Donald Trump arrived at the NATO summit and blew up the market's quiet summer script, declaring the Iran deal dead, reigniting fears around the Strait of Hormuz and dragging oil, inflation and the Fed back into the same sentence. For investors, today is no longer about AI fatigue or chip rotation, but about a rally suddenly forced to price in war risk and alliance drama.

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Wall Street is opening with one eye on AI and the other on oil, which is not exactly the calmest way to start a Tuesday. Dow futures are up 0.3%, S&P 500 futures are flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.8%, as Samsung's huge profit jump somehow managed to make investors more nervous about the chip trade, not less. After a year of spectacular gains, even great numbers now have to clear a much higher bar.

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The calendar says summer has begun. The first full week of July opens with stocks sitting in an unusually comfortable place. European equities have just touched fresh highs, while U.S. indexes are close to their peaks after a strong second quarter. Oil has fallen back toward levels seen before the latest Middle East shock. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed in size, with 160 vessels reported to have passed through last week. OPEC+ has added another 188,000 barrels a day to its August production targets.

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Second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest the week of July 13, with about 100 major European and American companies set to report. PepsiCo gets an early turn on Thursday, July 9, which may not sound like the opening act of a grand market reckoning, but investors will take what they can get. After record highs at the end of the second quarter, equities have entered July looking a little restless. This morning, futures are in the green after June non-farm payroll data.

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After the strongest quarter for U.S. stocks in six years, investors are entering July with a familiar problem: the good news may have become a little too good. The S&P 500 rose 9.1% in the first half, including dividends. Europe did even better, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Total Return index up 10.3%. Japan's Nikkei jumped 39%. South Korea's KOSPI did something closer to levitation, rising 101%, helped by artificial intelligence enthusiasm and local policy shifts. That is the backdrop for today's softer session. U.S. stocks are set to open lower, European indexes have already slipped, and parts of Asia were mixed.

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For the last session of the quarter, stocks are edging higher, oil is no longer screaming, and investors are waiting for fresh labor-market data before deciding how much optimism is allowed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on track for their best quarter in six years. The Dow is heading for its strongest quarterly gain since 2022. Not bad for a market that spent the past few months worrying about war, oil, inflation, AI spending, and the Federal Reserve.

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Markets are treating the U.S.-Iran pause as permission to breathe again: oil is back near $72, stock futures are higher, and the Strait of Hormuz has been downgraded from global panic button to unresolved risk. That gives Wall Street room to return to its other obsession: deciding which parts of the AI trade still deserve the hype, and which ones simply got too crowded.

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The Nasdaq's attempt at a rebound already looks shaky, as investors grow more impatient with the gap between massive AI spending and actual profits. Micron’s strong forecast briefly lifted the mood, but renewed pressure on chip stocks, Apple's price increases, and doubts around OpenAI's IPO plans have revived concerns that the AI trade may be running ahead of reality. At the same time, fresh tension around Iran is adding another layer of risk, even as falling oil prices suggest markets are still more focused on supply flows than geopolitical headlines.

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A cooler-than-feared inflation report gave markets the excuse they needed to rally, while stronger-than-expected consumer spending suggested the economy still has momentum. Micron's blowout results added fuel to the rebound, reminding investors that the AI boom still depends heavily on memory chips. Lower oil prices and falling bond yields helped the mood, while mixed corporate news showed that the rally was powerful but still selective.

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After two rough days for technology stocks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trying to regain their footing, helped by a modest rebound in chip names in anticipation for Micron. The memory-chip maker reports earnings after the close, and investors are treating the event as a useful test case for the AI boom. It sells into the infrastructure buildout that has powered the market's biggest story: cloud giants spending enormous sums on data centers, chips, servers, and everything else needed to keep artificial intelligence humming. When that story feels strong, Micron looks like a winner, but when investors start asking whether all this spending will earn a decent return, the company becomes a very visible place to worry.

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