After the strongest quarter for U.S. stocks in six years, investors are entering July with a familiar problem: the good news may have become a little too good. The S&P 500 rose 9.1% in the first half, including dividends. Europe did even better, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Total Return index up 10.3%. Japan's Nikkei jumped 39%. South Korea's KOSPI did something closer to levitation, rising 101%, helped by artificial intelligence enthusiasm and local policy shifts. That is the backdrop for today's softer session. U.S. stocks are set to open lower, European indexes have already slipped, and parts of Asia were mixed.

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For the last session of the quarter, stocks are edging higher, oil is no longer screaming, and investors are waiting for fresh labor-market data before deciding how much optimism is allowed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on track for their best quarter in six years. The Dow is heading for its strongest quarterly gain since 2022. Not bad for a market that spent the past few months worrying about war, oil, inflation, AI spending, and the Federal Reserve.

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Markets are treating the U.S.-Iran pause as permission to breathe again: oil is back near $72, stock futures are higher, and the Strait of Hormuz has been downgraded from global panic button to unresolved risk. That gives Wall Street room to return to its other obsession: deciding which parts of the AI trade still deserve the hype, and which ones simply got too crowded.

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The Nasdaq's attempt at a rebound already looks shaky, as investors grow more impatient with the gap between massive AI spending and actual profits. Micron’s strong forecast briefly lifted the mood, but renewed pressure on chip stocks, Apple's price increases, and doubts around OpenAI's IPO plans have revived concerns that the AI trade may be running ahead of reality. At the same time, fresh tension around Iran is adding another layer of risk, even as falling oil prices suggest markets are still more focused on supply flows than geopolitical headlines.

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A cooler-than-feared inflation report gave markets the excuse they needed to rally, while stronger-than-expected consumer spending suggested the economy still has momentum. Micron's blowout results added fuel to the rebound, reminding investors that the AI boom still depends heavily on memory chips. Lower oil prices and falling bond yields helped the mood, while mixed corporate news showed that the rally was powerful but still selective.

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After two rough days for technology stocks, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trying to regain their footing, helped by a modest rebound in chip names in anticipation for Micron. The memory-chip maker reports earnings after the close, and investors are treating the event as a useful test case for the AI boom. It sells into the infrastructure buildout that has powered the market's biggest story: cloud giants spending enormous sums on data centers, chips, servers, and everything else needed to keep artificial intelligence humming. When that story feels strong, Micron looks like a winner, but when investors start asking whether all this spending will earn a decent return, the company becomes a very visible place to worry.

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For months, investors have rewarded the suppliers of the AI boom, especially chipmakers, because their role is obvious. If everyone needs more computing power, someone has to sell the hardware. That part of the trade still makes sense. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recently hit a fresh record and is up roughly 106% this year. But Tuesday morning, the mood has shifted.

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This week begins with investors trying to do two things at once: enjoy the rally and pretend it is not watching the Strait of Hormuz every five minutes. U.S. stocks enter Monday's session after a strong prior week, with the Nasdaq up 2.4% and technology once again doing much of the heavy lifting. The S&P 500 is comfortably above where it stood before the latest Middle East conflict began, and Europe's Stoxx 600 has already climbed back above its late-February record.

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A pause, a passageway, and a promise to keep talking. That's essentially what's included in the Iran-US agreement released a few hours ago. It extends the April ceasefire by another 60 days and restores full maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, without the extra charges that had become one more tax on an already nervous global economy. Brent fell again, sliding toward $77 a barrel, its lowest level since early March. For markets, the agreement is less a breakthrough than a badly needed reduction in one of the world’s most expensive risks.

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Markets are trying to recover from a bruising selloff in chip stocks, helped by easing oil prices and hopes that a U.S.-Iran interim deal can calm inflation fears. But the bigger test comes from Washington, where Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair will show whether he can sound dovish enough for the White House without frightening bond investors.

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