The Trump-Xi meeting was meant to reassure investors, but it fell short. The two leaders talked, and the summit avoided a major blowup, but markets were looking for more than careful staging and diplomatic smiles. They wanted signs that Washington and Beijing could ease pressure on the global economy. Those signs never really came.

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Markets are rallying as Trump meets Xi, lifted by Nvidia, AI optimism, and hopes for a U.S.-China thaw. But Donald Trump goes to China with a weaker hand than he wants to admit…

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April's hotter-than-expected producer inflation has turned this week into a test of whether markets can keep looking past rising prices after yesterday's sharp CPI surprise. With rate-cut hopes fading, oil still tied to the Iran conflict, and Trump heading to Beijing for trade talks with Xi Jinping, investors are facing a less forgiving economic backdrop. Stocks may steady today, helped by a chip rebound and lower oil, but the bigger message is that inflation is back.

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Today's inflation report did not deliver a disaster, but confirmation that prices are still rising too fast, at exactly the wrong time. While headline inflation can be blamed on oil, war, shipping routes and bad luck, core inflation is harder to wave away. It tells us whether price pressure is spreading through the economy rather than simply arriving at the gas pump. So, today's data was not comforting.

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Investors face a crowded calendar in the week ahead: a stalled U.S.-Iran peace effort, oil above $100 a barrel, fresh inflation data, a high-stakes meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, and a corporate earnings season that has further cemented artificial intelligence as the dominant market narrative.

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This morning's US data gave investors a familiar problem: inflation remains sticky, wage growth looks firm, and the labor market appears too strong for the Fed to sound relaxed. At the same time, Big Tech earnings continue to show real resilience, leaving markets caught between solid corporate profits and an economic backdrop that argues against quick rate cuts.

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Wall Street enters Wednesday with a full plate: the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady, Jerome Powell is preparing what should be his final press conference as Fed chair, and four of the largest companies in America - Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta - will report earnings after the close. That is a lot for one trading day.

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Tuesday's session will test a market that has rallied despite little improvement in the risks around it. The conflict with Iran is still keeping pressure on oil, while the Fed is preparing to hold rates steady even as inflation risks become harder to dismiss. After a strong run for stocks, investors now have to decide whether earnings and the AI boom can carry the market through a more expensive and uncertain moment.

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Monday's session is the opening act of what may be one of the most consequential weeks of the year for U.S. markets. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday. Jerome Powell is expected to hold what may be his final press conference as Fed chair. Big Tech earnings arrive in force. Oil is climbing again after U.S.-Iran peace efforts stalled. 

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Wall Street is trying to regain its footing after a recent rebound began to lose some force. The S&P 500 and Europe's Stoxx 600 have risen in only one of the past four sessions. Investors are no longer buying everything simply because it has a ticker symbol and a pulse. But in one corner of the market, the mood remains almost aggressively enthusiastic: semiconductors. The chip sector has now posted 17 straight gains. 

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