This week will test whether Wall Street's artificial-intelligence boom still has enough substance to support its enormous price tag. Alphabet's results on Wednesday will be the main event. Tesla, Intel, Texas Instruments, and IBM are also due to report. IBM enters the week under particular scrutiny after losing roughly a quarter of its value following a profit warning last week. 

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The artificial-intelligence boom has reached an awkward stage. Companies are still spending extraordinary sums, chipmakers are still reporting strong demand, and the technology may still transform large parts of the economy. Yet investors want to know: Where are the returns?

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Thursday's market offered investors two very different versions of the American economy. The first came from the economic data, which showed consumers still spending and employers reluctant to lay off workers. The second came from the semiconductor sector, where shares continued to swing as if the future of artificial intelligence had to be repriced every few hours.

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How much should investors celebrate cooler inflation when oil is climbing again and the Middle East is becoming more dangerous? For now, the answer appears to be: quite a lot.

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For weeks, investors had learned to treat the conflict between the United States and Iran as dangerous background noise. Official statements were issued, contradicted and sometimes reversed before markets had time to react. That habit is now being tested.

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The coming week will test whether Wall Street's rally can survive three things it does not particularly enjoy: expensive oil, stubborn inflation and very high expectations.

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The semiconductor trade has regained control of the market, though control may be too generous a word for a sector that has spent the week swinging between sharp selloffs and equally sharp recoveries. Today's session is centered on SK Hynix, whose Nasdaq debut is testing whether investors still have room in their portfolios, and their imaginations, for another very large AI-related bet. The South Korean memory-chip maker raised roughly $26.5 billion by selling American depositary shares at $149 each. It is the largest U.S. listing by a foreign company and, following SpaceX’s debut last month, the second enormous share sale in a remarkably short period.

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The United States and Iran exchanged fire again overnight, with Washington saying it hit 90 military targets. Donald Trump said Iran had called him looking for a deal, though Tehran has not confirmed any new talks. That leaves investors with half-signals, official claims and silence from the other side. However, they do not seem too bothered, with futures up 0.3% for the S&P 500 and 1% for the Nasdaq.

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Donald Trump arrived at the NATO summit and blew up the market's quiet summer script, declaring the Iran deal dead, reigniting fears around the Strait of Hormuz and dragging oil, inflation and the Fed back into the same sentence. For investors, today is no longer about AI fatigue or chip rotation, but about a rally suddenly forced to price in war risk and alliance drama.

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Wall Street is opening with one eye on AI and the other on oil, which is not exactly the calmest way to start a Tuesday. Dow futures are up 0.3%, S&P 500 futures are flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.8%, as Samsung's huge profit jump somehow managed to make investors more nervous about the chip trade, not less. After a year of spectacular gains, even great numbers now have to clear a much higher bar.

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