The Market Screener

Wall Street has spent weeks defying expectations, with stocks climbing despite punishing borrowing costs. But the real threat may be coming from oil. A barrel is back above $105 today as tensions escalate, and if prices keep rising, Wall Street's remarkable resilience could finally crack.

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Wall Street is breaking records, but the celebrations are becoming more and more exclusive. The large companies are making a profit, which is sufficient to ignore the harsh bond yields. But smaller stocks, long-duration assets and highly indebted businesses are being left behind. Can an index remain this healthy when so much of what lies beneath it is not?

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Wall Street seems to be getting its groove back today: oil prices are dropping, Treasury yields have pulled back, albeit slightly, from their most recent highs, and the artificial-intelligence sector is still strong enough to drive the Nasdaq to record levels. Stocks and bond yields are still climbing in tandem, supported by the strength of the US economy.

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This week, the most important question for the markets is whether the U.S. economy is becoming weak enough to relieve some pressure on the Fed without causing serious harm to corporate profits. Friday's jobs report changed that debate a lot. Meanwhile, political risk is becoming a major market force.

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Growth has proved to be better than had been anticipated, but the most recent employment data shows that the labour market is not as strong as it seemed just a few hours ago.

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Investors face a rather unusual situation at the start of October: the economy appears to be strong enough to underpin corporate profits, but at the same time, perhaps too strong to ease the burden of high borrowing costs.

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This morning, the Fed received a complicated set of U.S. economic data, which showed that inflation had been softer than expected but growth has been considerably stronger.

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With only two sessions left in September, a month investors tend to dislike, the S&P 500 is nearly back to where it was at the start of the month. It has still risen by 12.2% this year, an impressive performance given the challenges markets have faced.

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The economic calendar should usually be sufficient to keep investors occupied. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve's favored inflation indicator is released, with the September jobs report coming up on Friday. Together, these two figures should help establish whether or not the Fed really needs to increase rates again in October. Yet once again the markets are going through every calculation via the Strait of Hormuz.

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Artificial intelligence is doing much of the heavy lifting right now. The Nasdaq 100 has gained more than 5% over the past month. The Russell 2000, home to smaller American companies that depend much more heavily on borrowing conditions and domestic demand, has fallen about 5%. That roughly 10-point gap over such a short period is uncommon.

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