The technology trade is roaring back on Friday, but the rebound is becoming more selective. Amazon is surging after delivering the kind of growth investors wanted to see, while Apple is falling due to supply shortages.

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Prices cooled in June, but weak growth and expensive oil leave the central bank with an unusually awkward choice.

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Oil is rising, Iran is back in the headlines, the Federal Reserve is preparing to announce its latest decision, and roughly 100 major American and European companies are reporting results. Microsoft and Meta Platforms report after Wednesday's close, followed later this week by Amazon and Apple. Their results will be judged less by headline revenue than by what their enormous AI budgets are producing.

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Wall Street's artificial-intelligence boom has survived several scares since ChatGPT captured the public imagination in late 2022. Each time, investors decided that the rewards would justify almost any level of spending. Tuesday's session suggests that confidence is weakening again.

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A pause in the war with Iran has pulled oil back from $100 a barrel just as the United States enters one of the busiest market weeks of the year. The Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates Wednesday, the government will publish its first estimate of second-quarter GDP, and roughly one-third of the S&P 500 will report earnings. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also meet, because apparently the calendar had a little space left.

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Oil slipping back below $100 a barrel is enough to make Friday look calmer. U.S. stocks are set to stabilize after Thursday's sharp technology selloff, with the Dow leading the tentative rebound and the S&P 500 edging higher. The Nasdaq is barely moving after suffering its worst session in a month. Investors are dealing with three separate problems at once: an expensive technology sector, another round of tariffs and an oil shock that could complicate the Federal Reserve's job next week.

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Brent crude is once again flirting with $100 a barrel, and this time the threat is coming from both ends of the oil trade's most important corridor. Iran has already turned the Strait of Hormuz into a dangerous and unreliable passage. Now the Houthis are trying to do the same at Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow gateway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

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Alphabet reports after the close, and investors want more than another confident presentation about artificial intelligence. They want stronger cloud revenue, clearer evidence of commercial returns and some reassurance that capital spending will not keep rising indefinitely. The company has been given plenty of room to invest. The market is now asking to see the results.

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Wall Street entered Tuesday with two reasons for optimism, neither especially sturdy. Semiconductor stocks were extending their recovery from a brutal selloff, while mediators were trying to revive a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The Nasdaq was set to benefit most from that combination, though oil's return to around $90 a barrel suggested that investors were hardly convinced the Middle East crisis was easing.

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This week will test whether Wall Street's artificial-intelligence boom still has enough substance to support its enormous price tag. Alphabet's results on Wednesday will be the main event. Tesla, Intel, Texas Instruments, and IBM are also due to report. IBM enters the week under particular scrutiny after losing roughly a quarter of its value following a profit warning last week. 

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