A pause in the war with Iran has pulled oil back from $100 a barrel just as the United States enters one of the busiest market weeks of the year. The Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates Wednesday, the government will publish its first estimate of second-quarter GDP, and roughly one-third of the S&P 500 will report earnings. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also meet, because apparently the calendar had a little space left.

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Oil slipping back below $100 a barrel is enough to make Friday look calmer. U.S. stocks are set to stabilize after Thursday's sharp technology selloff, with the Dow leading the tentative rebound and the S&P 500 edging higher. The Nasdaq is barely moving after suffering its worst session in a month. Investors are dealing with three separate problems at once: an expensive technology sector, another round of tariffs and an oil shock that could complicate the Federal Reserve's job next week.

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Brent crude is once again flirting with $100 a barrel, and this time the threat is coming from both ends of the oil trade's most important corridor. Iran has already turned the Strait of Hormuz into a dangerous and unreliable passage. Now the Houthis are trying to do the same at Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow gateway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

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Alphabet reports after the close, and investors want more than another confident presentation about artificial intelligence. They want stronger cloud revenue, clearer evidence of commercial returns and some reassurance that capital spending will not keep rising indefinitely. The company has been given plenty of room to invest. The market is now asking to see the results.

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Wall Street entered Tuesday with two reasons for optimism, neither especially sturdy. Semiconductor stocks were extending their recovery from a brutal selloff, while mediators were trying to revive a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The Nasdaq was set to benefit most from that combination, though oil's return to around $90 a barrel suggested that investors were hardly convinced the Middle East crisis was easing.

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This week will test whether Wall Street's artificial-intelligence boom still has enough substance to support its enormous price tag. Alphabet's results on Wednesday will be the main event. Tesla, Intel, Texas Instruments, and IBM are also due to report. IBM enters the week under particular scrutiny after losing roughly a quarter of its value following a profit warning last week. 

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The artificial-intelligence boom has reached an awkward stage. Companies are still spending extraordinary sums, chipmakers are still reporting strong demand, and the technology may still transform large parts of the economy. Yet investors want to know: Where are the returns?

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Thursday's market offered investors two very different versions of the American economy. The first came from the economic data, which showed consumers still spending and employers reluctant to lay off workers. The second came from the semiconductor sector, where shares continued to swing as if the future of artificial intelligence had to be repriced every few hours.

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How much should investors celebrate cooler inflation when oil is climbing again and the Middle East is becoming more dangerous? For now, the answer appears to be: quite a lot.

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For weeks, investors had learned to treat the conflict between the United States and Iran as dangerous background noise. Official statements were issued, contradicted and sometimes reversed before markets had time to react. That habit is now being tested.

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