50)

Container spot and contract freight rates (10.21)

TAC Index update (13.50)

USWC versus USEC (16.33) – analysts and their numbers

European port delays (23.46)

Box shipping demand outlook (25.25)

The Economist – demand forecast and export concerns (30.40)

Could health policy trump trade in Xi’s China (35.43)

The container line. Exclusive extended interview with Lars Mikael Jensen, Head of Global Ocean Network at Maersk (37.26).

Episode Description

In Part 1 we hear about the latest M&A activity, what’s happening at ports and airports in China as Covid lockdowns bite, and what this means for rates and the peak season.

We also shed light on how rail services between Asia and Europe have been devastated by war in Ukraine and discuss why Lidl has set up a new shipping line.

In Part 2, we zoom in on air freight as we hear how the air supply chain can be improved, what war in Europe means for the sector and why TIACA is reinventing itself under the leadership of Director General Glyn Hughes.

Guests

Glyn Hughes, Director General, The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA)

Conor Feighan, Secretary General, European Rail Freight Association (ERFA)

Peyton Burnett, Managing Director, TAC INDEX

Gavin Van Marle, Managing Editor, The Loadstar

Episode notes in more detail

Part 1

An old friend from Drewry and the Felixstowe quiz (1.23)

Lidl enters shipping (2.42)

China lockdowns and air load factor declines (5.20)

TAC Index market analysis (and plenty on China) (7.30)

War and air cargo analysis (10.37)

Xeneta shipping rates (14.48)

What happens in peak season? (16.20)

Does Asia-Europe rail freight have a future? (17.14)

M&A – the latest deals (25.59)

Part 2 – What next air cargo and TIACA

An exclusive interview with Glyn Hughes, Director General, The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) (33.15)

Credits: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

In this Deep Dive Loadstar Podcast, Mike King explores how and why the acceleration in e-commerce trade due the Covid-19 pandemic is changing retail and the world of international freight. How are supply chains being transformed? What does this mean for planning and procurement? And, as integrators, trucking companies, forwarders, 3PLs and retailers seek out new supply chain profit centres, who will win this Battle Royale?

Guests:

Cathy Roberson, President of Logistics Trends & Insights

Tom Enright, VP, Retail Supply Chain, Gartner

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta

Lee Klaskow, Senior Analyst for Transportation and Logistics at Bloomberg Intelligence

Neel Jones Shah, Flexport Executive Vice President and Global Head of Airfreight.

Jason Miller, Associate Professor of Logistics, Department of Supply Chain Management, Michigan State University — Eli Broad College of Business

Created, Produced and Hosted by Mike King

The lesson of this Easter episode is do not put all your freight eggs in one basket.

Supply chain disruptions covered include the implications of more Covid lockdowns in China, port congestion and what war in Europe is doing to air charter markets.

We have the latest air and ocean freight rates, and we hear how SME forwarders are struggling to buy space from carriers. And, will Bollore and Gefco be the next acquisitions by Europe’s container lines?

Guests

Glenn Hogben, CEO of the Air Charter Association

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta

Chris Higgins, Commercial Director at AFS

Mike Wackett, Loadstar Sea Freight Correspondent

Episode in more detail

Gefco and Bollore up for grabs. Will lines snap them up? (1.00)

Lockdowns in China – implications (6.30)

Ripple effects; port congestion (9.20)

Carrier strategy in northern Europe (18.50)

War and the state of air charter markets (21.10)

How does air cargo get back to ‘normal’? (28.40)

SME forwarders: the forgotten liner customers (31.26)

The end of customer loyalty? (33.43)

Container charter markets (42.00)

P&O/DP World: the biggest PR fumble in history? (43.50)

Credits: Created, Produced and Hosted by Mike King

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing significant supply chain issues as carriers, ports and forwarders cancel services due to the fear of carrying or handling sanctioned cargo or incurring reputational damage.  The Black Sea, meanwhile, has been classified as a high-risk war zone by the Joint War Committee, a move that has hit imports and exports. Europe’s open skies have also been dramatically closed with all sorts of implications for airlines.

In Part 1 of this episode, we explore what War in Europe and sanctions regimes means on a practical level if you’re in the business of logistics and freight. We ask what next for air cargo and shipping operations and freight rates? And what does this invasion mean for rail services from Asia to Europe?

We also hear how logistics companies are helping the humanitarian effort and what we can all do to help. And we hear the traumatic story of one seafarer who was on the wrong end of Russian missiles in the Black Sea.

In Part 2, we look longer-term. Is this the end of the post-world War 2 rules-based order on which global trade and globalisation itself were built? And, if so, what does this mean for the supply chain landscape on which you all plan and compete?

Guests

Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

Ami Daniel, CEO of Windward

Adrian Batayen, seafarer on the Namura Queen, a vessel attacked by the Russian Navy off Ukraine in the Black Sea

Chris Weeks, VP, Humanitarian Affairs, Deutsche Post DHL

Alex Lennane, Publisher, The Loadstar

Nick Savvides, News Editor, The Loadstar

Episode in more detail

Part 1

Missiles and escape from the Black Sea (2.43)

Air space closures – impact on air cargo capacity and rates (8.32)

Rail to ocean? (13.20)

Sanctions explained (14.50)

Russia and reputational risk as carriers pull services (17.50)

How companies and governments are defining ‘Russian’ interests and scaling up due diligence (22.00)

The humanitarian efforts of the logistics industry and how to help (26.59 – 35.27)

Part 2 – The post-invasion geopolitical and logistics landscape

Exclusive interview with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

The changing world order and history in fast-forward (36.00)

Sanctions and the weaponization of Western institutions (38.40)

The new trading environment and why it’s a zero-sum game (42.40)

What this new Cold War and the politicisation of supply chains mean for logistics professionals (45.21)

The end of Belt and Road? (48.50)

How to succeed in this new environment (51.32)

Credit: created, produced and hosted by Mike King

Created, Produced and Hosted by Mike King

In this inaugural episode of this Deep Dive Loadstar Podcast, editor Mike King explains why war in Ukraine is not the only global trade disruptor in March 2022.

Negotiations over a new labour contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) pose a threat to port productivity on the US West Coast where terminals, including those located at Long Beach and Los Angeles, are already bedevilled by port congestion and long vessel delays.

Already, shippers are sourcing products in Asia earlier than normal and directing more cargo to US East Coast and Gulf terminals. But do these facilities have the capacity available to receive more ships?

And what does all this mean for global inflation, container rates and the US economy?

Guests:

Brian Whitlock, Gartner Senior Director Research Analyst

Jon Gold. Vice President, Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation

Lee Klaskow, Senior Analyst for Transportation and Logistics at Bloomberg Intelligence

Peter Tirschwell, Vice President, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit

Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, Xeneta