After Monday's record close for the Dow, investors seem happy to keep buying, with futures just slightly up. The Fed meeting is the main event today. It will be the first interest-rate decision under Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, and markets are treating it like a debut with unusually high ticket prices. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the decision itself is not what matters most.

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This week begins with the possibility that a war may actually be ending. Washington and Tehran have confirmed the outline of an agreement to halt the conflict with Iran, extend the ceasefire, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. That is the main fact shaping today's U.S. session. Investors are repricing risk, oil, inflation, and the odds that the Federal Reserve may have a little more room to breathe. Oil prices are falling sharply, with Brent back near $83 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $80.

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The market entered Friday with two reasons to believe again: a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal that could cool oil prices, and SpaceX's record-breaking debut testing how much appetite investors still have for giant future-facing bets.

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A hotter-than-expected producer-price report reminded investors that inflation is not done causing trouble, even as hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy helped cool oil prices and lift market sentiment. With the ECB already raising rates, AI stocks wobbling, Oracle exposing the cost of the boom, and SpaceX preparing a monster debut, investors don't know where to look.

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The CPI report landed softly, the market did not. Inflation came in almost exactly as expected, but between shaky AI valuations, oil above $90, and fresh U.S.-Iran fighting, investors had already moved on to worrying about the rest of the menu.

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U.S. futures are rising because the market got exactly what it needed this morning: lower Middle East pressure, cheaper oil, and a fresh rebound in chip stocks. Futures were up, showing that investors are willing to step back into risk as long as the AI trade keeps working.

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This week begins with a troubling question: is the AI boom still sturdy enough to carry the market, or did Friday expose how much of the rally has been running on faith? Today's session should offer the first clue. After Friday's bruising sell-off in technology stocks, especially semiconductors, Wall Street is trying to stabilize.

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Markets had been bracing for another sign that the U.S. labor market was cooling: payroll growth somewhere around 85,000 to 88,000, unemployment steady at 4.3%, and enough weakness to keep the Fed comfortable staying on hold. Instead, the economy added 172,000 jobs.

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Broadcom was supposed to be one of the safer names in the artificial-intelligence trade. Not safe in the old-fashioned, dividend-stock sense, but safe by the current standards of Wall Street, where a company can add hundreds of billions of dollars in value because investors believe it has found a permanent seat at the AI table. But good enough suddenly wasn't.

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The market is making history, but not everyone is invited. On Tuesday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all closed at record highs. The S&P 500 even finished above 7,600 for the first time. That sounds like a broad vote of confidence in the American economy. Look closer, though, and the picture is less democratic. A small group of technology and semiconductor stocks is doing most of the heavy lifting. The rest of the market is coming along, but more like a passenger than a co-pilot.

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